Forums > Kitesurfing General

Forecast looked cooked.

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Created by Underoath Two weeks ago, 27 Aug 2019
Underoath
QLD, 2391 posts
27 Aug 2019 5:48PM
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Anyone know how Seabreeze forecasts wind speeds?

I think the methodology might need revising as Friday & Saturday expectations are +100% on all other online resources.

The Weather Channel
Willy Weather
BOM











Cygnify
QLD, 70 posts
29 Aug 2019 9:54AM
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Looks like seabreeze had it "right" all along. Willyweather forecast now looks like seabreeze

Underoath
QLD, 2391 posts
29 Aug 2019 8:22PM
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Select to expand quote
Cygnify said..
Looks like seabreeze had it "right" all along. Willyweather forecast now looks like seabreeze


Correct. SB keeps reducing and Willy Weather hasn't changed.

davinchi
WA, 13 posts
29 Aug 2019 8:00PM
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I'm guessing SB uses GFS (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-forcast-system-gfs) as its underlying model from the USA.

BoM used to usually use the Australian ACCESS model (www.bom.gov.au/nwp/doc/access/NWPData.shtml) in the first 24-72 hours and then ECMWF (www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts) in the longer term. However they have changed recently to use an ensemble of NWP models for the longer term forecasts. BoM also has forecaster input to manipulate areas where they know model data falls over but don't expect too much attention in the longer term.

I'm not sure about Willy Weather but from what I could see from their site they use BoM data.

windy.com will give you a choice between GFS, ECMWF and MeteoBlue (ensemble of other models) with alot of other stuff to look at as well as meteograms for well known kite/windsurf spots. ECMWF is the model of choice in my opinion for Australia but it always pays to have a look for consistency across other model data.

Whatever model you choose... its always going to be tricky with an extensive surface trough lying near the coast which is what it looks like at the Sunshine coast.





causehecan
WA, 666 posts
30 Aug 2019 3:58PM
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I use to vow by windys euro model but ive grown to really enjoy PREDICT WINDS forcasting models.

Sadly in australia gfs is often more accurate i dont understand how or why i believe its cause its more conservative and the gods hate me

Underoath
QLD, 2391 posts
30 Aug 2019 9:38PM
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I'm short, if using Seabreeze
for wind forecasting on the Sunshine Coast QLD.

Drop 5 to 7 knots off any South direction wind forecast. Add 3 to 5 for any North.

eppo
WA, 7252 posts
30 Aug 2019 8:52PM
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Sea breeze for macro view then you gotta go elsewhere for more detail then overlay local geo" knowledge relative to where they put the wind measure a thingy ma bob.

quikdrawMcgraw
1177 posts
31 Aug 2019 5:10AM
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Select to expand quote
Underoath said..
I'm short, if using Seabreeze
for wind forecasting on the Sunshine Coast QLD.

Drop 5 to 7 knots off any South direction wind forecast. Add 3 to 5 for any North.



I'd agree with that. There were a a couple of kites out yesterday I saw. The tide in the maroochy river was moving about 15 knots so that helped

Underoath
QLD, 2391 posts
7 Sep 2019 10:02PM
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Now we have new icons.





quikdrawMcgraw
1177 posts
8 Sep 2019 3:47AM
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That bacon symbol is predicted dust (in case you didn't know) and they were spot on with that yesterday. I can't ever remember seeing dust like that on the sunny coast, in WA yeah of course b3cause the whole place is a sand pit but not on the sunny coast.

quikdrawMcgraw
1177 posts
9 Sep 2019 1:05PM
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Some dude was rigging up at cotton tree today in this gusty offshore westerly didn't hang around to watch hope he knew what he was doing



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"Forecast looked cooked." started by Underoath