|
|
FlySurfer said...
doggie: what kind of capacitor do you propose he use?
Flux is correct but the biggest one you can lay your hands on!! 
|
|
|
pweedas said...
Gestalt said...
looking at your figures i beleive there are some flaws.
Yes I know. These are ball park facts and figures to illustrate the point.
I have previously done more accurate analysis and it comes up the same.
Please show these figures?
you haven't quoted the cost of electricity that we pay at the wall, there is no allowance for tarrifs etc.
That's right. Because these tarrifs might make it a better deal for YOU, but they don't make the overall system financially viable for everyone.
It just means you are taking the money off someone else to make YOUR system pay.
Who are we taking money off...you? If you're talking about people that refuse to install solar panels, or don't believe that we're dragging too much coal out of the ground...I'll gladly take their money.
i also don't think you have taken into account selling the power back to the grid.
Yes I did. That's one of the points I was trying to make.
YOUR system is only viable IFF you can sell it back to the grid at a price very much higher than the electicity companies can produce the power themselves.
They will only do this while being forced to by the government.
The government recognises this and they realise it can very quickly become top heavy and run them broke.
That is why they have 'grandfather clauses' on the return to grid deals. They automatically expire in a few years.
That's not really suitable when it is clear that it will take 20 to 40 years for you to break even.
None of us have a crystal ball, but if anything the buyback will only increase as the government realise that we are going to run out of power.
also, 1kw system is not really recommended. it used to be 1.5-2kw and now houses are starting to use 4kw and some 8kw.
That's true. The bigger systems do become slightly more cost efficient, but only slightly.
The reason is that a bigger system costs a lot more. They can run up to $30,000 total cost for a large system.
The government will subsides you more for this but the point I am making is that basing your assessment on a post subsidy price is false logic.
It's a pretend result overall. SOmebody will have to pay for it in the end.
There is "NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH".
I had one today...boss paid!
you also haven't taken into account the increase in cost of power over the time that the solar array is functioning.
it's a complex issue
It is. That's why it is so easy for the real situation to be made obscur. And that's what is happening
I think you ran out of answers there...nothing factual, just a bland comment! Power WILL increase, and as the tariffs are factored on a percentage, the arrays will provide more financial gain as the cost rises.
then when that is all done,
take the cost of the array and stick it in the bank and see how much interest you get over the period.
Yes. But take the REAL cost of the system and put that in the bank and see how much you have in 30 years.
OR
Better still, take the REAL cost of the system and invest it either nuclear power or at least in research in nuclear power and see how much it is worth in 30 years.
The sad reality is that since all the negative pulicity around nuclear power over the last 30 years, research into cleaner and safer nuclear power has all but ceased.
This has put us 30 years behind where we should be today.
Even with the small amount spent on it, we now have reliable technology for 4th generation nuclear reactors which are 10 times more efficient and cleaner and intrinsically safer than the 2nd and 3rd gen nuclear reactors.
The whole point is,.. we need a reliable and guarranteed continuous supply of energy to remain a first world country.
Solar, wind and wave power does NOT give us this.
Today is 37 degrees, overcast and no wind.
Everyone has their air cons on, their computers running. etc etc.
What are you going to do?
Tell them that due to prevailing conditions you will have to turn everything off until conditions improve?
I don't think so.
To cater for this situation, the power companies still have to build their generators EXACTLY the same size and capacity that they would if there was NO solar, NO wind and NO wave power.
It saves them NOTHING.
Agree on the nuclear thingy...but also that there hasn't been enough research on it yet. Large wind turbines are more efficient than solar (not at a domestic scale), but municipal authorities don't allow them within residential areas, and they require a large amount of maintenance.
In a residential home, the best advice for reducing power usage - insulate, double glazing, thermal mass, draft seals, eaves/shading (vegetation), cross ventilation...and using the sun's rays to provide power/hot water. If you're looking at doing these things to your home in an economical sense, forget it, it'll probably cost more $ than you'll make back, but your quality of living will increase, and your bills will reduce! We all hope that someone comes along with all the magical answers to global warming, energy crisis...I'm happy with my solar panels for now. 
|
|
|
The most effective way to reduce your energy bills is to build your new house with the correct orientation. So invest a little more and hire an architect next time and they will also take care of everything else to ensure your house is green 
|
|
|
Sailhack said...
pweedas said...
