Hey don't worry about the kite tour thing. I went there last year in Nov and Dec. I stayed mostly in cumbuco and didn't have any problems meeting like minded people. I travelled alone, but met heaps of great people and still keep in touch with them now.
Nov and Dec is peck time though, but I hear Aug/ Sept can be really good as well as you will have the lagoon to yourself. I stayed in this new pousada (basically bed and breakfast) for 6 weeks and it cost me like $16 a night. I can't find his website at the moment but I will send off an email to the guy who built the website and get the link.
Comparing it to bagdad is a bit of a stretch, but as long you use common sense you will be fine. 3 kiters got held up by bandits late last year and had all their stuff stolen, so travel insurance would come in handy. I was there for 2 months and never had a problem.

Big tip: Learn some basic brasilian portuguese. It will make eating out, paying for bills etc heaps easier. Also will be a big hit with the ladies ;)

Any other questions feel free to PM me.

Cheers