A quick lesson in spotting pseudo-science

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rohjar
rohjar
WA
142 posts
WA, 142 posts
2 Dec 2007 4:55pm
There have been a few posts on seabreeze promoting claims that global warming is a hoax. Some posts doubt the warming, some doubt humans have influenced any warming that does exist. In any case, there is an easy way for your average punter who isn't an expert on the relevant science to figure out if valid claims are being made...

LOOK FOR PEER REVIEWED REFERENCES!

As "An Inconvenient Truth" mentioned, a shedload of scientific, peer-reviewed academic papers have been published documenting the phenomenon of human industry having a side effect of increasing CO2, which increases temperatures.

The way science works is that doubters who think they have valid counter-claims (a fancy way of saying "I reckon you is full of bull**"), submit their claims and evidence to peer reviewed journals like SCIENCE, NATURE, and less-famous specialist journals.

So, have many "global-warming-is-BS" articles been published in peer-reviewed journal? No. Instead they are fluff pieces that might be fun to read, but are as scientifically valid as astrology, ESP, miracle cancer cures and colonic irrigation.

So next time you see a claim that makes you think "Gee, that's interesting, I wonder if it's true?". There is an easy test. Scroll to the end of the article and look at the references. If they don't cite peer-reviewed journal articles then you can relax and say "Ah, it's a delicious thought, but just speculation".

If you've read this far, and wonder where this rant came from, then google "philosophy of science".
decrepit
decrepit
WA
12885 posts
WA, 12885 posts
2 Dec 2007 8:26pm
But then how do you counter the claims made on behalf of said pseudo-science, "that the scientific community is in a giant conspiracy, for /economic/ego/(insert your own silly reason)". withn apparent evidence to back the claim.
In other words some people tend to believe what they want to believe, especially if it's convenient for them.
mytchook
mytchook
QLD
561 posts
QLD, 561 posts
2 Dec 2007 10:34pm
decrepit said...

But then how do you counter the claims made on behalf of said pseudo-science, "that the scientific community is in a giant conspiracy, for /economic/ego/(insert your own silly reason)". withn apparent evidence to back the claim.
In other words some people tend to believe what they want to believe, especially if it's convenient for them.



You could say the exact same for the whole millenium bug hysteria too.
rohjar
rohjar
WA
142 posts
WA, 142 posts
3 Dec 2007 4:24pm
A giant (and therefore vague) conspiracy can't be disproved. There's a nice wikipedia entry under "conspiracy theory" about this. For a conspiracy theory to be credible, it needs to be specific enough that it COULD be proved right or wrong.

So saying that scientists are in a huge conspiracy to promote global warming is too vague, but saying (for example) that the editors of NATURE journal have refused to publish good research against global warming would be a more credible, specific conspiracy theory. Proving the more specific conspiracy would only only take a few researchers with good publication records saying "Hey, they published my studies that were pro-warming, but not my studies that were anti-warming".

Having a few people with paranoid schizophrenia saying "they refuse to publish my work!" would not be credible however.

Personally I prefer the conspiracy that the wind gods around the world have conspired to only blow in places that I'm not. It's MY theory, and I want some sympathy, not reasoned evidence dammit!

EDIT: The arrows just turned green- Freo doctor is in. I guess the winds gods temporarily forgot their conspiracy against me
biggrin
biggrin
WA
107 posts
WA, 107 posts
6 Dec 2007 12:18am
So, have many "global-warming-is-BS" articles been published in peer-reviewed journal? No. Instead they are fluff pieces that might be fun to read, but are as scientifically valid as astrology, ESP, miracle cancer cures and colonic irrigation.

Um, well, I'm the first to admit I really know FA about atmospherics, probably even spelt it wrong! As far as peer reviews go, I've read a bit, but probably missed the point regarding most of the stuff I looked at. However one thing I did notice at a web site called http://www.greatglobalwarmingswindle.com/index.html was quite a few reference materials from peer review journals such as Nature, Science etc. To be honest, I really don't know what that means either.

What I do know is that Al Gore is a Politian and he won the Nobel peace prize nominated by his peers. What does that mean?

I wonder if the originators of the Nobel award are rolling in their graves
elizabethb
elizabethb
QLD
2081 posts
QLD, 2081 posts
6 Dec 2007 1:42am
rohjar said...

