House Prices

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evlPanda
evlPanda
NSW
9207 posts
NSW, 9207 posts
5 Dec 2010 12:26am
Ah well, it had to happen. Here's that topic.

But first this:
www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=wb-wdi&met=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:AUS&dl=en&hl=en&q=gdp+australia

Regarding the change in ratio between house prices and average wages over the last 15 years my new, radical theory (I'd like to thank this Pinot Noir) is that it is not high house prices, but low wages that are the problem. Why haven't they kept up with GDP like house prices have?

Fee free to shred my theory to pieces, I'm not attached to it. I'm no economist. I'd like to know where my theory is wrong however.
CJW
CJW
NSW
1731 posts
CJW CJW
NSW, 1731 posts
5 Dec 2010 1:06am
I clicked China to add it to the graph "no domestic data is available" I loled

Add the US, Japan, Germany and the UK for a bit of perspective. Gotta say the UK has been hit hard the last few years, daym! Graphs are cool!

Back on topic. House prices have appreciated way above CPI and GDP since about '00 and are currently running about 30% above GDP, that's a lot. We are also way more leveraged than we used to be, the household debt to GDP used to run at about 35% in the 90's and now is in the order of 100%. Crazy.

I don't really know a whole lot about it but basically it all must come back to supply/demand I reckon. I don't think you can point the finger at one thing; IE the Gov not releasing enough land or the developers 'trickling' releases to keep the prices high, the banks lending practices etc etc, but add it all up and it fuels the storm.

I don't necessarily think we will see a property bubble here in Aus but we might see house prices flat line for a while until inflation etc catches up.
busterwa
busterwa
3782 posts
3782 posts
5 Dec 2010 1:06am
chief gillard over at wranger immigration will ensure housing prices will increase for ever!
if you have a successful job and marriage your children will benafit as wealth is accumulated. Just stay out of unmanageable debit.
FlySurfer
FlySurfer
NSW
4460 posts
NSW, 4460 posts
5 Dec 2010 11:18am
Let's get one thing straight, the banks own most of Australia's property. Now with that grounding principal, if you were the banks what would you do to increase the value of your assets?

Scarcity?
Increase rent? (interest)
Borrow money from abroad to get more properties cheap?
....

Knowing that the banks hold the purse strings would you do anything to upset them? Would you give them real negative publicity? Have a veered in to conspiracy here?

I guess you could argue they sell money... but as any developer will tell you it's nye on impossible to get money to develop new properties.

Better hope nothing goes wrong with our economy cos the banks will make you suffer if you owe them... don't believe me, just read some history.
Mark _australia
Mark _australia
WA
23684 posts
WA, 23684 posts
5 Dec 2010 4:27pm
I think it is high house prices, not lower wages. In WA house prices doubled in less than 10 yrs but nothing else has doubled in price..... even if you account for the real CPI not the Goverments seasonally adjusted BS one

I blame the tax office, and govt policy that has allowed housing to become an investment for the rich. Really I think the encouragement for people to negative gear and the boasting amongst some middle class people that they have 3 houses etc is terrible, as shelter is a necessity of life. Would anyone be allowed to do it with food or water? No, there would be an outcry.

Mobydisc
Mobydisc
NSW
9029 posts
NSW, 9029 posts
5 Dec 2010 8:11pm
choco said...

Gee, want affordable housing move to the Riverland.
http://www.realestate.com.au/buy/in-barmera%2c+sa+5341/list-1?source=location-search


Doesn't look too bad but is there much industry and work around there? Its not incredibly cheap though.

Prices in Sydney are pretty high but the payoff is even an idiot like me can get a reasonably pleasant and well paid job there. Its not bad living in Sydney as long as you don't have to travel around very much or commute to work and back. It then becomes apparent the planning and investment in Sydney's transport network has been insufficient.

If you could get a family income of around $100K in an area like that you'd could do quite well.




pweedas
pweedas
WA
4642 posts
WA, 4642 posts
5 Dec 2010 5:44pm
Mark _australia said...

I blame the tax office, and govt policy that has allowed housing to become an investment for the rich. Really I think the encouragement for people to negative gear and the boasting amongst some middle class people that they have 3 houses etc is terrible, as shelter is a necessity of life. Would anyone be allowed to do it with food or water? No, there would be an outcry.




That was the common cry back about 30 years or so, around the time when Bob Hawke was Prime Minstral.
One of the first things he did when he got in was to kick all these so called "rich bastards" in the bum and cut out many of the tax deductions these so called rich pricks used when buying an investment property. In particular, they made them subject to capital gains tax at the full marginal tax rate applicable in the year it was sold. They were also looking at cutting out negative gearing on investment properties.
It worked really well. (NOT)
The so called "rich bastards" stopped buying investment houses, which meant most of the houses for rent disappeared within a year.
The price to rent a house went up about 50% in a year or so because there were very few to rent and thus only those who could afford to pay heaps got to rent them.
The price to buy a house didn't drop at all.
Fewer new houses were built because none were built for the rental market, so all up, there were less houses available to buy or rent.

Within two years the govenrment was being sledged for not providing rental accomodation for all the people who needed housing and couldn't find a house to rent because there weren't any.

