BETTER WIND??? I already get accused of having TOO MUCH WIND

Just for the record, it's "El Nino" and "La Nina".

The scientists call it the Southern Oscillation Index, you're right about us getting more rain, it's been predicted to swing to La Nina around March this year for months.

From here: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#HAPPENS

During El Ni?o the equatorial easterly trade winds diminish, resulting in an eastward shift of the Pacific warm pool and associated area of tropical convective rainfall. During a strong El Ni?o the warm pool covers the entire eastern half of the equatorial Pacific.

During La Ni?a the easterly trade winds strengthen, colder-than-average sea surface temperatures develop over the eastern equatorial Pacific, and the Pacific warm pool and equatorial convective rainfall are confined to the extreme western part of the basin.

Yippee Although I don't know how this affects sea breezes in SEQ... Very very tricky this weather business!

hi sonic, a bit more info for you.

we're not in La Nina conditions yet. at the moment the conditions are neutral. sea temps need to get a bit higher over a period of a months for a La Nina to occur.

the good news with the LA Nina events are that we get lots more rain and lots more cylones tracking down the coast. during the El nino period the cyclones tend to travel away from australia.

cyclones are caused by the SE trade winds meeting the northern trades above australia and causing a trough where cyclones are born. during a LA nina event the cyclones are thrown out of the trough and drag it southwards creating very good wet season.

the big tip is to look for a long line of highs around the south of australia and a long line of lows in the north of australia. this means the SE trades are about to fire. and is what happened last year when the east coast lows came down at this time of year.

i would imagine that during a La Nina event the NE seabreezes are less. because the sea and land temps have a smaller differential. however the SE trade winds should be stronger when they eventually kick in at the end of February.

http://library.thinkquest.org/11641/wind.htm

are these things supposed to alternate once per year? i thought we had just had 5 years of straight El Nino conditions?

just read that the cyclone is expected to be named cyclone "odette" tomorrow.

if it does what the predictions are forecasting we should get severe winds and flooding in SEQ. suggestion is that it may cross the coast between mackay and fraser island.

of course it may also turn and head out to sea or just die.

centre is around lihou reef. low pressure and not much wind. http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/qld-coastal-stations-map.shtml

winds at marion reef are almost 40 knots.

aha!! and this seems to coincide with the year that windsurfing numbers seemed to drop right off - especially after 4 years of el nino in a row

maybe La Nina is the second coming

Wednesday, 18 October 2006
Outlook for the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season 2006-07

On the basis of the best available information, it is considered unlikely that the coming cyclone season will be quite as active as last season. In 2005-06, there were 5 tropical cyclones in the Queensland region with both LARRY and MONICA having severe impacts on the east coast.

The general climate pattern is typical of the developing stage of an El Niño event. Sea surface temperatures are cooler than average in the region and sustained negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index have been recorded. Furthermore, there is considered to be an elevated risk that these El Niño conditions will soon become fully established, and then persist through until Autumn next year.

The Regional Director of the Bureau of Meteorology in Queensland, Mr Jim Davidson said today that from a climatological perspective, cyclone occurrence on and near the east Queensland coast is lower during El Niño conditions than in Neutral or La Niña years. Accordingly, cyclone numbers this season are more likely to be below average. At least two cyclones are expected however and one of these may well be severe.

At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclones that might develop. Historically, the first cyclone of the season has often occurred in December, but this is not always the case.

Mr Davidson reaffirmed that the most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides and floods, to understand the warning service, and to be sensibly prepared.

It is also worthwhile to note that the steady growth in coastal development has served to significantly increase community vulnerability to tropical cyclones, with mitigation being a widely accepted strategy to reduce the impact.

The best source of information on cyclones is the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre's web site at www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone. People are advised to take time out to read the "Surviving Cyclones" brochure as it provides timely advice on preparing for tropical cyclones - and includes a summary of the warning service.

The seasonal outlook for the Gulf of Carpentaria is issued by the Northern Territory Regional Office.

For further information: Jim Davidson 0409 641 216 or Mike Bergin 0402 421 251.

World Wide Web www.bom.gov.au

but that report is 4 months old?

yeah! Stuff El Nino - the dirty white honky. it's la nina for me, at least she puts out

check this out for WA.

www.seabreeze.com.au/gallery/gallery.asp?imageid=3639

quote:

---

Originally posted by junior freestyle

"During La Niña the easterly trade winds strengthen, colder-than-average sea surface temperatures develop over the eastern equatorial Pacific".

doesn't that say that water temp is cooler during la nina and if so wouldn't that result in a larger difference between land and sea temps resulting in better seabreezes?

---

Hey Junior,

Eastern equatorial Pacific means the bit near South America, not the bit near Australia. It's a tad confusing at first, I had to read it twice to get the gist as well

Hey Gestalt,

Just read that library link from your previous post and was absolutely stopped in my tracks when I read that

"Anticyclones are low pressure systems that develop when the air mass from the upper atmosphere descend upon the ground."

Mate - From my 3 years study of meteorolgy and "anticylone" is a system of "High" pressure.

Suggest - we take this reference piece with a 'piece of salt'

- Justin

hey drjukka, yep right you are. i just read it myself.

i think it is a typo, everything else seems right. they are formed by sinking air and spin anticlockwise etc.

i think it should have said high pressure and was mistakenly written as low pressure.

hi sonic.

here is another point of view. seems to be a particularly good one at this point. but sun spots are the cause.

www.abc.net.au/landline/long-range-weather-forecaster-haydon-walker/2685846

hi j,

i've been lurking around weatherzone for a while now. there is lots of knowledge for sure.

i did a serch and not much came up regards seabreezes. it seems because they are fairly regular and predictable no-one really investigates it much.

i appreciate your help non the less. see you on the water some time

another j.