SomeOtherGuy said...
Thanks for the knowledgeable assessment JB. You've given me some food for thought.
Where I'm coming from is that sometimes, you've just gotta take the plunge. The Opera House (and I guess to a lesser extent the Bridge and the Snowy scheme) were originally untried, untested and potentially unbuildable. How much would it cost us to import this technology? How much do we miss out in earnings by letting someone else do it? It just seems that if we're going to move away from coal (and one day we have to, like it or not) then we either develop technology ourselves or else pay to import it.
I do agree that it would be nice if someone forked up the cash on spec, maybe 10 years ago it would have happened, but I cannot see it happening in the immediate future.
But, if there were a working prototype it would help sell the idea. I actually think that $750M is good value for energy innovation, 200MW output and the opportunity to demonstrate leadership in the field IF it works.
But to answer your question - I dont think there is any cost of not being on the bleeding edge. If they build one in the US I think it would only make construction of one here cheaper (as they will have ironed out some of the issues). The technology is licenced from Enviromission so that doesnt have any impact on cost, and there is nothing to import - it will be a major civil engineering project here too with local fabrication.
Personally I would love to be involved in a project like this - how friggin cool would it be?
JB