NickT said...

Is it true that the cyclone activity up north signifies the end of the season? Just wondering if we're copying last year, good month in November, average December followed by sh!t January?

And then the wind came in, some grumpy sod gave ya a red thumb, gave you a green to counter, no worries , just gimmie a beer next time you see me

It feels like it up here. The last decent wind we had was before christmas.
Humid, rain and thunderstorms already.

I thought the heat would bring the seabreeze in no?? Land heats up, sea doesn't, causes pressure gradient between the two and presto!! Seabreeze..

Am I thinking of this the wrong way?? If not, why the heat without the fun wind??

who cares, its windy over here!

Cheers for the lesson Eppo!! Gotta get my head around this a bit better

It is a bit reminiscint of the last 2 Perth seasons. Particularly 10/11.. Up to Xmas was sweet. 40 degrees on Xmas day and the temps didn't change much for the remainder of the season = limp ass seabreezes.

But hey got out yesterday! Was a bit of a surprise actually.. Has been a couple of ok breezes this season when it's been hot - not really the norm

The "WHY?" is due to seasonal shifts in water temperatures.

There is plenty of info on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) published by the Bureau:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/about_IOD.shtml

According to the Bureau the outlook for the Tropical Pacific (which seems to affect the IOD) remains neutral, thus suggesting more WA breezes to come, perhaps:

www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

There is a lot of comparison being drawn on this forum of the 2007-2009 period to the 2010-2012 period. Differences can probably be attributed to:

** 2007-09 Primarily being El Nino and Negative IOD
** 2010-12 We move to La Nina and Positive IOD
** 2013 seems to be neither La Nina nor El Nino (neutral ENSO) and PositiveIOD

Rising water temperatures seem to me to be just another symptom in a chain of events...not a cause.

I'd be interested to know why you think the water temperatures are so high?

Another stroke of random bad luck, all being well otherwise?

laurie said...
Troughs happen every year in WA, and this one is no exception. Add a cyclone up north and it can make them a bit more prolonged than usual.

Wind will be back to normal programming soon...

Read how it works here:
www.seabreeze.com.au/info/wind.asp

Also, check the latest synoptic (click on 7 day forecast) .. cyclone fades, high cell approaches from SW with a cold front brushing the south coast.

Fresh breezes & a pulse of swell... happy days not too far off..

www.seabreeze.com.au/graphs/wa_synoptic.asp?loc=PERT&stateid=0

Hey Laurie, can you pls push this trough through a bit earlier than forecast.. I'm back to work on Wednesday :(

Dave Whettingsteel said...
What temp are you calling out as high, and why?

Actually I doubt very much that high water temperatures are the cause of our changing WA weather patterns, so I was not "calling them". I was responding to Bene313 who said water temps were to blame. He included references to the Indian Ocean Dipole. This phenomenon has also been quoted in the media lately.

No disrespect to you Laurie and good onya for your optimism. Almost made me feel a little better ---- I would LIKE to believe you, but the charts look nothing like they used to for this time of the year. Of course troughs did occurr, but they did not *dominate* an entire season.

For the sake of all of us and wind sports in WA, I hope I'm completely wrong somehow....

Dave, that was my original point I kited at least 20 days in nov, but less in dec, what does jan hold.

Last year when the cyclones appeared up north the season faulted and we saw a lot of trough's and was thinking this year was heading down the same path.

Yup, that was one semi-frontal day forecast. Presently it's gone even WORSE with another trough on the way!

It used to be green arrows all week, all month! Proper thermal conditions. Body would ache, eyebrows bleached white from constant kiting. In January I'd be kite tripping up and down the coast, Port Gregory, Corros, Cervantes, Wedge etc etc ------forever gone.

Another non season.

hey guys were worn out from suping kiting and surfing .What a season!!!
hope theres wind for kitestock

Lol. Nice one.