I think its a pretty normal start; we definitely haven't had an unusually good start to the season but we have still have had a couple of strong seabreezes that were around 25 knots when the forecast was for 15-20 knots.

In the last 2 weeks I have had around 4 good sessions, which has been normal for this time of year IMO

I'm hoping the consistency will improve over November and the seabreeze weather patterns

I would look to head north around Lancelin and wedge for good winds during OCT/NOV

Been keeping an eye on this
3pm readings km/hr from BOM, left column this year, right hand for last year.

Oct 2015 www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW6046.latest.shtml
Oct 2014 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201410/html/IDCJDW6046.201410.shtml

It's the worst start in the Midwest that I can remember. I was pretty sure that when Matt988 started harvesting 3 or 4 weeks ago that would bring the wind in and I could really piss him off. But even that didn't work! Maybe 1 or 2 decent days.

ChiroTrev said..
Lets hope the season comes on strong and lasts until April!!

As for these average winds, dirtbikes and mountain bikes keep the body moving!

Does Crossfit, Netflix and red wine work? Haha

tgcp said...

Matt988 said..



I'm with you been a crap start. No wind in Exmouth when we were there. And been Bugga all since even for my 14. Worked out well for me though as I've been in a header for the last three weeks and haven't missed a thing

You guys were so unlucky, we've had great wind since you left

That was almost guaranteed to happen. At least eppo didn't get much the week after either haha.

Crap in QLD too.

I have to use the tides to get a kite in....

default said...
Surprised at how warm the water is already. Not a good sign

I've noticed that too, thought it was just me. Might be good for a cyclone to track down this way though...

Haha Matt nearly got burnt jocks... Managed to set fire to the header a couple of times!

Correct me if I'm wrong. I though that warm water means more wind.

When the water is warm (usually around 26 degrees Celsius), very rapid hot air rises from the surface of the ocean, the water evaporates then condenses forming clouds and generating huge amount of energy, that's when the strongest winds also come... That's how El Nino that everyone is talking about occurs.

So don't worry, I think this summer will be so windy, hopefully not stormy tho..

Majed

Maj said..
Correct me if I'm wrong. I though that warm water means more wind.

When the water is warm (usually around 26 degrees Celsius), very rapid hot air rises from the surface of the ocean, the water evaporates then condenses forming clouds and generating huge amount of energy, that's when the strongest winds also come... That's how El Nino that everyone is talking about occurs.

So don't worry, I think this summer will be so windy, hopefully not stormy tho..

Majed

Warm water kills the seabreeze. We had really warm water (like 26oC) in 2010/2011. Was a really crap season with tropical like weather. WA seabreeze DOES NOT like tropical weather.

DJ is right. The warm water can suck the ex-cyclones down south. While TERRIBLE for kiting, in surfing we can experience those rare long period NW swells. Where rights pop up everywhere and the NW novelty surf breaks fire up. This also happened in the 2010/2011 season. Was a La Nina year.

So hopefully the current warm water is a short term anomaly. November is usually a killer month with the water still cold off the coast.

Maj said..
Correct me if I'm wrong. I though that warm water means more wind.

When the water is warm (usually around 26 degrees Celsius), very rapid hot air rises from the surface of the ocean, the water evaporates then condenses forming clouds and generating huge amount of energy, that's when the strongest winds also come... That's how El Nino that everyone is talking about occurs.

Majed, you are wrong.

all the plots on the bom pages back up what default is saying. 20deg is pretty warm for right now.
www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/forecasts/idyoc10.shtml?region=10&forecast=1#

but what is more apparent is that it is a solid belt of warm water pushing down, and the eddies that have the cooler water from further offshore of perth that then gets entrained in and fills some of the coastal basins is really non-existent.

pretty obvious push down of warm water between say kalbarri and here. not really what i was expecting either this year...hopefully the current from south of the cape asserts itself in some way soon.

Looks like the next few days are green green green! I think it has officially started

Pattern looking better next week.. game on

mazdon said..
please please don't jinx it!!!

haha, thats usually my call.. but thought I should be positive every so often

apologies if it changes

default said..

mazdon said..
please please don't jinx it!!!

haha, thats usually my call.. but thought I should be positive every so often

apologies if it changes

see what you did!?!