Scroll to the end of the article and look at the references. If they don't cite peer-reviewed journal articles then you can relax and say "Ah, it's a delicious thought, but just speculation".


Too true. However, the fact of the matter if all students in Primary School don't know this ALREADY before they enter into High School, their teachers are failing to do their jobs. To be exact, by level 6 (year 10) in the English Syllabus (QSA, 2007) students need to understand "the use of conventional spelling and punctuation (including conventions of quoting and referencing) adds to the status of published texts, but that unconventional uses can be appropriate in particular text types".

Referencing or citing gives a clear link 'between your ideas and the ideas of the author' (SFSU, 2007) through adding meaning, purpose and justification.

If its not cited, quoted or referenced it is a mere opinion, however; as this is a kiting-windsurfing forum, I doubt many are going to bother; as you wouldn't really unless you had to.




SFSU (2007). Academic Affairs: Student learning support. San Francisco. http://academic.sfsu.edu/facaffairs/ctfd/stud_resources/referencing.php Accessed 5th December 2007.

QSA. (2007).Years 1-10 English Syllabus. Queensland: The State of Queensland. www.qsa.qld.edu.au/yrs1to10/kla/english/docs/syllabus/syllabus_trial.doc Also available and accessed 5th December 2007
Rex
Rex
WA
949 posts
Rex Rex
WA, 949 posts
6 Dec 2007 12:17pm
I wonder how deep peer reviewing goes and how reliable it really is?
rohjar
rohjar
WA
142 posts
WA, 142 posts
8 Dec 2007 9:39pm
Hmm, 2 interesting points by biggrin & Rex:
1. www.greatglobalwarmingconspiracy.com seems to have academic references
2. isn't peer review sometimes dodgy?

1. The greatglobalwarmingconspiracy.com website has a lot of links, some of which have peer-reviewed, credible references. The most interesting links ended up taking me to www.climateaudit.org which is a blog by a Canadian economics professor who knows his econometrics (a fancy word for statistics). Anyway, it turns out that the peer-reviewed publications aren't disproving global warming, but instead are doing something more specific: pointing out statistical flaws in some specific articles. So the credible publications don't say global warming is bull**, but do say (for example) Mann, Bradley & Hughes (1998) is bull** for hiding that 800 years ago in Colorado mountain forests it was probably pretty warm.


2. Peer review definitely can be dodgy. Just 'cos Pommie doctors 300 years ago all agreed that most illnesses could be cured with leaches, didn't make 'em right. In fact both my mates on the beach today agreed that my rooster tail was 50 feet long and that I was hitting 47 knots even with my speedos on the outside of the wettie.

A slightly more serious answer is that peer review is generally more rigorous (less likely to publish dodgy research) the more prestigious the academic journal. Mistakes still do happen on occasion, and there's some talk about it at climateaudit.org. The way science progresses is usually that each new study refines and corrects the problems of earlier studies. When this progression happens it's called a "stream of research" in a well-developed or strong "paradigm". So to get back to windsports, are hybrid kites really a new paradigm, or just a refinement of mylar sails from the 1980s?




big gill
big gill
WA
649 posts
WA, 649 posts
10 Dec 2007 11:28pm
you guys have too much time on your hands
a bit of a yawn
decrepit
decrepit
WA
12885 posts
WA, 12885 posts
10 Dec 2007 11:31pm
The wise words of another blind wanderer through life.
The Grinch
The Grinch
WA
733 posts
WA, 733 posts
10 Dec 2007 11:42pm

Its not going to make you sail any faster decrepit.

try taking your gps off to save weight...
decrepit
decrepit
WA
12885 posts
WA, 12885 posts
11 Dec 2007 12:06am
The Grinch said...


Its not going to make you sail any faster decrepit.

try taking your gps off to save weight...


NO NO, you don't understand speed sailing, you have to add weight to go faster.

There's a good example of the advantage of knowing what's really going on around you.
rohjar
rohjar
WA
142 posts
WA, 142 posts
22 Dec 2007 10:54pm
I'm bumping this thread because another greenies-are-conspirators thread came up.

Yes, it is a bit of a yawn for people with short attention spans, but might I politely suggest that the advice to HTFU could apply to hard thoughts as well as to hard bumps.

