The forecasting seems to be getting much worse, they sometimes change the wind speed and direction a few times a day.
A really bad one a while back the three day forecast was NW winds 10-15 knots and the chance of a thunderstorm each day.
the next day the wind was blowing about 15kts SE at 8am then just kept getting stronger till by lunchtime it was 30 knots and stayed like that for the rest of the day till dropping off that evening, of course their updated forecast that afternoon was changed then mentioned the SE winds at 25-30 knots but it was too late by then...lucky i wasnt anchored as mentioned recently on this forum in a bommie field offshore. Thankfully i was in a protected river.
Yesterdays forecast had wind speed and direction changed at 3am and then again at 10am
Are they just letting the computer models spit out whatever?
Very frustrating

I feel sorry for those in the majority who live up the east coast. Accurate forecasts are a distinct bonus in the modern world.

Here in the south (Vic & Tas) things have never been better. I live my whole life at the behest of the weather gods (Farmer,outdoorsman & sailor) .
The short/medium range forecasts for the south are now very accurate, if you know how to distiguish weather from weather outcomes (temperature, mm of rain).

And if you don't own your own barometer (at home & on-board), and know how to use it - then don't complain.

Long live the cardigans in the bureau!!!

I don't get how a barometer can tell you an exact wind direction and speed. I certainly don't think the weather forecasts are bad, they are excellent. It is pretty simple to go onto Windy or similar and even check that all the different models agree. If they don't then you know that the forecast is less reliable. I certainly remember the bad old days in the 90s when we would hear forecasts saying it was blowing 15 from the north east in the Whitsundays when it was blowing 20 from the southeast. Modern forecasts are certainly worth every cent we are taxed for the BOM, especially when you can back them up with Windy and Predict Wind.

I sh!t you not, I once saw one windsock at Hervey Bay airport showing 15-20 knots a complete 180* to a second windsock showing 15-20. How can you ever expect to forecast that one...

I was under the impression that BoM relied heavily on NOAA models and that ceased to be available to them under the current US Administration.
I believe this site as well as Willy Weather gets there information from sensors measuring for the BoM. My observation is that the forecast become acceptably accurate closer to the day of concern.

On the actual day nothing beats looking out the window 😎

Kankama said..
I don't get how a barometer can tell you an exact wind direction and speed.

OK...The barometer provides the fine tuning to published barometric charts, which are produced 6-hourly. A barometer can never be 'wrong'; we use it to effectively update the charts, which gives surprisingly accurate direction and reasonable windspeed.

And for the officionados of old school seamanship, there is always the Golden Globe Race - on now. All competitors carry an old barograph, which effectively creates a slice of a barometric chart; they must then deduce the rest. The only allowable external forecasts are from HF - not very accessible in the Southern Ocean.

Toph said..
I was under the impression that BoM relied heavily on NOAA models and that ceased to be available to them under the current US Administration.

The bureau uses multiple models. If I was restricted to just one model, I would use ECMWF. You can select your prefered model on e.g. Windy, if you wish.
My attention was recently drawn to the different predictions of models while becalmed in the middle of the English Channel.

I have a barometer and used to use it a fair bit before Meteye and Windy. What it couldn't tell me were upper level troughs, and differences in localised effects that Meteye shines at. It was good at letting me know that the trades were back, or that we may have a change at getting south as the high left, but it was a fairly blunt tool.

Meteye/Windy/Predict wind is a total game changer, it shows so many localised effects that broad air pressure cannot. I find it truly amazing and use it even for my Laser racing inshore. Old style and radio forecasts - Seal Rocks to Broken Bay and others, are so different that they are an order of magnitude less reliable. I truly don't understand how anyone can think that the modern forecasts are not a massive step forward.

Couple a modern forecast with the ability to watch in real time the wind at different coastal stations, and you have an amazing ability to - eg - know when a nasty southerly is coming up the coast.

I did this about 6 years ago. I really wanted to get home and the wind forecast was nasty, building to over 40, but I had to get home. I left Jervis Bay early, sailed fast and tracked the increase coming up the coast behind me on the observations page. I could see the front feeding in behind me off Kiama and dropped the main, then we sat doing 10s under a tiny scrap of genoa as Wollongong issued a Securite. Meteye had huge breeze offshore and about 12 inshore - lo and behold, I had to motor across Middle Harbour to anchor it got so light. That Tassie trip had me loving the models.

The other time we were waiting near the top of Tassie tryign to come home. The models all lined up that in 4 days there would be a stationary high. So we cruised up Flinders and when it went light, we motored across Bass Strait. We got into Eden about 6 hours before the noreaster started coming in. Same on the way down - the models all lined up, we put on the speed and we got into St Helens about 10 hours before fully forecast and super times nasty sou wester. I would never sail offshore without looking up the models and checking their agreement.

A related question, Sea People (sailing La Vagabonde’s social app), has just released a wind module including 3 h routing - it’s EcWMF and other models, but unlike Windy doesn’t pick up BoMs ACCESS model. They are promising 100 yrs for free. Haven’t used properly yet, but with 10 day forecasts iits certainly going to be interesting how it plays out for Windy and Predictwind.

I'll probably get a visit at 5am now by a couple of BOM "senator shoebridge" type goons to deliver me a message about some things ive recently posted online about their forecasting..

Yes - New BOM for those looking out the window-not for us that are out there !

+1 for Windy !!!

I'm still using the old forecasts and radar for Melbourne and Port Phillip. Access via baywx.com.au. One day I'll have adapt to the new rubbish, but until then......

Cheers, Graeme