I was looking on the BOM website at the forecast and spotted a line I hadn't seen before:

'Please Be Aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum wave may be up to twice the height.'

...twice the height?!

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW11400.html

I think this is to cover their backsides, especially after that tragic Syd-Hobart race, and to bring attention that the elements are very variable.

You always here about people being washed off rocks and boats over turned by that 'freak' waves. Fact is it's really not that freaky!

Sailor beware

DavMen

Can you name the truck with four wheel drive,
smells like a steak and seats thirty-five..

Canyonero! Canyonero!

Well, it goes real slow with the hammer down,
It's the country-fried truck endorsed by a clown!

Canyonero! (Yah!) Canyonero!

12 yards long, 2 lanes wide,
65 tonnes of American Pride!

Canyonero! Canyonero!

Top of the line in utility sports,
Unexplained fires are a matter for the courts!

Canyonero! Canyonero! (Yah!)

She blinds everybody with her super high beams,
She's a squirrel crushing, deer smacking, driving machine!

Canyonero!-oh woah, Canyonero! (Yah!)

Drive Canyonero!

Woah Canyonero!

Woah!

Warning, The Federal Highway comission has ruled the
Canyonero unsafe for highway or city driving.

Same deal with the BOM.

Well I think the BOM does a pretty good job. After all what else are we going to base a 2hr 40 min drive to Gerroa on other than information on the BOM website? The hit rate on a good noreaster is pretty good, better than 95% I'd say. OK we also miss a few good ones but at least you don't waste a drive.

The 40% warning came in after the infamous Hobart race. Up until then they'd forecast the average wind, assuming sailors knew about gusts. There was a storm warning issued prior to that race - a storm goes up to an average wind of 56 knots before it is called a severe storm. If one boat's anemometer on a pitching mast top measured one 90 knot gust - can't really blame the forecast.

I've found the BOM forecasts to be exceptionally crap. So many times they say it's 20 to 30 knots and I get to the beach and it's more like 2 to 3 knots.

Apart from the storms that beached the pasha bulka there has been bugger all wind on weekend the last 2 months which is really bugging me as I can't get my new gear out.

quote:

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given the above, please explain why, before the drought broke here in Sydney, the gum tree in my front yard dropped the most amazing number of gumnuts, ever, & we have been here 18 years.

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Maybe they were just sick of hanging around with nothing to do?

Also interesting is that some researchers have found that the ionosphere (85Km+ in the sky) can predict earthquakes up to 6 days in advance?! The ionosphere is the one that deflects radio waves and was used to transmit radio signals. Folks noticed that the radio signals went haywire and then there was an earthquake a few days later.

Back to (bad) forecasting...

Rubbish in Rubbish out. All forecasts can only be calculated from available data. Offshore data comes from free wandering buoys, planes, boats, weather balloons and of course the trusty live readings. On any given day, there can be more or less of these inputs which will in turn affect the quality of the forecast.

Don't forget that weather is 3d. To forecast, you need obs vertically , not just at the surface. So, no matter how clever the forecasting gets, one of the biggest obstacles can be the lack of "real data" to kick off the calcs with...

Well, I don't care if BOM have exaggerated tomorrow's forecast a bit, after all 40 - 50 knots might be a tad windy for my 4.2