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Yacht price predictions due to recession

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Created by Wonderfulx A week ago, 24 Mar 2020
Wonderfulx
QLD, 23 posts
24 Mar 2020 8:50AM
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Tough times and a selfish question. I want to buy bluewater cruiser. How do you think boat prices will play out?

Not much chance of going far to look at one right now but what do you think of yacht prices with the coming virus problems? Possible 1M job losses. But I don't know how much affect this has on owners of 30 year old bluewater cruisers that I'm interested in. I had trouble finding info what happened in the GFC.

I looked a 38' Moodys. 140k here. 80k in Greece. Hard to justify buying it here with that price since I don't care to sail straight back.

nswsailor
NSW, 1293 posts
24 Mar 2020 9:57AM
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You wont be able to sail straight back as all ports are closed

drpete
53 posts
24 Mar 2020 7:50AM
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I sold my Crowther Cat during the GFC paid $139000 for it a couple of years before (which was a fair price) put it on the market and the GFC hit. Everyone who would normally be in the market for a boat was all of a sudden not buying, and everyone who owned one wanted out. It was the perfect storm of pain. I ended up selling it five years later for $70000. I still beat myself up over it, but in reality, that's how it goes sometimes.....

Wonderfulx
QLD, 23 posts
24 Mar 2020 10:06AM
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DrPete, yeah, it always sucks to be on the painful side. I had to sell a property last downturn. At the same time I was grateful someone bought it. So I'll hang on to my money for a while. Who knows what the circumstance of a boat owner is. Paying your mortgage vs keeping a boat isn't a choice.

Craig66
NSW, 1885 posts
24 Mar 2020 1:05PM
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Select to expand quote
Wonderfulx said..
Tough times and a selfish question. I want to buy bluewater cruiser. How do you think boat prices will play out?

Not much chance of going far to look at one right now but what do you think of yacht prices with the coming virus problems? Possible 1M job losses. But I don't know how much affect this has on owners of 30 year old bluewater cruisers that I'm interested in. I had trouble finding info what happened in the GFC.

I looked a 38' Moodys. 140k here. 80k in Greece. Hard to justify buying it here with that price since I don't care to sail straight back.


No not selfish, just reality.
I am still planning to buy a cat in about 12 months, currently about 300-350k range,
Plan A...To re mortgage my house and put tenants in to cover loan while sailing.
Plan B... Sell house and buy outright, stock boat with corona and vanish

Now will my place be worth less in 12 months? I think so.
Well boat prices drop, hell yes, some will need the cash.
But people with nice boats will proberly be able to afford to keep them and ride out the storm.

It will become a buyers market is my 2 cents worth

Yara
NSW, 985 posts
24 Mar 2020 1:56PM
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Select to expand quote
Craig66 said..

Wonderfulx said..
Tough times and a selfish question. I want to buy bluewater cruiser. How do you think boat prices will play out?

Not much chance of going far to look at one right now but what do you think of yacht prices with the coming virus problems? Possible 1M job losses. But I don't know how much affect this has on owners of 30 year old bluewater cruisers that I'm interested in. I had trouble finding info what happened in the GFC.

I looked a 38' Moodys. 140k here. 80k in Greece. Hard to justify buying it here with that price since I don't care to sail straight back.



No not selfish, just reality.
I am still planning to buy a cat in about 12 months, currently about 300-350k range,
Plan A...To re mortgage my house and put tenants in to cover loan while sailing.
Plan B... Sell house and buy outright, stock boat with corona and vanish

Now will my place be worth less in 12 months? I think so.
Well boat prices drop, hell yes, some will need the cash.
But people with nice boats will proberly be able to afford to keep them and ride out the storm.

It will become a buyers market is my 2 cents worth



Plan A is the most sensible. House prices will always recover. It is just the time scale that is the problem.

Not so sure about boats. So hang in there and buy in about 4 months when there is sure to be some great bargains around. Sadly I can imagine many of the spouses soon will be saying- "Get rid of your toy- now is not the time to be...."

garymalmgren
399 posts
24 Mar 2020 12:10PM
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I want to buy bluewater cruiser.

30 year old bluewater cruisers that I'm interested in.

I looked a 38' Moodys. 140k here. 80k in Greece.

You looked at 30 year old 38 foot Moody for $140,000?
Didn't you feel it was just a little overpriced?

gary

Wonderfulx
QLD, 23 posts
24 Mar 2020 3:59PM
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garymalmgren said..
I want to buy bluewater cruiser.

