Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...

Corona Virus - We are all going to get it.

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Created by Crusoe 3 months ago, 12 Mar 2020
holy guacamole
1146 posts
21 Mar 2020 10:20AM
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Yes Harrow and going on what I said a week ago about their woeful health care system it's a recipe for disaster.

I suspect the reported cases are the tip of the iceberg.

Before long you'll see the army carting truckloads of bodies like in Italy.

But then again, as that moron Trump said, "it's a hoax".

unclethirsty
337 posts
21 Mar 2020 12:01PM
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It's true...


FormulaNova
NSW, 11064 posts
21 Mar 2020 3:22PM
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Here's an aticle that shows there is some hope, although I guess its hard to duplicate:

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048

Harrow
NSW, 3423 posts
21 Mar 2020 3:47PM
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FormulaNova said..
Here's an aticle that shows there is some hope, although I guess its hard to duplicate:

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048

I think it's the key. Shut down the world for a month, 100% testing, and isolate all cases. Otherwise, the slow burn is going to be much more painful. The half measures we have are going to do nothing but prolong it, ultimately hurting people a lot more, both financially and health-wise.

It won't be long before people everywhere will be asking for it to happen. Bill Ackman already is. In a week, there will be 5,000 dying per day, and the week after that it will be 20,000 per day - more than all the infectious diseases around the world combined, (but not as bad as the flu, I wouldn't suggest that). At that point, it will be obvious what needs to be done. It's just a shame we just don't do it now, and save not just a lot lives, but minimise the financial damage that is also happening with this slow-motion train wreck.

holy guacamole
1146 posts
21 Mar 2020 1:33PM
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Harrow said..

FormulaNova said..
Here's an aticle that shows there is some hope, although I guess its hard to duplicate:

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048


I think it's the key. Shut down the world for a month, 100% testing, and isolate all cases. Otherwise, the slow burn is going to be much more painful. The half measures we have are going to do nothing but prolong it, ultimately hurting people a lot more, both financially and health-wise.

It won't be long before people everywhere will be asking for it to happen. Bill Ackman already is. In a week, there will be 5,000 dying per day, and the week after that it will be 20,000 per day - more than all the infectious diseases around the world combined, (but not as bad as the flu, I wouldn't suggest that). At that point, it will be obvious what needs to be done. It's just a shame we just don't do it now, and save not just a lot lives, but minimise the financial damage that is also happening with this slow-motion train wreck.


Nah shouldn't we all go to the footy and Hillsong one more time?

Kamikuza
QLD, 5425 posts
21 Mar 2020 4:45PM
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100% testing



Serious question which I can't find an answer to - why is this necessary?

FormulaNova
NSW, 11064 posts
21 Mar 2020 5:45PM
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Harrow said..

FormulaNova said..
Here's an aticle that shows there is some hope, although I guess its hard to duplicate:

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048


I think it's the key. Shut down the world for a month, 100% testing, and isolate all cases. Otherwise, the slow burn is going to be much more painful. The half measures we have are going to do nothing but prolong it, ultimately hurting people a lot more, both financially and health-wise.

It won't be long before people everywhere will be asking for it to happen. Bill Ackman already is. In a week, there will be 5,000 dying per day, and the week after that it will be 20,000 per day - more than all the infectious diseases around the world combined, (but not as bad as the flu, I wouldn't suggest that). At that point, it will be obvious what needs to be done. It's just a shame we just don't do it now, and save not just a lot lives, but minimise the financial damage that is also happening with this slow-motion train wreck.


I suspect that the difficulty in getting the test kits are the current problem. They seem to reserve them only for cases where they think the odds are higher of infection, and as we agree, it should be used to test everyone and isolate everyone that has it.

Lets hope that test kits that now seem to come in faster versions are also going to become available in the number needed to test everyone.

I would even argue that if you spent $millions or even more, pumping these things out, you would have a better outcome than whatever it is that our government is doing now.

From that article in Italy that I posted, they were surprised that a lot more people had it than showed symptoms, so it shows you it is critical to test everyone as just one that slips through could result in moe infections.

FormulaNova
NSW, 11064 posts
21 Mar 2020 5:46PM
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Kamikuza said..



100% testing




Serious question which I can't find an answer to - why is this necessary?


Did you read the article that I posted above about a town in Italy? Testing everyone there seems to suggest it is a way to success.

Why, are you suggesting otherwise?

Kamikuza
QLD, 5425 posts
21 Mar 2020 5:39PM
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FormulaNova said..




Kamikuza said..











100% testing








Serious question which I can't find an answer to - why is this necessary?






Did you read the article that I posted above about a town in Italy? Testing everyone there seems to suggest it is a way to success.

Why, are you suggesting otherwise?





Not at all. Aside from getting more accurate statistics, I don't see what benefit it would be and wonder what I'm missing.

