I live in Gero / horrocks and work in perth 4 days a week. No wind in Perth this week, Gero looks ordinary on the forecast ... But this arvo off shore ( ie point Moore ) has > 20 knots all afternoon.

I suspect the forecast is based on the airport numbers, nowhere near as good as the port authority numbers. Gero is unreal, wish I was there now!

Cheers

Like Laurie said, the forecast that you see on Seabreeze, BOM, etc. is the one most likely (probable) to happen. But meteorological models can't represent exacty, at all moments, the chaotic atmospheric dynamic system.

Models try to be accurate, but errors are introduced by the use of imperfect initial conditions (that are impossible to know exactly...), amplified by the chaotic nature of the dynamical system and errors introduced because of imperfections in the model formulation and equations. There's also uncertainty on the observed data used in the models...

Be more forgiving

You need to read between the lines

I've found looking at wind charts do my head in, mother nature delivers when she wants, just be sure to have your kites at all times,