30 year old bluewater cruisers that I'm interested in.

I looked a 38' Moodys. 140k here. 80k in Greece.

You looked at 30 year old 38 foot Moody for $140,000?
Didn't you feel it was just a little overpriced?

gary


Of course. I was totally prepared to go to Greece but last week was a different situation. I can't justify $60k difference minus about 15% import costs. I mean I could get a new engine, rigging, electronics, etc for the price difference.

Ramona
NSW, 5516 posts
24 Mar 2020 6:21PM
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Wonderfulx said..
Tough times and a selfish question. I want to buy bluewater cruiser. How do you think boat prices will play out?

Not much chance of going far to look at one right now but what do you think of yacht prices with the coming virus problems? Possible 1M job losses. But I don't know how much affect this has on owners of 30 year old bluewater cruisers that I'm interested in. I had trouble finding info what happened in the GFC.

I looked a 38' Moodys. 140k here. 80k in Greece. Hard to justify buying it here with that price since I don't care to sail straight back.


I think a Moody 38 is a high-end yacht and that is not going to vary much. People who own these don't feel anything when there is an economic downturn. Probably anything over a hundred grand will just wait it out. Older boats that the bank will not loan money on are the ones that will become good buys for those people paying cash. It's the same old story, sit around with a pocket full of cash and wait.
The 20 grand boats today will be still 20 grand in six months time.

Zzzzzz
327 posts
24 Mar 2020 3:49PM
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Select to expand quote
Ramona said..

Wonderfulx said..
Tough times and a selfish question. I want to buy bluewater cruiser. How do you think boat prices will play out?

Not much chance of going far to look at one right now but what do you think of yacht prices with the coming virus problems? Possible 1M job losses. But I don't know how much affect this has on owners of 30 year old bluewater cruisers that I'm interested in. I had trouble finding info what happened in the GFC.

I looked a 38' Moodys. 140k here. 80k in Greece. Hard to justify buying it here with that price since I don't care to sail straight back.



I think a Moody 38 is a high-end yacht and that is not going to vary much. People who own these don't feel anything when there is an economic downturn. Probably anything over a hundred grand will just wait it out. Older boats that the bank will not loan money on are the ones that will become good buys for those people paying cash. It's the same old story, sit around with a pocket full of cash and wait.
The 20 grand boats today will be still 20 grand in six months time.


I think $20 grand is survivable to lose so some will except large loss of that to get some cash in hand , any bigger and less movement.

Yara
NSW, 985 posts
24 Mar 2020 8:00PM
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Select to expand quote
Ramona said..


Wonderfulx said..
Tough times and a selfish question. I want to buy bluewater cruiser. How do you think boat prices will play out?

Not much chance of going far to look at one right now but what do you think of yacht prices with the coming virus problems? Possible 1M job losses. But I don't know how much affect this has on owners of 30 year old bluewater cruisers that I'm interested in. I had trouble finding info what happened in the GFC.

I looked a 38' Moodys. 140k here. 80k in Greece. Hard to justify buying it here with that price since I don't care to sail straight back.




I think a Moody 38 is a high-end yacht and that is not going to vary much. People who own these don't feel anything when there is an economic downturn. Probably anything over a hundred grand will just wait it out. Older boats that the bank will not loan money on are the ones that will become good buys for those people paying cash. It's the same old story, sit around with a pocket full of cash and wait.
The 20 grand boats today will be still 20 grand in six months time.



It is not often that I disagree with Ramona, but I think $20k boats today will be $10k boats in a few months time. Even before our looming recession the $25k boats of 2 or 3 years ago are now going for $10k to savvy buyers. Suckers will be harder to find in a recession.

Wonderfulx
QLD, 23 posts
24 Mar 2020 9:57PM
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Who knows the situation of the owner of a higher end yacht like a Moody. People overextend all the time. As I said if you lose your job, shares are down and you have a mortgage to pay then the boat has to go.

Someone with a $20k yacht is going to take $10k if defaulting on mortgage is the other option.

Craig66
NSW, 1885 posts
25 Mar 2020 6:10AM
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And then there are plenty of adds like this one I have been watching for a while with a price tag of 339k

"She is currently in charter in Airlie Beach and is in 4C Survey for a maximum of 6 people. The boat is professionally maintained with regular services on all equipment, with a valuation last year by an independent surveyor resulting in a rating of 'very good condition' overall. You can keep in charter and continue to benefit from forward bookings with the charter companies, or sail on her privately wherever you desire."

