colas said..

Fishdude said..
IMO This was all about China from the get go. This move reminds me of when POTUS Reagan announced the Star Wars program, that pressured and eventually bankrupted the USSR and caused the Berlin Wall to fall.

This is where the Trump administration incompetence shows.

- they tried the tariffs against China in Trump v1 and failed. The insanity is doubling down on something that did not work, and for which China had years to prepare against, seeing how Trump could fold. See this 6 years-old article: "Trump has only one negotiating move: Take an aggressive position, try to deceive others and maybe yourself about your own strength, issue threats you cannot fulfill, and then retreat amid losses if the bluff is called."

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/05/north-korea-resumes-missile-testing-disregarding-trump/589081/

- they applied tariffs on all products, instead of only where China had some questionable practices (mainly state subsidies), cornering China to retaliate, Xi could not be seen to lose face.

- they first attacked all their allies, effectively putting the USA against the world, the opposite of what Reagan did. Trump even mocked Lesotho explicitly and put heavy tariffs on it... but Lesoto is the main producer of Trump textile merchandising!

- they killed the USA credibility by the uncertainty, making Japan - not even China... yet! - sell its US bonds and making Trump capitulate in less than 24 hours.

I agree with you, Trump makes Taiwan invasion more and more probable. Unless like the Ukrainians, the Taiwainese can deal with the less insane in the Trump administration while Trump has lost interest.

Tariffs are now at 30%. Updated as of this morning.

Monday morning:

Small packages from China are still subject to tariffs of 120%, a White House official confirmed Monday - a major blow for U.S. consumers seeking cheap goods from e-commerce retailers like Shein and Temu.
Why it matters: Trump previously ended a loophole that allowed low-value goods into the country tariff-free - and while high retaliatory tariffs on most other Chinese imports were eased, these levies appear to be the new normal.
Driving the news: The Trump administration announced a temporary trade deal Monday that significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145% for the next 90 days.
Left out of that deal: the 120% tariff rate on shipments valued at less than $800, or a flat $100 fee per postal item, a White House official tells Axios.
Starting June 1, the flat fee will increase to $200.

Monday night:

Then Monday night, the White House released the text of an executive order cutting the tariff rate to 54%, while still maintaining the $100 fee option. -- Axios

Now picture an US importer having to buy goods that will take weeks to arrive, absolutely not knowing what will be the "tariff roulette" he will have to pay on arrival...

And you understand why the US ports are emptying.
edition.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/zero-ships-china-trade-ports-pandemic

someone's been doing pint skulls of the mainstream media cool aid..

colas said..

jdfoils said..
Think of the companies that just restocked at the higher rates

I don't think anyone has restocked at the higher rates. No business can afford it.

I know of at least one windsports company that restocked (and increased prices). It was either that, or have nothing to sell as inventory was critically low to non existent (they already lost at that game during covid).... less than a week after receiving the tariff went down.

For the US customers: If you had to pay tariffs, contact your lawyer...

"Anybody that has had to pay tariffs so far will be able to get them refunded" (if no stay is granted during appeal). And "deadlines are strict".

Copying here in case it is censored by Musk:

"[Special Situations ](x.com/SpecialSitsNews)?? Research Newsletter (Jay) [@SpecialSitsNews](x.com/SpecialSitsNews)

Tariff Refunds? What a mess... The court's decision to vacate and permanently enjoin the challenged tariffs (e.g., 10% universal tariffs, 25% on Canada and Mexico, 20% on China) implies that businesses and entities that paid these duties may be eligible to seek refunds. Law professor Ilya Somin, involved in one of the cases, stated, "Anybody that has had to pay tariffs so far will be able to get them refunded," suggesting a legal basis for reimbursement.

Refunds are not automatic. Companies and importers typically must file claims or protests with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to recover duties paid. Precedents, such as refunds for Section 301 tariffs ruled unlawful in prior cases, show this can be done via mechanisms like Post Summary Corrections or formal protests, but deadlines are strict and the process can be slow due to bureaucratic procedures.