Gestalt said...
looking at your figures i beleive there are some flaws.
Yes I know. These are ball park facts and figures to illustrate the point.
I have previously done more accurate analysis and it comes up the same.
Please show these figures?
OK.
These are from a year ago.
The financial situation changes often as both state and federal governments shuffle the cups to make them appear more environmentally "green". State rebates, federal rebates, gross or net feed in tarrifs, etc.
However, regardless of how they shuffle the cups, they always have to add up to the cost of the system because noone makes, delivers and installs them for free.
In doing this it makes it hard to assess what the real cost is.
I took the total cost of a 1Kw system to be $12,000. (before rebates etc.)
(and I also know they are getting cheaper.)
The cost of electricity is 15 cents per Kwhr.
A 1 kw system delivers 4kwhrs of energy per day ON AVERAGE over a year.
I know they quote higher than this and on a nice cool but sunny day you can get about 4.5 to 5kwhrs out of a 1kw system. But then on a cold rainy day you will get 0 kwhrs out. And on many others you will get maybe 1 or 2.
Let's be generous and stick with the 4kwhrs average.
4kwhrs from the grid will cost you 4 X 15 cents = 60 cents per day.
= .6 X 365 dollars per year. i.e. a whole $219 per year.
which means $12,000 / $219 = 55 years to break even.
That's if nothing goes wrong with it in 54 years.
And i wouldn't betting on that. Well, actually., I would.
I bet it wont last that long. 
One good lightning strike anywhere close to your place will probably snott the inverter. So there's another 2000 to 3000 payout, and you don't get a rebate on that.
If the price of electricity doubles, then the time is halved. Still makes it 27 years to break even.
If the price of the system halves, it still makes it 27 years to break even.
If the price of electricity doubles and the price of the system halves, that makes it 13 years to break even. (getting better.)
etc etc.
You can see that we require some major movement in prices before it becomes a viable alternative.
That is what the govermnet is trying to do artificially by all these rebates and high feed in tarrifs. But in the end it has to be paid for and WE will pay it.
That is the overall financial side of it.
Is is good for you personally?
If it makes you feel good as you go past the inverter and hear it humming away on a sunny day, and the meter says you are pumping out 947 watts into the grid, then do it. I know what it feels like. And as someone said, money is not everything.
But if you think that it is the answer to all our energy problems and will save the planet if everyone does it, I think you are wrong.
The figures do not support that view.
|
|
|
I notice no mention of the cost of building the power plant. According to this site
http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeCostOfNuclearPower
Current nuclear plants are costing around US$3500 per KW to build despite optimistic forecasts, which means the solar setup isn't actually doing to badly for the government on these 4KW systems, especially if you factor in the amount of power lost during transmission over the grid. (and how much does the grid cost to maintain?)
Anyhoo, this argument could go on and on.
|
|
|
And will..
|
|
|
doggie said...
And will..
not arguing guys...just friendly exchange of knowledge, facts & ideas. 
pweedas...our feed-in rate is 60c per kw/h, and with a 1.4kw system (and it's a hybrid-crystalline, not mono-crystalline, as I first mentioned), we produce (on avg, taken from a local builder, who installed his system over a year ago) - 6kwh per day, and even on those black/stormy days - (very uncommon for Vic. though  ) our panels make about 1-2kwh!
...so that's a payback of - $1,315 per yr
the total cost of system from our pocket (which is the main factor here) - $7,500
Paid for in 5.7yrs!
As I mentioned earlier, add interest if borrowing, and it's not as attractive.
The panels have a 25yr warranty, and the inverter has a 5yr warranty (extendable to 12yr)...we're hoping it doesn't get "snotted" in 5.1yrs! 
As for Nuclear power, if it comes, Portland has been pencilled in as one of the first in Vic, due to the large amount of power Alcoa drags from the grid, and it would be welcomed by most - I don't know much about fusion, so sitting on fence on that one, but more than happy to support it if it's as good as you/they say. I hope it's not like all the wind farms that are around here...great for small-scale electricity production, but if we're looking at the cost - manufacturing & maintenance is huge.
