yeah i'm not a fan of highs, they bring calm conditions. where a low will produce wind regardless.

la nina does increase the chance of cyclones though.

for a cyclone to form they need sea temps over 26.5 deg to feed thundestorms, a SE trade to the south and a NW wind to the north to spin them up and a high in the mid levels to prevent excessive sheer. the first 2 items are more common during la nina years.

the other thing with cyclones is the bigger they are the more inclined they are to travel south towards the poles.

but yes you're right. they can kill themselves off if they sit in one place for too long due to sea surface temp dropping (upwelling).

the other thing interesting is that the MJO is used as a guide to when cyclones are most likely to form in the coral sea.

i used to think that cyclones are usually followed by no wind but these days i'm not so sure that's the case. i guess it depends on how much potential energy is left and whether the trades kick back in or not.

Great topic, I feel like an addicted gambler who is sure he knows the rules of the game but given even the smallest amount of scientific information my theories collapse immediately. Because Tasmania is so small driving 50 to 100 km in any direction gives radically different results for seabreezes and frontal conditions.

The idea that any event has a probability of happening I can understand, but a weather event is the combined result of many other events so a combination of several probabilities....arggg...now my brain hurts.

The other thing I remember reading about a few years ago was the circumpolar current which supposedly promoted the formation of either highs or lows down south depending on what it was doing. I can't remember whether is was direction or speed of rotation, or summat like thart !

I just did some research to remind me about that.
The current moves in a clockwise direction, moving a phenomenal amount of water at a rate of 4 kts. One article said it's like watching the whole volume of Sydney Harbour flow past in 3 secs. It was part of the reason for the Bounty mutiny.
Apparently it has warm and cool patches, and I think it's how they are arranged that promotes either lows or highs. One article said it's though to be more important than El Nino in determining rainfall in southern Oz.
Worth doing some reading about.

panda - positive and negative.

ken, wow, that's a pandoras box you opened there. the circumpolar current is a big deal.

and i'm holding off on the WA stuff as i can't be sure of what i think.