Just a quick snapshot of where we are up to in Vic, this time last year the water in the bay was 2 degrees warmer, and the sea-breezes starting to kick in mid-October, the water needs to be about 17 degrees, both for the snapper to come in, and the sea-breezes to start. We have had a cold spell here for about the last 4 weeks which stopped the water warming up, so it looks like sea-breezes will be about another 3 to 4 weeks away. Other than that there has been heaps of frontal wind to keep everyone busy, and the surf down the West Coast has been cranking nearly non-stop for the last 2 and half weeks.

Fingers crossed its another good year.

Shouldn't cooler sea temperatures mean better sea breezes (due to the greater DIFFERENCE in temperatures between land and sea), hence if the bay is 2 degrees cooler this year the sea breezes should increase (providing we get some warm days).

The strength of the sea breeze is directly proportional to the temperature difference between the land and the sea.

Consider that the land has also not heated up yet.

the same sun heats both land and water.
Land heats up quicker, to increase the differential.
So the water temperature is more an indicator of overall Temp conditions.