I'll read it then.

EDIT: OK so it seems like more specific quarantining is the result. 3,300 people isn't a big job though, and while it's impressive what South Korea has done, I can't imagine it's easy, cheap or sustainable. Yet.

tarquin1
395 posts
21 Mar 2020 4:12PM
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There is a lot of talk about this town in Italy here in France. The doctors here are saying on a small scale it works. On a large scale it's just too complicated and wont work. If you test and confine daily you will stop the spread. You can imagine the complications of trying to do this for millions of people.
South Korea seems to be having good results with it. They went straight into action in producing test kits back in January and setting up test stations everywhere.
Italy has now passed China in deaths and the daily number in Italy is still rising, China is going down.
France is a week or two behind Italy and it's already bad here. Will the confinement work or are we going to see the same as Italy?

damned67
181 posts
21 Mar 2020 6:10PM
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Reported cases are definitely the very tip of the iceberg - if you don't test, you don't test positive.
And this is not to take away from the seriousness of the matter. We could easily end up like Italy where people are simply dying due to the health system being overwhelmed. Without question, we can end up there.

That said, saying 'we're all gonna get it' is complete BS.
Currently there's ~250,000 positive cases WORLDWIDE (that have been tested, I'll give you that).
Population of Hubei province (where Wuhan is) is ~58,000,000.
Worldwide cases are less than 5% of the population of Hubei province.

I'll also add that numbers are all BS too. If testing is restricted (and it is insanely restricted in Oz), numbers mean nothing.
'Numbers' show that less that 1% of the population of Italy are infected - but look at the outcome! (Ok, really need to look at it regionally, but the numbers aren't really available re: regional population and number of infections)

It's all about reducing that peak and not overwheling the health care system - but based on the current data, if we all behave and take the right measures, infection rate will be relatively low. Our doubling rate is currently around 4 days. 6 days would be much better, but we're still tracking well below most other countries (US, UK etc).

psychojoe
VIC, 760 posts
21 Mar 2020 9:53PM
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damned67 said..
Reported cases are definitely the very tip of the iceberg - if you don't test, you don't test positive.
And this is not to take away from the seriousness of the matter. We could easily end up like Italy where people are simply dying due to the health system being overwhelmed. Without question, we can end up there.

That said, saying 'we're all gonna get it' is complete BS.
Currently there's ~250,000 positive cases WORLDWIDE (that have been tested, I'll give you that).
Population of Hubei province (where Wuhan is) is ~58,000,000.
Worldwide cases are less than 5% of the population of Hubei province.

I'll also add that numbers are all BS too. If testing is restricted (and it is insanely restricted in Oz), numbers mean nothing.
'Numbers' show that less that 1% of the population of Italy are infected - but look at the outcome! (Ok, really need to look at it regionally, but the numbers aren't really available re: regional population and number of infections)

It's all about reducing that peak and not overwheling the health care system - but based on the current data, if we all behave and take the right measures, infection rate will be relatively low. Our doubling rate is currently around 4 days. 6 days would be much better, but we're still tracking well below most other countries (US, UK etc).


Just not sure how you figure doubling every six days will be much better. Even if we had 10 new cases each day now that would still mean more than 40,000 new cases each day in under 12 weeks

Boardwalk
QLD, 16 posts
21 Mar 2020 9:20PM
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Plenty of lay opinions on response to Covid 19. I favour endgame C as in link below, makes a lot of sense.

Other options favour the hedgers who believe that they can maintain a "business as usual ,with a few tweaks" approach to hopefully maintain the status quo.

"Unprecedented" means just that and the response needs to be unprecedented. In other words, something we've never done and not doing a lot of what we are currently doing.

Yetthose calling the shots are in a "wait-see-minimal response"rythm which just confuses the fu#k out of the population and sees overreaction ( panic buying) and conversely, underreaction ( lets go and rub shoulders at Bondi).

theconversation.com/the-case-for-endgame-c-stop-almost-everything-restart-when-coronavirus-is-gone-134232

cauncy
WA, 7898 posts
21 Mar 2020 8:43PM
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Harrow said..


FormulaNova said..
Here's an aticle that shows there is some hope, although I guess its hard to duplicate:

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048



I think it's the key. Shut down the world for a month, 100% testing, and isolate all cases. Otherwise, the slow burn is going to be much more painful. The half measures we have are going to do nothing but prolong it, ultimately hurting people a lot more, both financially and health-wise.

It won't be long before people everywhere will be asking for it to happen. Bill Ackman already is. In a week, there will be 5,000 dying per day, and the week after that it will be 20,000 per day - more than all the infectious diseases around the world combined, (but not as bad as the flu, I wouldn't suggest that). At that point, it will be obvious what needs to be done. It's just a shame we just don't do it now, and save not just a lot lives, but minimise the financial damage that is also happening with this slow-motion train wreck.



