Strong El Nino here to stay

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bene313

1347 posts

bene313

WA, 1347 posts

6 Oct 2015 1:24pm

El Niño persists as positive IOD emerges in a warm Indian Ocean
The tropical Pacific ocean and atmosphere are reinforcing each other, maintaining a strong El Niño that is likely to persist into early 2016. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are more than 2 °C above average, exceeding El Niño thresholds by well over 1 °C, and at levels not seen since the 1997–98 event.

More:
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

bene313

1347 posts

bene313

WA, 1347 posts

6 Oct 2015 1:30pm

For those in the West, we are affected by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):

~~http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/about_IOD.shtml~~

The above relates positive IOD with a warmer than usual Indian Ocean. However that section of colder water near Indonesia and at the top of Australia is what affects us. My understanding is that along our coast, currents from the north bring that colder east Indian Ocean water, thus adding to the seabreeze affect. (Please correct me if I am wrong)

austin

671 posts

austin

671 posts

7 Oct 2015 7:09am

It will be windy, now lets move on

ste

524 posts

ste

WA, 524 posts

7 Oct 2015 7:31am

Even a crap season in Perth is good.

prea

QLD

184 posts

prea

QLD, 184 posts

7 Oct 2015 9:32am

Is this why there are no northerlys on the gold coast

SUPSurferQLD

QLD

340 posts

SUPSurferQLD

QLD, 340 posts

7 Oct 2015 10:07am

prea said..
Is this why there are no northerlys on the gold coast

perhaps...... if anything, I would have thought there would be MORE chance of northerly seabreezes, as the water temp is likely to stay cooler for longer...

then again, I haven't really noticed much difference so far about this season than last year. The Northerly's we have had are still being knocked out by 3pm once the storm clouds roll over from the cooling effect.

Hopefully the season is just dryer and more likely to continue into Jan/Feb, rather than the southerly garbage we had last season....

bene313

1347 posts

bene313

WA, 1347 posts

7 Oct 2015 8:42am

^ El Nino is usually associated with stronger seabreezes. Although I'm not sure about how this works over east.

mazdon

1199 posts

mazdon

1199 posts

7 Oct 2015 8:44am

bene313 said..
For those in the West, we are affected by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):

~~http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/about_IOD.shtml~~

The above relates positive IOD with a warmer than usual Indian Ocean. However that section of colder water near Indonesia and at the top of Australia is what affects us. My understanding is that along our coast, currents from the north bring that colder east Indian Ocean water, thus adding to the seabreeze affect. (Please correct me if I am wrong)

hey bene

my understanding is that the colder water just under png/indo creates a weaker leeuwin (warm) current pushing down from teh north, so the capes (colder) current from the south pushes up a bit further and stronger from the south west and into the lower and mid-west region then "normal" - which makes the waters off of our coast generally cooler for the next few months = stronger breezes as you said.
look up pattiaratchi for papers/research info on the capes current.

i'm sure someone has a more technical knowledge than that - but that's what i was taught.
cheers

jeroen

QLD

38 posts

jeroen

QLD, 38 posts

7 Oct 2015 7:40pm

The water under Indonesia, thus in the Indian Ocean swept towards Indonesia by the trades, isn't that cold this year. In non El Nino years the water is much colder in our windy season.

The trades have been weak and it seems that didn't bring the cold water. The wind started late this season. For example, at the spot where I ride at Tabuhan Island in East Java we normally start to have solid trade winds of around 20 knots in May / June. The season stops around end of October. This year the winds kicked in in June / July, but we still had non windy days in July and August.

I was expecting the season to start late and end late, but it seems it has already stopped..

Normally in September the trade winds turn more south. That hasn't happened yet this year. Let's hope the winds will turn south soon because that means some spots in Eastern Indonesia will go off :)

prea

QLD

184 posts

prea

QLD, 184 posts

8 Oct 2015 10:48am

Last year there were at least 10 northerlys days in August, and at least 15 days in September
so far this year 2 northerlys in August and 2 or 3 northerlys in September
But there are plenty of southerlys, a lot more than the normal for this time of year, they dont normally start until December.
Is this El Nino

kemp90

QLD

1694 posts

kemp90

QLD, 1694 posts

8 Oct 2015 12:53pm

prea said...
Last year there were at least 10 northerlys days in August, and at least 15 days in September
so far this year 2 northerlys in August and 2 or 3 northerlys in September
But there are plenty of southerlys, a lot more than the normal for this time of year, they dont normally start until December.
Is this El Nino

If we didnt have the SE we would have more NE. At my place we have already had more NE winds then last year

djt91184

QLD

1211 posts

djt91184

QLD, 1211 posts

8 Oct 2015 2:42pm

eliknow it 20 knots right now out there

Lambie

QLD

742 posts

Lambie

QLD, 742 posts

8 Oct 2015 9:06pm

East coast - cool sea and hot dry land = big differential in airmass potential :-)
That equation usually means great sea breezes!!

Triggerhappy

174 posts

Triggerhappy

WA, 174 posts

8 Oct 2015 11:08pm

From my experience here in WA.

When it was La nina the seabreeze struggles to get near 20 knots all season and the seabreeze dies by 7pm.

When neutral the seabreezes are averaging 20 knots and blows till 8-9

Full blown El nino is going to be friggin awesome.. bring it on :)

Plummet

4862 posts

Plummet

4862 posts

9 Oct 2015 6:07am

Super El nino have kicked in here in the naki. Westerlies as far as the eye can see.

www.swellmap.co.nz/surfing/new-zealand/fitzroy-beach

I'm looking foward to at least 3 months of insane wind!

simonp

216 posts

simonp

216 posts

9 Oct 2015 7:26am

It has been rather windy lately, it might pay to secure the water tank.

Plummet

4862 posts

Plummet

4862 posts

9 Oct 2015 12:32pm

simonp said..
It has been rather windy lately, it might pay to secure the water tank.

classic.

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