As for a good feeling, yeah, it does make me feel good that I don't get a power bill anymore, even if it takes over 5 years to break even...electricity will go up, so I'm confident that the $7.5k investment was worth it
...if it all turns to sh!t, so be it...it won't cost any more than what I've outlayed, besides, it's only money and that's not a concern to me, as long as the wind keeps blowing.
|
|
|
I just looked at it for the block of flats we live in. There are four flats and 3 out of 4 are owner occupied.
My idea was for each of us to have a 1.5 kw system and to run them all through the house power. The strata would pay and benefit from it and as all flat owners own the strata and pay the levies we would benefit from power generated.
An installer advised me this cannot be done as a subsidy can only be claimed per electricity meter and residence. He advised we could go for a 10 kw system for about $50K or a 6kw system for about $30K. Four individual 1.5kw systems would cost about $6000 each after subsidy.
Bit of a pity as it would have been quite efficient to have one inverter and meter for four dwellings.
|
|
|
|
landyacht said...
last june we had a 3kw system installed on the roof in kalgoorlie, and weve just got our first bill
29/7/09-20/11/09 $63.80 CR. 
the system is angled 35degrees to the west of north , so get best performance in the afternoon,. winter seems to get 8-10 kwh per day and summer gives 18-19kwh per day.
it get dusty here so a fortnightly wash is required.
our nxt bill should have the months when the evaporative Aircon gets used so it will be interesting to compare
next bill 21/11/09-22/01/10 add $56.85CR for a running total of $120.65CR 
this was helped by the biggest output from us being 350units @29.06c per unit
next month will have a stinking hot feb when 2 daughters were home and living under the aircon.. when we did our monthly readings we found that this was the first month that our input had exceeded output( by 19 units)
we checked with synergy and they reckon if you stay over $100.00 credit for 3 months the computer will send a cheque, but you can also request payment if over $100.00
|
|
|
Is that a tax free $100.00?
|
|
|
Sailhack said...
doggie said...
And will..
...so that's a payback of - $1,315 per yr
the total cost of system from our pocket (which is the main factor here) - $7,500
Paid for in 5.7yrs!
Isn't the main factor whether or not we (society) are getting a good deal? The fact that your payback is 5.7 years is pretty irrelevant isn't if the taxpayer is wearing another 20 years of the payback (which may have been better of spent investing in other decentralised methods of power generation). Note: I made the 20 years bit up - I have no idea what the subsidy was and maybe taking that into account it's only a 5.8 yr payback. I just think it's a bit of a misguided view that as long as you are getting a decent payback everything is alright.
|
|
|
Trant said...
I notice no mention of the cost of building the power plant. According to this site
http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeCostOfNuclearPower
Current nuclear plants are costing around US$3500 per KW to build despite optimistic forecasts, which means the solar setup isn't actually doing to badly for the government on these 4KW systems, especially if you factor in the amount of power lost during transmission over the grid. (and how much does the grid cost to maintain?)
Anyhoo, this argument could go on and on.
the cost to build the power plant is factored into the 15c/kwh you pay for electricity... plus a margin for profit.
power companies aren't charities you know.
|
|
|
dirty harry, yeah I guess you're right re; taxpayer's dollars, but in the scheme of things, we pay for so much now with our tax dollars, this is a way that I can re-coup some of that coin...and at least it's going toward a god cause (not just talking about reducing my solar bill either), reducing fossil fuel usage, research into green energy etc. which IMO is better than the billions of dollars that are wasted on other expenses the government see fit to use our taxes for.
|
|
|
landyacht said...
this was helped by the biggest output from us being 350units @29.06c per unit
29.06 cents per unit ! 
The power stations can spit this stuff out for 2 cents per unit.
No wonder the tax man keeps sending me demands for obscene ammounts of cash !
Landyotty, turn the bloody thing off ! You're sending me broke.
|
|
|
our WA power stations may be selling it for 2c , which would help to explain why Griffin went bust.
I think of it this way. the infrastructure to supply Kalgoorlie. and probably WA is already unable to do so. . building more giant power stations isnt working environmentally. so why do we keep doing it?.
The figure Ive been told is that a 1km2 solar farm here in Kal could mean that for part of each day we could be sending power back down the 700km line to Muja, and it would fit on the rooftops of the houses!
