The wind looked really good today (black pole), but I don't have any experience with southys:

This from black pole today (www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS60701/IDS60701.95675.shtml):

10/04:00pm S 19 24
10/03:30pm S 21 26
10/03:00pm- S 19 25
10/02:30pm- S 17 23
10/02:00pm- S 17 21
10/01:30pm- S 15 20

How bad (big) will the swell be on a 1.5 metre tide tomorrow arv ?

Ja

Just do it!

shark b-- if you google up the coastline in semaphore/nth haven you can see it runs nth /sth ,so sthlywind is cross shore and choppy,how choppy depends on strength,but pain in butt if you are uphauling.south/stheast is more cross/offshore so much less chop in close but very gusty,also pain in butt for learner.Nth haven between the groynes is less choppy in both conditions.Just be aware a sth/eastly is offshore and thats where you will end up if you cant uphaul to get going.
Ilearnt at west lakes/south side of bower rd,,sail from one shore to other,good for practising water start cause your standing in sand/mud and good but gusty in southerlies..hope this helps

Gunna: thanks for the advice about the chop. I've outgrown West Lakes now. Too boring :)