Will house prices crash?

> 10 years ago
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saltiest1
saltiest1
NSW
2575 posts
NSW, 2575 posts
16 Nov 2009 5:35pm
Jimmyz said...

I think I'm going to buy myself a boat to live on... screw the mortgage.


thats what we did and it was the best thing we ever did. in fact we are doing it again soon.
latedropeddy
latedropeddy
VIC
417 posts
VIC, 417 posts
16 Nov 2009 11:30pm
I still have to ask the question... how are they affording the median price?

Eg: median house price @ Melbourne is around $500k at the moment.

Given you have good deposit to avoid mortgage insurance you would need to borrow around $400k.

@6.5% for 30years - $2530 per month
@8.5% for 30years - $3075 per month

Has everyone received a massive pay increase over the last couple of years (and I haven't?) Sure you blokes in WA employed in the resources sector have done pretty well - I may need to join you guys just to get into the housing market and not eat baked beans for dinner 6 nights a week.

...or sell my booty after a sail at st kilda


saltiest1
saltiest1
NSW
2575 posts
NSW, 2575 posts
17 Nov 2009 12:12am
no one HAS to buy a house. in fact if you rent and invest the difference youd pay on a mortgage, at a 8% ( even 6) return average youd be ahead. most of a mortgage repayment is interest for a long time anyway. if i hadnt got in early (1996) there is no way id buy from scratch now. we bought this place in bad way and have been doing it up for the last year. paid 330k all funded by mortgage and thats hard enough. gotta get that boat.
Mark _australia
Mark _australia
WA
23695 posts
WA, 23695 posts
16 Nov 2009 11:16pm
latedropeddy said...

I still have to ask the question... how are they affording the median price?

Eg: median house price @ Melbourne is around $500k at the moment.

Given you have good deposit to avoid mortgage insurance you would need to borrow around $400k.

@6.5% for 30years - $2530 per month
@8.5% for 30years - $3075 per month

Has everyone received a massive pay increase over the last couple of years


eggbl00dy zactly


...or sell my booty after a sail at st kilda



Post a pic and we'll let you know

Marvin
Marvin
WA
725 posts
WA, 725 posts
17 Nov 2009 6:50am
Sorry to be neggative, but... its the magic of compounding, isn't it?

Most people have a home from around the age of 25 - 30 years (after they've foregone some gear !! and saved a deposit). They then have it for 50 years or so.

Inflation runs at 2.5% - that means that in 28 years the property has doubled in value, or effectively, half the mortgage has been paid for gratis. In 50 years its two thirds of the property has been 'paid' gratis. Looking at it another way, in 28 years time, your income has doubled, but the mortgage payments have remained the same. By that time, you will have paid off a 25 year mortgage.

I could go on, but, the bottom line is, its hard to pay the mortgage in the first few years, but then it just gets easier and easier.

And yes you could pay a rent (4% rental yield), but after 28 years you end up with nothing (unless you really do invest that money in the stock market and get at least 6.5%). Or you can buy (at an average 6.5% interest yield), and own your own home. Its a choice.
Leech
Leech
WA
1933 posts
WA, 1933 posts
17 Nov 2009 10:24am
latedropeddy said...

I still have to ask the question... how are they affording the median price?

Eg: median house price @ Melbourne is around $500k at the moment.

Given you have good deposit to avoid mortgage insurance you would need to borrow around $400k.

@6.5% for 30years - $2530 per month
@8.5% for 30years - $3075 per month

Has everyone received a massive pay increase over the last couple of years (and I haven't?) Sure you blokes in WA employed in the resources sector have done pretty well - I may need to join you guys just to get into the housing market and not eat baked beans for dinner 6 nights a week.

...or sell my booty after a sail at st kilda





Previous generation, median mortgage repayments were ~30% of the median income.

Now it's ~30% of the mean household income. Double incomes are the only option in most cases. Kinda sux for those that want to provide the best care for their young children with a stay-home parent - out of the question.

What's the next generation going to do to afford the mortgage? (Three's a crowd)
arancini
arancini
WA
373 posts
WA, 373 posts
17 Nov 2009 11:13pm
reiwa.com.au/?prop_no=7&searchRef=Yangebup&ID=2653759

10 mins from freo $379k

reiwa.com.au/lst/lst-ressale-details.cfm?prop_no=1&searchRef=Armadale&ID=2655746

armadale foot hills $295k

Im not a real estate person or have any interest in the above, I just see options for starters. Our 1st house was a fibro ex homes west house, never liked it much, but had a good time there for 3 years or so.....
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