Yet we dont do it because the state is too busy thinking till the next election , rather than the next century .A couple of christmases ago the Govt gave every body a handout to the tune of $8.4B? to help boost the economy. imagine if that had been used to reopen a solar panel factory to produce parts that then get stuck on suitable roofs all over the country. apart from making people more aware of the power they consume, it might have even saved even more billions on building more power stations
|
|
|
|
Pweedas, its a bit rich to be comparing a small distributed solar system to the economics of a coal or nuclear station 500,000 x bigger. (Anyway those calcs are a wee bit low..standardised prices are more like 4c US coal, 6c US nuclear..however huge deviations in nuclear where build costs can and do double..also the cost of government indemnity insurance is not included which would effectively kill the economics of nuclear..not one state in the world has a nuclear power industry without heavy government support)
A. A household does not have access to the wholesale electrcity market and so the cost of power is significantly higher than that which u can buy from large centralized power station. Maybe 75% of retail price of power is transmission and distribution.
B. Not all power is created equal, and there is a place for many different types of generation..How much do you think peaking gas stations cost to run? Solar correlates extremely well with peak demand in Australia (according to some Californian studies with similar climate; between 60-75%).. In the WA market this fact could mean $150/kW/year if they decided to treat small-scale embedded generation fairly..
The notion that the stability of the grid requires dispatchable fossil (or nuclear) generation is the domain of the dinosaurs. Do you know that half of all outages from large coal stations in the US are unplanned.. (about 7% of the time or 600hrs a year), what do you think a sudden loss of 500,000-1000,000kW does to the grid?
Yet the grid goes on because it has been designed to cope with the loss of these colossal relics. An intermittent resource..even big bad unpredictable wind is a blip on the radar when they experience a 20%..even 50% loss in power to a wind farm..particularly with decent forecasting. Somehow those clever Danes manage to have 20% wind integration despite its unreliability..at a cost to the network less than what Australian networks charge for 2%!
Or somehow believe that running a power station at one speed suits the demand profile better, the problem with integrating more renewables in is that these old fossils are so intractable in terms of output that you can't switch them off when using wind is cheaper!! True story look it up. In NZ the company I work for has wee switching devices to automatically cut power to processes when frequency drops because of power station outages..its called Demand-side management, and hardly rocket science.
There is my rant!! Think outside of the box rather than devoting all energy to remaining within it..you might be surprised about what you find. Kudos to those people who've put those lovely shiny things on your roof. It's helped to build an industry, and force networks into thinking about it too.
|
|
|
pweedas said...
japie said...
You guys who have broached the wall may not recoup your investments but you are beating a path toward sustainability.
I hate to burst your bubble but,..
Solar power on the roof with the current technology does nothing more than make the householder feel good. "We're saving the planet!"
It's a bit like washing out the cat food tins for recycling. A total waste of time, effort and water but hey, what the heck! "In this house, We RECYCLE!".
Recycling is good, right?
The only thing that makes solar power viable today is that a huge proportion of the cost is covered by someone else. i.e anyone who doesn't have it, via the government subsidies.
This does NOT make it an efficient solution to the environmental problem.
It is more like a pyramid selling scheme. They are intrinsically unsound and eventually collapse under their own weight.
Let's look at solar power.
The real cost of even a small 1kw system is around $10,000 to $12,000, maybe more, although they are coming down.
Under ideal conditions a 1kw system will generate about 4 kilowatt hours of electricity per day, iff you are lucky. That's when it is new and the panels are clean and in good condition.
4 Kwhrs can be generated at a conventional power station for about 2 cents per unit.
Nuclear power comes in slightly higher. Let's be pessimistic and say 4 cents per Kwhr.
They can generate it and sell it to you via the grid for about 15 cents per kwhr.
AT 15 cents per kwhr you will need to generate 10,000 / .15 =66,666 kwhrs of power before the system breaks even.
At 4 kwhrs per day this will take 66,666 / 4 =16,666 days = 45 years! just to break even.
The panels don't last that long.
The electronics will not last that long.
The whole thing is a "feel good" exercise conducted by the government to make people believe that they have everything under control.
It is no more than standing on the roof and pithing on you and telling you that it's raining. 
Why?
Because in the final wash, it is YOU who pay for it. 
The government might give it to you for free but while they give it to you with one hand they will take it from you with the other.
They have to.
They don't produce anything to sell themselves. They just take the money they need off you.
