Feedback and reality check Swell direction

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> 10 years ago

Shooting the breeze.

makesurf

NSW

248 posts

makesurf

NSW, 248 posts

1 Dec 2015 11:39am

A number of times the Sydney swell direction has been wrong and off to the east (or even north).

Take at the moment (11am Tuesday 1 Dec)
Seabreeze Forecast = 10s from the east 0.8m

MHL waverider buoy
new.mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/realtime/wave/Buoy-syddow
shows:
9s from 153 degrees 1.0m

That direction is 45 degrees out (again)

It happens a lot..

Carantoc

7292 posts

Carantoc

WA, 7292 posts

1 Dec 2015 1:12pm

fore·cast

[fôr-kast]

VERB
predict or estimate (a future event or trend):

synonyms: predict ·prophesy ·prognosticate ·foretell ·foresee ·

NOUN
a prediction or estimate of future events, especially coming weather or a financial trend.

synonyms: prediction ·prophecy ·forewarning ·prognostication ·

If Seabreeze.com.au could foretell the future (rather than just forecast the future) I reckon Laurie would just buy a lottery ticket and be done with it all.

The only place you will get a 100% guaranteed forecast of the future on Seabreeze.com.au is in a PeterMac33 post over in the Heavy Weather forum.

Kozzie

QLD

1451 posts

Kozzie

QLD, 1451 posts

1 Dec 2015 7:34pm

i was under the impression ground swell forcast was basicly 100% accurate and that only wind swell might be changeable in a short period of time.

mousetrap

64 posts

mousetrap

WA, 64 posts

1 Dec 2015 10:03pm

I like that seabreeze predictions are sometimes a bit out, either by directions of winds or timings of new swells etc.. Makes cross referencing the weather worthwhile and with local knowledge of winds and seas i am still able to get a few sneaky, uncrowded hours of good surf coz the majority have taken a certain prediction for gospel.

makesurf

NSW

248 posts

makesurf

NSW, 248 posts

2 Dec 2015 10:48am

Carantoc said..
fore·cast
NOUN
a prediction or estimate of future events, especially coming weather..

If the prediction is sometimes out to the east and sometimes out to the west then that is understandable and consistent.

If it is only out in one direction then the models must be questioned.

[Said he had hoped, at least, when the wind blew due East,..]

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