there you go I am on this side now!
found a place in Maroubra by the beach.

But what's goin on with the 7 days forecast I have been checkin for the last 2 weeks. Seems to me that they don't fit at all, 1- what's happening, 2- the written BOM forecast, 3- even the individual graph for Sydney harbour.
Seems to me that it is everywhere windier that the 7 days forecast.
Laurie what's the deal here? is it Sydney harbour forecast that you use for the general 7 days forecast? All the arrows are red which basically mean no wind at all but I could see the ocean it definitely more like yellow arrow .

I am a newbie here so where do Sydney windsurfers check the forecast exactly? Is the 7 day forecast any usefull then?
My gear arrive tomorrow so after that I 'll be ready to go anywhere to chase the wave.

Faultless.
www.windycreek.com/weatherrock.html

Hi Den,

Thanks for asking! All the 7 day forecasts are for the general coastal area, not for Sydney, the city kind of Sydney - just like Perth, Adelaide & Brisbane - the capitals are inland from the coast. There was some talk of labelling them "Sydney Coastal Forecast", but opted to leave it as just "Sydney"

Regards the accuracy, they're pretty close, and of course the further out the forecast, the more handfuls of salt you need to add to the prediction. On the day, they are usually within 5 knots, and that's not too bad... It's amazing how much the forecasts are appealing when there's more green than red!

Just like your luck, the weather can change in an instant!

Enjoy .. Laurie

..gotta get me one of those Weather Rocks (TM)

You kinda get used to it, Leski. I find the Seabreeze BOM forecast accurate for swell and good for general wind direction as well as relative strength - but way too pessimistic for actual wind strength. Last weekend for instance we had 25-30 knots on Sat with gusts to 35 but the forecast even on the day was still yellow! Also you have to allow for a seabreeze effect because the computer model doesn't seem to.

Still prefer the computer model over the bureau guys though. But that's another story.

I have allways found that forecast to be out by 10 knts +, the actuals are OK. Atleast it gives an indication of which way the strength/direction is heading
I use the following BOM site, gives you 3 or 4 days. www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/coastalwaters.shtml

For actuals I use the following which is updated every 10 minutes. If you get to know the location of the measuring stations you can track a change as ist's coming in and time your trip on the day.
www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65066.shtml

Good sailing

Des

exzacty Stehsegler, as you said like today a lot windier than what the forecast shows..I mean you don't have to be a meteorologists just check the graph the forecast was showing not even 15 knots!!!!. So then what's the point of having a forecast for "Sydney" if no one sail where the forecast is maint to be.
Does anyone sail in the harbour (ok apart from dinghy sailin)??

I don't want to be a pain but I was used to follow the 7 day forecast a fair bit in WA and used to find it pretty accurate.

Laurie? is there really nothin to do?.
there may be people here that would have suggestion as to where the forecast would be more realistic and usefull for the sailors.


I think it is time for NSW to get a North Sydney (or central coast), South Sydney, Wollongong..PROPA 7 DAY FORECAST!!!!!!!!

and not just because I've just moved here

quote:

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Originally posted by leski
I think it is time for NSW to get a North Sydney (or central coast), South Sydney, Wollongong..PROPA 7 DAY FORECAST!!!!!!!!

and not just because I've just moved here

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Haha! They're coming, as well as a lot more east coast graphs. Watch this space...

I think any forecast beyond 4 days has an error margin of at least 60%.

This is mainly due to the reason that low/ high pressure cells can form unexpectedly over the Eastern part of our continent. This is probably influenced through many factors such as drought conditions inland, el Niño effect, topography etc. .

In Perth on the other low pressure systems most of the time come in straight from the Antarctic ocean and highs form due the extreme heat inland. there is also very little in the way to stop them.

I might be completely wrong of course... afterall I am not a meterologist.

As for Sydney weather there are a few rules of thumb I would say work most of the time:

1) If a southerly change is forecast, 90% of the time it's almost spot on down to the time it hits Sydney. They are generally forcast 4 days in advance.

2) The more westerly the change has in it the more unpredictable the forecast becomes.

3) If a strong North Easterly is blowing for a few days it is often followed by a strong southerly buster on the 4th or 5th day.

4) In years with a strong El Ninio there will be a strong North Easter Seabreeze. The years following an El Ninio year are generally more unreliable.

oh, and here my favourite:

5) If it's sunny, there are no thunderstorms forecast for the Illawara region and there is no general southerly airflow you pretty much have a 100% guarantee for it to be windy down in Gerroa. Even if Sydney is dead calm you can get a NEer with 25-30 knts. @ Shoalhaven Heads (just south of Gerroa.)

As I said I am not a meterologist and this is mostly from my own observations.

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