If you hadn't already seen this
earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/engage/dynamic-earth-updates/bay-windsis THE source for gauging the bay conditions. -sorry seabreeze

Personally I feel Rye is fluky unless a northery is hammering in. But will be excellent to get the water starts happening - once you have them under control... Southerlies look to elwood, st kilda or brighton. Northerlies go greens point (end of south rd on beach rd)
I have found from Mornington thru Franga seems to be a hole for wind - ie its usually weak, off shore or doesn't make landfall there...
Final 2cents worth - southerlies are more reliable and can build in the arvo on top of a seabreeze, northerlies will usually be strong until midday and then "usually" die down.