The ruling applies to tariffs collected under IEEPA, including the 10% global tariffs from April 5, 2025, and specific levies on China, Mexico, and Canada tied to drug trafficking and trade deficits. Estimates suggest around $10 billion in duties, including $3.5 billion to China, could be subject to refund claims, though exact amounts depend on what was collected before the ruling.

The Trump administration filed a notice of appeal shortly after the May 28, 2025, ruling, seeking review by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. If a stay is granted, the tariffs could remain in effect during the appeal, delaying or potentially blocking refunds. Without a stay, the court's injunction holds, and refunds may proceed for duties already paid."


x.com/SpecialSitsNews/status/1927923643402617326

More insanity. Hopefully temporary, but I guess we are going to see weirder and weirder **, as the orange moron brain is turning to sewage at a visible rate, and his court is terrified of him.

"As national postal services around the world are affected by the new U.S. customs policy, several countries have taken similar steps. China and Hong Kong have already suspended some postal services, with Thailand, Singapore, France, Switzerland, Denmark and Belgium following suit."

www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/society/20250822/foreign-residents-face-disruptions-as-express-mail-stopped-under-new-us-rules

Yep. got this email from AusPost this morning
Nothing will post to the US after today

view.email.auspost.com.au/?qs=6bf7cf3c0a43a87bb12b2ae6753735a09cb385530ddc24a314a64af86db1945bb5ee5a689458647cc164b4729a3cf3175eef20227a07357297f15b0c1d0666e0066ee0ef557a344203792ce77a27d52b08edc17faf5dd1a89bc3f54db3849061

It's just going to hurt anyone living in the US, the rest of the world will continue as usual. I expect a backflip in the coming days as the locals realise what these tariffs are going to cost them.

US trade deals are "not worth the paper it is written on".... You don't say.

www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/13/one-europe-biggest-farm-machinery-firms-halts-us-exports-hidden-tariffs-krone

"One of Europe's biggest farm machinery companies, Krone, has been forced to pause exports of large equipment to the US because of "alarming" and little-known new tariffs that are hitting hundreds of products from knitting needles and hair dryers to combine harvesters.

Krone and the construction company Liebherr in Germany have to provide an unprecedented level of detail to customs border authorities certifying the origin, weight and value of any steel in their products right down to nuts and bolts.

"You have to get paperwork from the supplier to the supplier to the supplier. That is pretty much impossible,"

Added to that nobody could tell us what to do. Did the tariffs depend on weight, origin, or the price of raw steel?

this separate list of 407 products is a rolling nightmare for exporters as the US has also set new rules allowing it to be changed several times a year.

after weeks of talking to lawyers on both sides of the Atlantic and officials in the US, he is still not confident he knows what paperwork US customs authorities need.?

Plus, of course, combine this with the US Idiocracy factor(*):

?"Many of [US customers] are surprised. When they saw Mr Trump talk about tariffs, they got the impression that the foreign companies are paying these tariffs, but what they now figure out is that it is the customer who pays.?

And, since time is money, all these bureaucratic insanity will result in added cost to the customer.

(*) On the US Idiocracy factor, this video (by an US Citizen) is so telling:

ZeroVix said..
Today imports under HS Code 9506.29.0080 that originate (made) in the EU have a tariff in the USA of 15%. Period.

You did not read any of the cited reports, did you?

Have you ever went to US governement site and actually looked at the code detailing the various rates for a myriad of different product categories?
Or at least just trade organizations summaries such as: taxpolicycenter.org/features/tracking-trump-tariffs

Or did you hear the "15%" figure on TV once and ossified this thought in your brain, and derived ideological conclusions without bothering to check the reality?


For instance, last week the mad king can decide at any time to impose an extra 92% tariff depending on who spoke to him last. "It is very harmful and nobody imagined that a situation like this could arise, especially after Europe had reached the agreement on 15%"

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/09/a-fatal-blow-italian-producers-fear-effects-of-trumps-war-against-pasta

So, you are not immune to have the custom office deciding next week to apply specific tariffs to the metal bolts in foils, just like they did with farm machines.

Wow !

Tariff refunds are now looking likely ?

I feel sorry for everyone in the US having to work through this mess....