I guess most of the "forward bookings" will be cancelled for a while for many of charter fleets putting pressure on owners relying on the income to cover cost.

Yara
NSW, 985 posts
25 Mar 2020 9:34AM
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Never mind the recession-think lock down. My wife is adamant that I should not even go and look at a new boat. House sales open house banned, more restrictions probably coming. Going to be hard for buyers as well as sellers.

sirgallivant
NSW, 1467 posts
25 Mar 2020 7:25PM
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In what world are you gents living or planning to live in six months or a year time?
If you are thinking about planet Earth as we know it, l have to warn you to put on your thinking caps!

We are going to be lucky in a few weeks time if we are going to be allowed on the street to get to our boats.
We are going to be lucky in a year time or before, if we are not going to be under martial law.
Even if one finds immediate cure for the corona virus, miraculously, the recovery from the damage is going to take years.

Besides, in the meantime the real leaders of the world are working on a "clean slate" solution to start a new economic age with new rules and laws as they are seeking it ever since 2008 just how could they do it.
This upheaval of late gave them a perfect opportunity to do what they want and they are going to do it no matter what.
No matter what you do, all of us are going to be ruined from the upper middle class down, and after the reorganisation (redistribution of wealth) everyone is going to be worse off but the super rich.

God give me the mercy to be mistaken and RIP those who fall victim to the disease and its aftermath.


Wonderfulx
QLD, 23 posts
26 Mar 2020 7:33AM
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sirgallivant said..
In what world are you gents living or planning to live in six months or a year time?
If you are thinking about planet Earth as we know it, l have to warn you to put on your thinking caps!

We are going to be lucky in a few weeks time if we are going to be allowed on the street to get to our boats.
We are going to be lucky in a year time or before, if we are not going to be under martial law.
Even if one finds immediate cure for the corona virus, miraculously, the recovery from the damage is going to take years.

Besides, in the meantime the real leaders of the world are working on a "clean slate" solution to start a new economic age with new rules and laws as they are seeking it ever since 2008 just how could they do it.
This upheaval of late gave them a perfect opportunity to do what they want and they are going to do it no matter what.
No matter what you do, all of us are going to be ruined from the upper middle class down, and after the reorganisation (redistribution of wealth) everyone is going to be worse off but the super rich.

God give me the mercy to be mistaken and RIP those who fall victim to the disease and its aftermath.




I can't argue with you. It's insane how they are throwing money around like it's theirs. I can go off in conspiracies and hate how the system works but I came to the conclusion long ago that there's no pointing hating it and so I just play the game as best I can.

I'll keep looking for a boat I like and unfortunately get a bargain from someone's misery or hopefully they be happy to just out.

nswsailor
NSW, 1293 posts
26 Mar 2020 10:07AM
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Craig66 said..

Wonderfulx said..
Tough times and a selfish question. I want to buy bluewater cruiser. How do you think boat prices will play out?

Not much chance of going far to look at one right now but what do you think of yacht prices with the coming virus problems? Possible 1M job losses. But I don't know how much affect this has on owners of 30 year old bluewater cruisers that I'm interested in. I had trouble finding info what happened in the GFC.

I looked a 38' Moodys. 140k here. 80k in Greece. Hard to justify buying it here with that price since I don't care to sail straight back.



No not selfish, just reality.
I am still planning to buy a cat in about 12 months, currently about 300-350k range,
Plan A...To re mortgage my house and put tenants in to cover loan while sailing.
Plan B... Sell house and buy outright, stock boat with corona and vanish

Now will my place be worth less in 12 months? I think so.
Well boat prices drop, hell yes, some will need the cash.
But people with nice boats will proberly be able to afford to keep them and ride out the storm.

It will become a buyers market is my 2 cents worth



Plan B is a road to poverty, seen a few who have done that and found they couldn't get back into the house market, not because of the yacht resale value but because housing prices tend to rise over time.

And just a point on the bottom end of the market [10k-20k] prices at that end of the market bottomed out a while ago and are now starting to rise, but slowly, again.

Yara
NSW, 985 posts
26 Mar 2020 3:27PM
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I just bought a 24 ft boat for half the advertised price, which was already down to 60% of broker prices. Owner leaving the country before all doors shut.

