Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds: Northwest to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots tending south to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots in the morning then tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell: Easterly about 1 metre.
Weather: The chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon or evening.
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15-25kt!!! The [deleted] it's completely calm!

They couldn't predict tomorrow's Tuesday!

More than $251.126 million of OUR tax money a year on these idiots!

www.bom.gov.au/inside/eiab/reports/ar09-10/Financial-resources-man.pdf

I think the BOM covers themselves by predicting the strongest wind strength possible on the day of the prediction. The actual strength is usually a lot less. The BOM does this so they can't be blamed if someone does something like goes to sea in their 2.8m tinny with a 2hp outboard and then get blown onto the rocks or out to NZ when the wind comes in stronger than forecast.

People like to blame someone for their mistakes besides themselves.


Best way to predict winds is to look at the pressure charts and to look out the window.

I think seabreeze uses some guy who sticks his head out the window (sometimes).... you know when it's blowing 18kt and seabreeze is predicting 10kt, then it suddenly changes.

But the BoM are useless even with their vague non specific forecasts... I want my money back.

Imagine how many web cams + weather stations we could have for $260 million a year.

Scotty88 said...

And they attempt to predict the weather for 2050

Wet and dry

Zuke said...

doggie said...

Scotty88 said...

And they attempt to predict the weather for 2050

Wet and dry

With the chance of wind.

Variable winds, chance of rain and possible thunder storms.
Question: What's the difference between 'mostly sunny' & 'partly cloudy' ?
Answer: nothing, the bom uses the same symbol.

laurie said...



Sounds like someones upset.

Weather forecasting is complex. Like trying to predict which way a candle flame will flicker, when all of a sudden somebody opens a door.

As far as I'm aware, the BoM don't "cover" themselves from mistakes, they are all good people doing the best they can with what they have.

I've met quite a few of the crew there, and have been impressed with their energy & passion about weather.

People have an expectation these days that weather forecasts should be "100% correct" and with temperatures, it's pretty spot on.

Wind can be very localised, just take Rottnest -vs- Leighton. Or even Leighton -vs- scarbourough. More advanced models are being developed all the time.

Can I suggest this article, which talks about the history of weather discovery?

www.seabreeze.com.au/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx

"It's only in the last 50 years of human existance that weather forecasting has been of any sound accuracy at all." (It's wasn't that long since weather forecasts were based around such things as granddads bunion hurting, which would indicated an incoming storm!)

Enjoy...

Turn it up Laurie. Don't expect them to be '100 % correct' - it's just when they are 100% wrong.

FlySurfer said...

Yup, I've been real upset ... I've gone home so many times to get my gear, all for nothing, it's not funny any more, and I can smell Autumn in the air, AND we've had no where near enough wind this year (the coldest & wettest since the Paleolithic).

I've been to the US and seen some of their forecasts, and it's sure a lot better than the "Chance of a Shower" in a huge area we get.

I think the BoM need to be a bit more sophisticated with their predictions and their presentation... they could give us nice computer models of the projected wind, cloud, development areas, and times!

if they could predict it better ,that would make this season better how?????

I had a really interesting chat with one of the meteorologists.

I sent them feedback on the way they present their forecasts on their website. Not only did they email me back, they also telephoned - fantastic customer service.

One of my concerns was that they don't give any indication of the certainty of their forecasts. There are times when the weather is pretty predictable, other times when it is unstable. Their models will tell them something like "80% chance of 15-20 knots; this will occur if the clouds break up and the moon is in Aries or whatever"

From our perspective, as sophisticated users of weather forecasting services, we would love that information. I asked him whether standrad deviations to windstrength forecasts would be avaqilable. He was quite open about the knowledge level of the average punter, and could foresee all sorts of problems giving out that info.

I then told him that it is not just the absolute wind strength that matters for kiting, but the variability. He took me through the aeronautical weather forecasting part of the site. In essence, if the wind strength/direction is significantly different at different altitudes (gradient wind only, not seabreeze), you can anticipate a gusty day.

I came away stoked that our meteorologists not only know what their doing but are keen to share their knowledge. Disappointed that standard deviations etc aren't going to be published, but what can you do?

SandS said...

You blokes are grizzling about nothing !!

The BOM are pretty much spot on with their predictions and models .

I agree for SE Qld it's really very accurate. I've seen it predict a southerly coming in to within 15 minutes. A lot of times.

I'm going to say it's 90%+ accurate for us. And I only use this thing:
www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml