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SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS Analysis

Issued at 4:00pm WST on Thursday the 2nd of September 2010 RECENT EVENTS: NORTHERN HALF: Isolated showers in the southeast Gascoyne and northeast Kimberley. Thunderstorms and areas of rain in the Interior. SOUTHERN HALF: Cold with areas of rain and drizzle over the Goldfields and Eucla. Isolated showers over most of the SW Land Division in a cool southeasterly airstream.
SYNOPTIC SITUATION AND FORECAST EXPLANATION:
A middle level trough is producing areas of rain and drizzle over the Goldfields, Eucla and Interior with thunderstorms in the central Interior. This will contract east overnight and ease to isolated showers during Friday morning before clearing Friday evening. Another cold day for these areas. A ridge of high pressure is developing over the south of the state and will dominate the weather for a few days. On Friday isolated showers will continue over the southern half of the SW Land Division as the unstable and cool SE'ly flow persists. Showers should become confined to the south and southwest coasts by the evening. A cold morning through most parts of the SW Land Division with isolated areas of early frost. The Kimberley will become more unstable on Friday with isolated showers and thunderstorms expected across the northeastern half.
PROGNOSIS
Prognosis
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS:
On Saturday a weak cold front will move along the south coast. Isolated showers
are expected southwest of a line Mandurah to Gnowangerup and along the eastern
south coast in the morning, reaching remaining parts of the southern half of the
SW Land Division as well as the southern Goldfields and southern Eucla during
the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in the northeast
Kimberley.
Isolated showers will contract to the South and Southeast Coastal districts, the
far southern Goldfields and Eucla on Sunday as a high pressure ridge develops
over the south of the state. Isolated showers and thunderstorms again in the
northeast Kimberley.
On Monday, isolated afternoon showers are forecast for the southern Lower West,
Southwest and far western parts of the Great Southern and South Coastal
districts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Kimberley will extend into
the northern Interior during the evening. 
        
Local Waters Forecast
Yanchep to Mandurah and Offshore to Rottnest Island
Issued at 11:30 pm WST on Thursday 2 September 2010
Valid until midnight Sunday

Warnings
Nil.

Synoptic Situation
A ridge of high pressure developing south of the state.

Forecasts:
Friday: E'ly winds 8/13 knots tending SE/SW 8/13 knots for a period in the
afternoon. Seas to 0.5m. Swell to 1.5m.
Swell at Cottesloe: to 0.5m.
Winds on Melville Water: Generally 3/5 knots lighter.

Saturday: Variable winds 5/10 knots tending W/SW during the morning and S/SE
10/15 knots towards evening. Seas to 1.0m. Swell to 1.5m.
Sunday: E/SE winds 10/15 knots tending SE/SW 10/15 knots for a period in the
afternoon.

Current Swell Observations:
Rottnest Waverider Buoy: 0.9m.
Cottesloe Waverider Buoy: 0.4m.

Current swell height information is supplied by the Department of Transport and
is current only at the time of issue of this forecast

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 am WST Friday.

Kalbarri to Jurien Bay: (Including GERALDTON)
Thursday until midnight: S/SE winds 15/20 knots. Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell to
1.5m.
Friday: E/SE winds 13/18 knots tending S'ly 10/15 knots in the afternoon. Seas
to 1.0m. Swell to 1.5m.
Saturday: E/SE winds 10/15 knots tending S/SE 13/18 knots in the afternoon. Seas
to 1.0m. Swell to 1.5m.
Sunday: E/SE winds 10/15 knots.

Jurien Bay to Mandurah: (Including LANCELIN & CERVANTES)
Thursday until midnight: S/SE winds 10/15 knots. Seas to 1.0m. Swell to 1.5m.
Friday: E'ly winds 8/13 knots tending SE/SW for a period in the afternoon. Seas
to 0.5m. Swell to 1.5m.
Saturday: Variable winds 5/10 knots tending W/SW during the morning and S/SE
10/15 knots towards evening. Seas to 1.0m. Swell to 1.5m.
Sunday: E/SE winds 10/15 knots tending SE/SW 10/15 knots for a period in the
afternoon.

Mandurah to Cape Leeuwin: (Including MARGARET RIVER)
Thursday until midnight: SE winds 10/15 knots. Seas to 1.0m. Swell to 2.0m.
Friday: E/NE winds 5/10 knots tending W/NW'ly in the morning and then W/SW 8/13
knots during the afternoon. Seas to 0.5m. Swell to 1.5m.
Saturday: S/SW winds 10/15 knots. Seas to 1.0m. Swell to 2.0m.
Sunday: SE winds 10/15 knots tending SE/SW 8/13 knots for a period in the
afternoon.

Cape Leeuwin to Bremer Bay: (Including ALBANY)
Thursday until midnight: SE winds 10/15 knots. Seas to 1.0m. Swell to 2.5m.
Friday: Variable winds 5/10 knots tending W/SW 10/15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas to 1.0m. Swell to 2.0m.
Saturday: SW winds 13/18 knots. Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell to 2.5m.
Sunday: SE/SW winds 10/15 knots.

Bremer Bay to Israelite Bay: (Including ESPERANCE)
Thursday until midnight: E/SE winds 15/20 knots easing to 10/15 knots in the
evening. Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell to 2.0m.
Friday: S/SE winds 8/13 knots tending S/SW 10/15 knots during the afternoon and
increasing to 13/18 knots in the evening. Seas to 1.5m. Swell to 2.0m.
Saturday: W/SW winds 15/20 knots easing to S/SW 10/15 knots from the west late
the afternoon. Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell to 2.0m.
Sunday: S/SW winds 10/15 knots.

Israelite Bay to SA Border:
Thursday until midnight: SE winds 20/25 knots. Seas to 2.0m. Swell to 2.0m.
Friday: S/SE winds 20/25 knots easing S/SW 15/20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas 1.5m to 2.0m. Swell to 2.0m.
Saturday: W/SW winds 15/20 knots. Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell to 2.0m.
Sunday: W/SW winds 13/18 knots easing to SW 10/15 knots during the afternoon.



Forecast for the Perth Metro Area
Issued at 4:30 pm WST on Thursday 2 September 2010

Warning summary
Nil.

Forecast for Thursday  evening
Partly cloudy with light to moderate SE winds.

Precis:      Partly cloudy.                     

Forecast for Friday   
A mostly sunny day after a cold morning.  Light E/NE winds becoming SW'ly in the
afternoon.

Precis:      Mostly sunny.                      
City:        Min 3      Max 18 
Mandurah:    Min 8      Max 18 

UV Alert:    9:40 am to 2:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]  
Fire Danger: Coastal Plain: NOT RATED
             Hills:         NOT RATED

Saturday     Chance of a shower.                    Min 6      Max 19
Sunday       Mostly sunny.                          Min 5      Max 20
Monday       Partly cloudy.                         Min 4      Max 20
Tuesday      Chance of a shower.                    Min 6      Max 20
Wednesday    Few showers.                           Min 8      Max 18
Thursday     Partly cloudy.                         Min 4      Max 17

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:50 am WST Friday.
        

Forecasts provided by the BoM and are (C) Copyright Commonwealth of Australia, Bureau of Meteorology





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