EDIT: Sorry if I offended anyone by describing this argument as a greenies-are-goodies vs. greenies-are-conspirators thang. I realise it's more complex and nuanced than that. I was just making up a pithy label that wasn't soooo long that it would look boring. What would be a better label? green vs. non-green is simple; economic-booms-and-fast-growth-are-all-good vs. economic-growth-can-hurt is mouthful; scientific-method-is-good vs. scientific-method-of-peer-review-is-a-process-to-slag-off-at is a pretty complicated label. I don't feel like joining in with Ad hominem attacks and straw man arguments right now. I'm waiting for the arrows to go green...
TonyC
TonyC
WA
410 posts
WA, 410 posts
23 Dec 2007 1:48pm
Firstly Rohjar, I don’t believe Greenies are conspirators – that is a very one-sided statement and shows your view on anything you don’t agree with. To label an opposing argument as "conspiracy theory" is totally non-scientific in it own right and shows the mentality. I like to look at the arguments and weigh things up for myself.

So is science the process of peer review or is science the actual proven fact (wow if you are a representation of the scientific community then the scientific community seems to be copying religion in this sense and I always believed the two were mutually exclusive). Seems too many get caught up in the peer agreement, must conform, subconcious mentality. Perhaps this provides one explanation for why, outside of medical research, there has not been any significant scientific discoveries in the last 40 years. In the past there were many advancements but the scientific community was functioning in many different separate environments, and certain groups were not constrained by the thinking of others - one potential downside to the information/globalisation age.

I have always believed a theory is only a theory and doesn’t become fact until proven, and maybe also subsequently disproven upon further scientific advancement, which has occurred countless times. History has shown in almost every area of scientific research that drawing a long bow on the initial finding has been false. I can provide a strict argument that 1+1=3 and have it peer reviewed in accordance with the terms of reference of the argument. To then draw the bow that in things outside the strict argument that 1+1=3 is totally wrong, actually fraudulent to present it as fact. This is what I believe is happening with the CO2 is causing global warming debate. Science is political, think about it.

Peer review, depends totally on the terms of reference. Yes it has been proven that CO2 increases temperatures and that humans are putting out more CO2 than ever. That is fact – however it is non scientific to draw the bow that must therefore be the reason for global warming. Come on – use your brain. I don’t dispute the fact that there is global warming with much more to come but isn’t it possible there are other causes, after all the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere has been proven to occur on a lagging basis after global warming has commenced in all the ice records. To take just one line of view is potentially ignoring what may be a totally different and non-correctable cause – possibly to the major detriment of human populations, and no this has never happened before has it (lol).

This is starting to become fun, though probably not correct to have in a windsurfing forum. Come on, tear me to shreds without showing a bias - that would be the scientific way. Oh and can you do it without the hiding behind the "peer review is the holy grail and can never be disputed" stance.
nebbian
nebbian
WA
6277 posts
WA, 6277 posts
23 Dec 2007 2:43pm
TonyC said...

there has not been any significant scientific discoveries in the last 40 years.


Sorry mate I've got to pull you up on this one.

Astronomy: Many new planets discovered around other stars, the cosmic background radiation has been discovered and mapped, quantum physics has made huge advances, and let's not forget that with all the new bodies we've discovered in the solar system we've had to demote Pluto to non-planet status.

Weather: You just have to watch the graphs on seabreeze to realise that weather forecasting has come forward in leaps and bounds since 40 years ago.

Atomic physics: With the advent of massive supercolliders we have discovered many new particles that previously were unknown to science.

These are just the tip of the iceberg, science has never been going along at such a fantastic clip as now. And this is mainly to do with the incredible computing power that we now take for granted, anyone can now perform calculations today in one second, that 40 years ago would have taken over 3 years.