They soon realised the consequences of what they had done and put things mostly back to how they were on the grounds that it was far cheaper to allow the so called "rich bastards" to invest their own private money in housing and claim any losses on their tax bill rather than the government having to pay the whole cost of providing rental housing to all who wanted it.
The difference in what that costs the government is huge. The tax deductions claimed are a mere pittance compared to what it costs to front up with the full purchase price to supply rental properties to the market.
From what I've seen over the years it works pretty well.
Most of the so called "rich bastards" are your everyday mums & dads who buy another property as a retirement benefit so they wont be dependent on the government when they retire. That's a huge saving for the government in not having to pay their pensions.
It seems to be a good solution all round.

It's so easy to look at what someone else has got and say everthing is their fault becausae they have got more than you.
If they have got more than you it's most likely because thay worked harder than you and didn't waste what they earnt.
And after all, even if they have 3 houses, they can only live in one of them. The rest will be on up for rental.
About one third of Australians rent for all sorts of reasons. If you stop providing houses for this market you have a real problem.


Having said all that, I do think Australian houses are waaay overpriced at the moment and will probably remain so while we have this so called boom economy going on and are bringing in thousands of people every year to work here.
It's a simple matter of supply and demand.
While people keep paying ridiculous prices for a house then other people will continue to ask ridiculuos prices for them.

How many people do you know of who when they get 2 million dollars for theri property at auction, turn around and say "Noooo,.. that's far too much. You can have it for $450,000" ??
You can count them on the fingers of a double handed amputee.



Mark _australia
Mark _australia
WA
23684 posts
WA, 23684 posts
5 Dec 2010 6:37pm
^^^ point taken pwee

However I think we have swung too far the other way. There needs to be little or no concessions for investment properties but make housing affordable and have market forces alone set prices. Then an average income earner can afford an average house, and the affordability means investors can buy in without needing to claim $30K a year in tax writeoffs, (which at the moment encourage housing to be an investment for the rich and not a necessity of life).
For the last 20yrs or so market forces have not set prices, largely the Govt policy has contributed to massive growth.

It pisses me right orf that as an above average income earner I cannot afford a below average house in a sh!t area in Perth ...... and no I don't have two new cars, a plasma, iPhone iPod iPad, go out to dinner every week blah blah

We need balance
Gizmo
Gizmo
SA
2865 posts
SA, 2865 posts
5 Dec 2010 9:38pm
Yes the price of houses have gone up BUT so has the size of what is regarded as now the "Standard Home", house sizes have increased but family sizes are smaller.
Is it like comparing oranges with apples?

But on the other hand the price of cars have dropped dramatically, instead of comparing it in actual $ value, work it out compared to the annual income as a percentage.

www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Previousproducts/1301.0Feature%20Article262005?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=1301.0&issue=2005&num=&view=
Mark _australia
Mark _australia
WA
23684 posts
WA, 23684 posts
5 Dec 2010 8:42pm
^^^ Yeah I'd rather have a new Commodore than a basic 3x1

Priorities.........

Yes the size of houses has increased, but as I said Gizzy it is well nigh impossible for an average income earner to afford a well below average house so something is very very wrong.

leftfield
leftfield
WA
200 posts
WA, 200 posts
5 Dec 2010 9:13pm
CJW said...

. Gotta say the UK has been hit hard the last few years, daym! Graphs are cool!



How so? I hear all this **** about the uk being F*ck*ed.. SOmetimes I just think it is (Australian/expat wishful thinking) Uk is still the fourth/fifth/sixth biggext economy in the world. And it is not based on digging stuff out the ground for china.
CJW
CJW
NSW
1731 posts
CJW CJW
NSW, 1731 posts
6 Dec 2010 12:21am
leftfield said...

CJW said...

. Gotta say the UK has been hit hard the last few years, daym! Graphs are cool!



How so? I hear all this **** about the uk being F*ck*ed.. SOmetimes I just think it is (Australian/expat wishful thinking) Uk is still the fourth/fifth/sixth biggext economy in the world. And it is not based on digging stuff out the ground for china.


Did you look at the data? Their GDP has dropped ~30% since 2007...that's a lot, hence my surprise. Compared to a lot of the other big economies at least in statistical terms they are a lot worse off.
leftfield
leftfield
WA
200 posts
WA, 200 posts
5 Dec 2010 9:51pm
CJW said...

leftfield said...

CJW said...

. Gotta say the UK has been hit hard the last few years, daym! Graphs are cool!



How so? I hear all this **** about the uk being F*ck*ed.. SOmetimes I just think it is (Australian/expat wishful thinking) Uk is still the fourth/fifth/sixth biggext economy in the world. And it is not based on digging stuff out the ground for china.


Did you look at the data? Their GDP has dropped ~30% since 2007...that's a lot, hence my surprise. Compared to a lot of the other big economies at least in statistical terms they are a lot worse off.


Yeah I did.. But the other economies you are looking at - Germany 10% fall. - Japan Irrelavant as they had that whole lost decade thing but are still strong as, because they chose not to talk them self into more of a recession. And the US the biggest trade defficit ever. Maybe I am just paranoid but it seems that the aussie media love bashing the brits.. My own media are hapy bashing ourselves. Where as yours likes to blow smoke up there own arses..
cisco
cisco
QLD
12365 posts
QLD, 12365 posts
6 Dec 2010 11:43am
House prices here are not going up but plenty of housing commission houses(units) are.

Maybe there is a message in there.

I suppose the government has to find somewhere to accommodate all these low skilled, low educated, low socio-economic and low moralled people they are importing by the boatload currently.
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