actiomax said..>>>>>> But god as its sold to humans is all good and all powerful.
.

Depends who's doing the selling, I'm sure I've heard of a vengeful GOD we have to be afraid of.
One of our major Christian religions relies heavily on fear to keep the congregation in check.

Almost every culture has defined GOD in different ways, there's also been multiple GODS, some of whom certainly weren't benign.

As we're talking about luck, you have to consider the fatalist religions, reincarnation and astrology.

remery said..
I went to the casino with a friend. Her strategy was to look for roulette wheels that had at least five red or black in a row. She would bet a small amount on the alternative colour. I tried to explain to her that each spin of the wheel was a separate event not influenced by previous spins. She wouldn't listen to me and at the end of the night, my money was safely unchanged in my wallet and she was $250 richer.

Hmmm... this area confuses me. I accept that per roll it is almost a 50% chance, but is it also over the long run, even though clearly the table has no memory?

Sure, each time is there a 50% chance of either. But over the long run shouldn't the average tend towards 50% as well?

FormulaNova said..

Hmmm... this area confuses me. I accept that per roll it is almost a 50% chance, but is it also over the long run, even though clearly the table has no memory?

Sure, each time is there a 50% chance of either. But over the long run shouldn't the average tend towards 50% as well?

It doesn't matter how many heads a thrown in a row, the next one is always 50:50 (unless there is a bias in the coin or the tossing).

^^ like everything, all depends how you look at it.

Chance of throwing 8 heads in a row is the same as the chance of throwing any other single combination.

If you throw seven heads the chance of throwing 8 or not is then 50/50, when considered after the seventh.

But chance of throwing 8 heads in a row versus not throwing 8 heads in a row is very much weighted towards the not side. Because you are then comparing one combination against every other.

So the chance of any individual throw being heads or tails might be 50%, but if it has been 6 tails in a row and you have not placed a bet on any of the 6, yet you bet heads in the next six, then across the twelve throws you have better odds than somebody who bet all twelve, provided you make that comparrison at the right time during the throwing event.

The real issue here though is that if remery took a lady to the casino, didn't open his wallet and she had to use her own money to have a fun little flutter, I'd very much doubt he got lucky.

FormulaNova said..
This is where I didn't pay enough attention to probability in maths class, but surely the odds of 7 heads in a row is better/higher than 8 heads in a row when flipping a coin. So you would argue that the trend is towards an even probability, but again the coin has no memory and should have no bias.

That's why I think the main difference between you and a computer is....

I only have to punch information into a computer once.

This is a well-known and amusing probablity exercise that was the basis of a game show. I edited it so its not so obvious what the game show was, Its more fun to think about rather than Google the answer.The problem is a famous, seemingly paradoxical problem in conditional probability and reasoning using Bayes' theorem. Information affects your decision that at first glance seems as though it shouldn't.

In the problem, you are on a game show, being asked to choose between three doors. Behind each door, there is either a quiver of slalom sails or a pig. You choose a door. The host picks one of the other doors, which he knows has a pig behind it, and opens it, showing you the pig. (You know, by the rules of the game, that the host will always reveal a pig). The host then asks whether you would like to switch your choice of door to the other remaining door. Assuming you prefer having soome windsurfing gear more than a pig ... Do you choose to switch or not to switch?

remery said..
This is a well-known and amusing probablity exercise that was the basis of a game show. I edited it so its not so obvious what the game show was, Its more fun to think about rather than Google the answer.The problem is a famous, seemingly paradoxical problem in conditional probability and reasoning using Bayes' theorem. Information affects your decision that at first glance seems as though it shouldn't.

In the problem, you are on a game show, being asked to choose between three doors. Behind each door, there is either a quiver of slalom sails or a pig. You choose a door. The host picks one of the other doors, which he knows has a pig behind it, and opens it, showing you the pig. (You know, by the rules of the game, that the host will always reveal a pig). The host then asks whether you would like to switch your choice of door to the other remaining door. Assuming you prefer having soome windsurfing gear more than a pig ... Do you choose to switch or not to switch?

The Monty Hall problem.

It does make sense when you think it through.

Without checking it again, you are better off changing your choice.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

decrepit said..


Almost every culture has defined GOD in different ways, there's also been multiple GODS, some of whom certainly weren't benign.

"I am that I am"

God is not a being, God is being.