Spot on, I own 2 cafes 12 staff and want this approach, inc closing all schools , as we all know schools are a breeding ground for colds flues etc, however the wealth before health minded won't follow through
,to me this highlight the sad fact that we carnt afford to look after out loved ones when these problems arise, the banks really do have us by the balls, allowing this to be slowly dragged out will strangle us slowly

FormulaNova
NSW, 11064 posts
22 Mar 2020 10:44AM
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Has anyone seen a graph showing the increase in Covid19 cases state-by-state in Aus, day by day?

It would be interesting to see how each state is comparing against the others, and may show up the effectiveness of each state's response.

I want to see how Tassie and NT are coping, in comparison to NSW. I think NSW is going to have the toughest time, and I think Tassie probably the best, followed by NT. Having small populations and effective barriers, are obviously going to help.

Maybe NSW needs to divide the state into sections and stop interaction. Then divide Sydney, and then divide it again, until they can isolate areas where there are cases. I guess this goes against this whole voluntary self-isolation non-policy though.

Boardwalk
QLD, 16 posts
22 Mar 2020 11:49AM
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Most rational discussion I've heard.

holy guacamole
1146 posts
22 Mar 2020 12:27PM
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This is what happens when you go soft and late...three weeks too late.



lotofwind
NSW, 5692 posts
22 Mar 2020 3:40PM
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Looks like most states now going into lock down. Only necessary travel between states, only supermarkets, chemists and medical allowed open. Everything else closed.

Harrow
NSW, 3423 posts
22 Mar 2020 3:56PM
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lotofwind said..
Looks like most states now going into lock down. Only necessary travel between states, only supermarkets, chemists and medical allowed open. Everything else closed.

Useful when you don't have it already in your state. But each state already has it, and the government has been so busy telling people not to worry that we are so complacent we are still managing to double the number of cases faster and faster. We're screwed. Unless we close the schools and do proper lockdown at a home level, there'll be a half-million dead Australians in 3 to 4 months. Predictions are for the ICU beds to run out in the first or second week in April. Good luck to those who need care after that, let's see where the death rate ends up after that.

psychojoe
VIC, 760 posts
22 Mar 2020 4:33PM
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Harrow said..

Useful when you don't have it already in your state. But each state already has it, and the government has been so busy telling people not to worry that we are so complacent we are still managing to double the number of cases faster and faster. We're screwed. Unless we close the schools and do proper lockdown at a home level, there'll be a half-million dead Australians in 3 to 4 months. Predictions are for the ICU beds to run out in the first or second week in April. Good luck to those who need care after that, let's see where the death rate ends up after that.


I can't be the only one that's ok with millions dying before tax time. If those numbers include me, so be it, I probably shouldn't have been born in the first place. I'm honest, I owe nothing other than money. I've never wasted an opportunity to go kiting. I'm at peace.

Bananabender
QLD, 1148 posts
22 Mar 2020 5:08PM
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lotofwind said..
Looks like most states now going into lock down. Only necessary travel between states, only supermarkets, chemists and medical allowed open. Everything else closed.


When you say most you mean all ,except Queensland. They'll be looking at political implications.

damned67
181 posts
22 Mar 2020 3:16PM
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FormulaNova said..
Has anyone seen a graph showing the increase in Covid19 cases state-by-state in Aus, day by day?

It would be interesting to see how each state is comparing against the others, and may show up the effectiveness of each state's response.

I want to see how Tassie and NT are coping, in comparison to NSW. I think NSW is going to have the toughest time, and I think Tassie probably the best, followed by NT. Having small populations and effective barriers, are obviously going to help.

Maybe NSW needs to divide the state into sections and stop interaction. Then divide Sydney, and then divide it again, until they can isolate areas where there are cases. I guess this goes against this whole voluntary self-isolation non-policy though.


Like on this page?:
www.covid19data.com.au/

Chris 249
NSW, 2451 posts
22 Mar 2020 8:35PM
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cauncy said..

Harrow said..



FormulaNova said..
Here's an aticle that shows there is some hope, although I guess its hard to duplicate:

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048




I think it's the key. Shut down the world for a month, 100% testing, and isolate all cases. Otherwise, the slow burn is going to be much more painful. The half measures we have are going to do nothing but prolong it, ultimately hurting people a lot more, both financially and health-wise.

It won't be long before people everywhere will be asking for it to happen. Bill Ackman already is. In a week, there will be 5,000 dying per day, and the week after that it will be 20,000 per day - more than all the infectious diseases around the world combined, (but not as bad as the flu, I wouldn't suggest that). At that point, it will be obvious what needs to be done. It's just a shame we just don't do it now, and save not just a lot lives, but minimise the financial damage that is also happening with this slow-motion train wreck.