Granted, global warming has become a political football, and people are rushing to jump on the bandwagon. Let's not forget that 30 years ago the world was just as concerned about the next ice age, possibly triggered by a nuclear winter.
As others have said, the climate on earth has been changing for 4.3 billion years, and humans have only had a significant effect for the last couple of hundred. Still, figuring out what to do when the oil runs out can only be a good thing
TonyC
TonyC
WA
410 posts
WA, 410 posts
23 Dec 2007 3:02pm
Hi Neb's,

Totally agree that we need to find long term energy solutions that are environment friendly. Gee we still use internal combustion fossil fueled engines to drive 99% of the world's energy needs. Doesn't mean all the excuses used for seeking solutions are correct though. Peak oil is coming and I agree the environment is getting majorly polluted from the industrialised age - I am only disputing one aspect. Too many people like to see people either one side or the other of the fence - so if I dispute something about environmental claims they obviously take it I am an environmental terrorist, hmmmm, interesting mentality.

And yes, the computing age has significantly allowed humanity to expand on scientific areas, but still dispute there has been any significant discoveries in the last 40 years that have altered the way the world is viewed and where the world is heading, for all the technological tools we have expanded on - there has just been an expansion on what was already discovered.
brady
brady
TAS
454 posts
TAS, 454 posts
23 Dec 2007 7:02pm
No discoveries in the past forty years which changed the way we viewed the world? Maybe that's why little Johnnie was such a good PM. He was in his era! Maybe some changes will creep into society now.

There have been massive, consciousness-expanding changes in the past 40 years

DNA technology. Not a medical advance - in fact the number of changes in medicine as a consequence of DNA technology are bugger all, and the ones that exist are majorly hyped. But this has fundamentally changed our understanding of evolutions, species definitions, and human history, as well as our understanding of diseases and inheritance.

The microchip. Look back at the electrical devices of 40 years ago and compare them to today. Not even close.

GPS naviation. Not only used for speed runs and proving how good you are, it does a lot more than that

Communications, fibre-optics, data compression



But that is all beside the point for this argument.

Peer reviewed science is not without its limitations, but at the moment it's the best we've got. Much better than the alternative. But it does pay to keep its limitations in mind - namely
1. group think
2. publication bias. Positive studies are more likely to get published. This influences the opinions of reviewers (and researchers), who then use this to base their subsequent studies on. (This is actually really scary. Do NOT have a stroke in the USA. You will be on the receiving end of some really dangerous treatment).
3. plenty of others, but can't be bothered thinking about them at the moment



However, most of the "debate" about global warming is definitely driven (and funded) by big business. The fact that their arguments get quoted in forums like this shows just how persuasive their marketing is. For anyone who wants a really scary read about this, read
"Toxic Sludge is Good for You". by two authors fromt he USA. They look at the PR industry, and how they go about manipulating public opnion. VERY SCARY. In fact the global warming bit is in one of their subsequent books, but I can't remember the title of that one.
This book should be compulsory readign for anyone who watches TV news ot documentaries, or reads a news paper, or inf act does anything other than live in a cave, and occasionally come outside for a kitesurf.

Of course, is the global warming by manmade CO2 proven? Of course not. Nothing can ever be proven beyond doubt. This fact is exploited by the well-paid sceptics, who prey on the fact most members of the publilc have no understandign of how science works, or indeed how scientists think.

Similar arguments are made about "does violence on TV cause violent behaviour?" Virtually impossible to prove. No-one doubts it desensitises people to violence. That it normalises violence in people's experience. Even that people who are exposed to violence on TV subsequently act more aggressively in computer games. But does it cause violence? Impossible to prove. But the final proof of that concept should go to the advertising industry, who spend BILLIONS based on the assumption that what people see will change their behaviour.

Look where the money is being spent, and you often have a good idea of what is going on.

And how much money has been spent by big-oil to hush-hush the green debate?

Strewth, I've come over all political.

You can tell I'm stuck at work on a Sunday, with nothing to do
Susie
Susie
SA
837 posts
SA, 837 posts
23 Dec 2007 6:34pm
try being stuck in a cellar door. no customers. lots of red wine
Wineman
Wineman
NSW
1412 posts
NSW, 1412 posts
23 Dec 2007 7:19pm
Susie said...

Sob.....I've got a short attention span....

but.....why did the walrus......cross the road.......no no I didn't mean to say that.....why did the walrusesss. what is a multiple walrus???? walrus' well thousands of the critters jump off cos there was no snow/ice to sit on??????

That's what I want to know. Cos ...Cos...it said so in the PAPER.


That that's what they did. if you know what I mean.



I thought you were talking short-hand

RU sure it was only a coupla reds
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