The only viable near and long term solution is nuclear power.
Unfortunately, in the near term this will have to be from nuclear fission,
but in the long term it will be from nuclear fusion, a very clean and hugely abundant and efficient form of power.
Every day, month and year that we fart around with wind power, (pun intended)
burn a hole in our pockets with solar power,
or wash ourselves down the drain with wave power,
it is another day and dollar wasted that could have been spent on taking us down the right path.
Solar power is NOT the right path.
Sailing ships and windmills were not abandoned because the wind stopped blowing.
It just became obvious that it was hugely unreliable.
Same with solar power.
Same with wave power.
Nuclear huh ?
Is uranium not also a finite resource (like coal or oil) ??
Wind power would actually seem to be the more sensible for a sustainable future, as the solar panles are also made from a finite resource and cost a sh!t load to produce, as well as create a whole lot of pollution in the process.
|
|
|
au_rick said...
[Sailing ships and windmills were not abandoned because the wind stopped blowing.
It just became obvious that it was hugely unreliable.
Same with solar power.
Same with wave power.
my recollection , was that coal and oil were endless and cheap, then of course in only 100years they used up all the good coal,and the oil got to peak supply, so now they have to fight wars to get a share of the last of it
|
|
|
au_rick said...
Nuclear huh ?
Is uranium not also a finite resource (like coal or oil) ??
Wind power would actually seem to be the more sensible for a sustainable future, as the solar panles are also made from a finite resource and cost a sh!t load to produce, as well as create a whole lot of pollution in the process.
Yes, Uranium is a finite resource and there is not a lot of it.
However, even with the known reserves and the old 3rd generation reactors it is sufficient to give us 30 to 50 years of power.
There is probably a huge ammount of undiscovered reserves because since the market has been choked off by bad press and protest, almost nobody bothers to look for it.
Fortunately, due to an inate desire to blow our planet to smithereens back in the 1950s to 1990, we now have a ready made highly refined source of uranium in the form of the ICBM warheads which are now being recycled into uranium to run power stations.
It seem that holding sufficient nuclear bombs to blow the world apart 100 times over has finally been recognised as a slight overkill and a large proportion of the misile warheads are now destined to be recycled for peaceful purposes.
I can't remember how long this will power the present reactors but I think it might be around 30 years.
That's just if we stick with the present nuclear reactor technology.
There is a 4th generation design which they say can use the spent fuel from the 3rd gen. reactors and with this technology the reactors can get about 10 times the power from the same amount of uranium.
It was also said that with this technology there is enough uranium already mined and in stock to provide the world power requirements for most of this century.
This should be more than enough time to get fusion reactors up and running.
If not, they can start mining it again and give us another 200 years.
The problem has been that with all the bad press and protests regarding the use of nuclear fuel for any purpose at all, the technology development was choked off soon after birth so we are still fuddling around with technology which is now 20 to 30 years behind where it should be by now.
The decision to go down this path of power generation by good old safe, clean and secure coal and oil fired power stations has now turned around and is biting us in the bum.
If the politicians had thought ahead further than the next election it should have been obvious that it one day would, but I guess they were happy so long as it didn't come home to roost on their watch. They were right it didn't.
However, that particular chicken has now come home to roost and is circling overhead with a 30 year case of chronic constipation, just looking for somewhere to dump it.
So what are we doing about it?
We are running around looking for umbrellas in the form of a few megawatts of wind power or solar power or wave power when the need is for gigawatts.
Wind, solar and wave are just not going to cut the mustard.
We either turn off the 3000 watt aircons, 500 watt plasma tvs, 300 watt computers, (hang on, i'll just finnish this first.  ) or we initiate a changeover to a power source which can reliably provide that sort of energy output without gassing the planet with its exhaust.
And at the moment that has to be nuclear fission reactors because that's all we've got.
In the future it will be clean, pollution free nuclear fusion reactors which we do not yet have because no one will put up the cash for developement.
That is very short sighted.
|
|
|
This puts a different perspective on nuclear.
Hybrid fusion, a blend of fission and fusion, sounds promising.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20527505.900-hybrid-fusion-the-third-nuclear-option.html
|
|
|
In the mean time, go solar and get the Gov green loan if you qualify of course, I just got a new job and will be doing it.
GT
|
|
|