Spot on, I own 2 cafes 12 staff and want this approach, inc closing all schools , as we all know schools are a breeding ground for colds flues etc, however the wealth before health minded won't follow through
,to me this highlight the sad fact that we carnt afford to look after out loved ones when these problems arise, the banks really do have us by the balls, allowing this to be slowly dragged out will strangle us slowly


Considering this is going to hit you in the pocket, cauncy, I've got to say I really respect your attitude. Well done, mate!

kiterboy
1815 posts
22 Mar 2020 7:25PM
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psychojoe said..

Harrow said..

Useful when you don't have it already in your state. But each state already has it, and the government has been so busy telling people not to worry that we are so complacent we are still managing to double the number of cases faster and faster. We're screwed. Unless we close the schools and do proper lockdown at a home level, there'll be a half-million dead Australians in 3 to 4 months. Predictions are for the ICU beds to run out in the first or second week in April. Good luck to those who need care after that, let's see where the death rate ends up after that.



I can't be the only one that's ok with millions dying before tax time. If those numbers include me, so be it, I probably shouldn't have been born in the first place. I'm honest, I owe nothing other than money. I've never wasted an opportunity to go kiting. I'm at peace.


Congratulations. Your empathy knows no bounds.

You should change your username, replace the 'joe' with 'path'.

Harrow
NSW, 3423 posts
22 Mar 2020 10:45PM
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cauncy said..
Spot on, I own 2 cafes 12 staff and want this approach, inc closing all schools , as we all know schools are a breeding ground for colds flues etc, however the wealth before health minded won't follow through
,to me this highlight the sad fact that we carnt afford to look after out loved ones when these problems arise, the banks really do have us by the balls, allowing this to be slowly dragged out will strangle us slowly

So, Cauncy, what's your take on the PM message tonight? Seems to me you're going to take a hit and it will all be in vain?

My youngest daughter is off to school tomorrow with 1800 other high school children. The kids at her school come from all over the place, not just the local area, so the potential for catching and spreading covid even further is enormous. Seems to me that any useful impact of closing cafes and restaurants will be eclipsed by the petri dish of the school yard. Also, my wife is a primary school teacher and says no matter how hard you try, you simply cannot keep primary school kids away from each other, it's a pointless excercise.

By the time the NSW school holidays arrive in 3 weeks, we will have managed to replicate Italy's regretful lack of action.

AndyShwartz
WA, 81 posts
22 Mar 2020 7:58PM
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Harrow said..

cauncy said..
Spot on, I own 2 cafes 12 staff and want this approach, inc closing all schools , as we all know schools are a breeding ground for colds flues etc, however the wealth before health minded won't follow through
,to me this highlight the sad fact that we carnt afford to look after out loved ones when these problems arise, the banks really do have us by the balls, allowing this to be slowly dragged out will strangle us slowly


So, Cauncy, what's your take on the PM message tonight? Seems to me you're going to take a hit and it will all be in vain?

My youngest daughter is off to school tomorrow with 1800 other high school children. The kids at her school come from all over the place, not just the local area, so the potential for catching and spreading covid even further is enormous. Seems to me that any useful impact of closing cafes and restaurants will be eclipsed by the petri dish of the school yard. Also, my wife is a primary school teacher and says no matter how hard you try, you simply cannot keep primary school kids away from each other, it's a pointless excercise.

By the time the NSW school holidays arrive in 3 weeks, we will have managed to replicate Italy's regretful lack of action.


But we dont know if children spread the virus

But let's see what happens

FormulaNova
NSW, 11064 posts
22 Mar 2020 11:21PM
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Select to expand quote
Harrow said..

cauncy said..
Spot on, I own 2 cafes 12 staff and want this approach, inc closing all schools , as we all know schools are a breeding ground for colds flues etc, however the wealth before health minded won't follow through
,to me this highlight the sad fact that we carnt afford to look after out loved ones when these problems arise, the banks really do have us by the balls, allowing this to be slowly dragged out will strangle us slowly


So, Cauncy, what's your take on the PM message tonight? Seems to me you're going to take a hit and it will all be in vain?

My youngest daughter is off to school tomorrow with 1800 other high school children. The kids at her school come from all over the place, not just the local area, so the potential for catching and spreading covid even further is enormous. Seems to me that any useful impact of closing cafes and restaurants will be eclipsed by the petri dish of the school yard. Also, my wife is a primary school teacher and says no matter how hard you try, you simply cannot keep primary school kids away from each other, it's a pointless excercise.

By the time the NSW school holidays arrive in 3 weeks, we will have managed to replicate Italy's regretful lack of action.


Apparently you should expect some decision on Tuesday.

petermac33
WA, 6241 posts
23 Mar 2020 1:04AM
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.be



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Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...


"Corona Virus - We are all going to get it." started by Crusoe