Magpieuser
QLD, 7 posts
28 Mar 2020 5:54PM
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I'm guessing there might be a few cheap large power boats around. My thought based on the kind of over leveraged folk who I guess tend to buy them. Oh and probably a shed load of jetskis.

Nice big newish monohulls maybe but less likely I reckon based on the kind of well funded folk who buy them. I maybe completely wrong. Older monos bought by people with cash who live simple lives will surely be unaffected.

Sir Gallivant I think you will be disappointed to find things will be ' business as usual' sooner than you would like.

Closing coffee shops and restuarants etc is not the end of the world except for the folk involved.

Mining, construction, banks etc largely business as usual.

SandS
VIC, 5844 posts
28 Mar 2020 7:21PM
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yes i recon your right , if you are in the market for a big stink boat could be your lucky year !

Bundeenabuoy
NSW, 806 posts
28 Mar 2020 7:48PM
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I think Sirgalivant is far too optimistic, (Hi John.)
If this isn't fixed in two months only essential services will have a job.
I am guessing thats about twenty percent of the population.
Eighty percent will not have a job.
There will only be market for food and medicines.

Today the US virus cases hit 100,000, and this figure is doubling every three days.
Thats 3.2 million cases in a fortnight and 13 million cases in three weeks.

Unfortunately the world is broken but we had it so good for so long.

Please show me where I am wrong?

Chris 249
NSW, 2451 posts
28 Mar 2020 8:56PM
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You're only complaining because all yachties are rich, stuck-up snobs.

Well, there's as more actual evidence for that statement as there is for any doom and gloom and stuff about how the world is run by the Illuminaatii, or the alien lizard people or whatever. :-)

Apart from anything else, anyone who has sailed big racing yachts will see that the big end of town can't cooperate for five minutes, and that they struggle to organise themselves in any way. Look at the way maxi yacht classes have come and gone because the billionaires cannot agree on a set of rules to play together under.

If, on the other hand, they somehow have managed to create a giant conspiracy without leaving a single real trace, then they must be the most organised bunch in the history of the universe and in that case we can't beat them anyway. But at a time when the presidents of the USA cannot keep their sex lives secret, the idea that guys who compete with each other can keep the world's biggest secret just seems ludicrous. But what would I know, I just spent a career doing things like investigating major companies and powerful people......

madmission
VIC, 217 posts
28 Mar 2020 10:44PM
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Chris 249 said..

If, on the other hand, they somehow have managed to create a giant conspiracy without leaving a single real trace, then they must be the most organised bunch in the history of the universe and in that case we can't beat them anyway. But at a time when the presidents of the USA cannot keep their sex lives secret, the idea that guys who compete with each other can keep the world's biggest secret just seems ludicrous.



+1 just a human **** show

Zzzzzz
327 posts
29 Mar 2020 7:12AM
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sirgallivant said..
In what world are you gents living or planning to live in six months or a year time?
If you are thinking about planet Earth as we know it, l have to warn you to put on your thinking caps!

We are going to be lucky in a few weeks time if we are going to be allowed on the street to get to our boats.
We are going to be lucky in a year time or before, if we are not going to be under martial law.
Even if one finds immediate cure for the corona virus, miraculously, the recovery from the damage is going to take years.

Besides, in the meantime the real leaders of the world are working on a "clean slate" solution to start a new economic age with new rules and laws as they are seeking it ever since 2008 just how could they do it.
This upheaval of late gave them a perfect opportunity to do what they want and they are going to do it no matter what.
No matter what you do, all of us are going to be ruined from the upper middle class down, and after the reorganisation (redistribution of wealth) everyone is going to be worse off but the super rich.

God give me the mercy to be mistaken and RIP those who fall victim to the disease and its aftermath.



Finally someone has their eyes open well said

sirgallivant
NSW, 1467 posts
Friday , 3 Apr 2020 9:54PM
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'The west is doomed, because they are willing to sell us the rope for profit which rope we are going to use to hang them.'

This above paraphrased sentence is from a Lenin's speech.

The old bastard might be dead but his followers are hell bent to use the same rope to choke the capitalist system, as we know it, to death under the 'Chineese unbrella' which might open soon.

Just give a few more months or a year and we all might see what's coming.
All this, while our 'elected leaders', whoever THEY are scrambling to rescue their corrupt system which they supported for a century and trying to hold back the tide.

Unfortunately!

It is as clear as clear can be to people who can 'read between the lines'.



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"Yacht price predictions due to recession" started by Wonderfulx