Climate Change Stuff

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ADS
ADS
WA
365 posts
ADS ADS
WA, 365 posts
6 Nov 2009 10:24am
Was emailed this link to a Sydney radio station interview yesterday:
http://www.2gb.com.au/index2.php?option=com_newsmanager&task=view&id=4998
Some concerning points are raised.
I think we need a national debate on this topic.
Ads72
Ads72
NSW
362 posts
NSW, 362 posts
6 Nov 2009 3:11pm
ADS said...

Was emailed this link to a Sydney radio station interview yesterday:
http://www.2gb.com.au/index2.php?option=com_newsmanager&task=view&id=4998
Some concerning points are raised.
I think we need a national debate on this topic.

What a load of absolute rot! We don't need a debate on bloody Alan Jones terms. Right wing sceptics like this add absolutely nothing to the debate what so ever.
Trant
Trant
NSW
601 posts
NSW, 601 posts
6 Nov 2009 4:53pm
I'm not sure how many times I've posted this link to various sceptics over the years, but here's a "Guide for the Perplexed" published by New Scientist, a peer reviewed science magazine.

www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462-climate-change-a-guide-for-the-perplexed/

Quote from the article
"In January 2009, a poll of 3146 earth scientists found that 82% answered yes to the question: "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?". Of the 77 climatologists actively engaged in research, 75 answered yes (97.4%).

The scientists most likely to answer no were petroleum geologists and meteorologists."

btw, I believe Lindzens' experiment was done around 2000, another team performed the same experiment with different tools and found a different result.
pweedas
pweedas
WA
4642 posts
WA, 4642 posts
6 Nov 2009 2:50pm
Numbers 'for' or 'against' a point of view never made it right or wrong. And that's the whole problem with the present debate on climate change. It has become an argument with more similarities to a religious debate than a scientific debate.

If you had taken it on the numbers then the earth is the centre of the universe. That point was clearly and definitely decided over 300 years ago. It was so definitely decided that anyone who disagreed and publicly said so, ran the risk of being burned at the stake. And some did, and consequently were.
It took 300 years for the authorative body who claimed the earth was the centre of the universe to publicly admit that they were WRONG! They had to really. With the advent of 20th century science it became obvious to everyone except the most diehard adherents of 'infallible decrees' that nothing much at all revolved around our little rock.

If just one person can put up a clear and reasonable argument that humans are NOT the major cause of the present warming trend then that has to be listened to and disputed on a scientific basis. And that basis cannot be that more people agree with this side than that side. That just proves that they have had to resort to a religious debate because their science is not altogether backing them up.

The change of public perception that the earth was NOT the centre of the universe was started by only a very few people. And there was no money in it for them. And they were right and EVERYONE ELSE was WRONG! They made their point on a scientific basis. Their oponents made their point on a religious basis.
The matter of whether the earth was the centre of the universe had no relevance to the economic welfare of the people. The matter of CO2 "polution" does. The fact that it is called "polution" is a clear sign that logic is not the driving factor of the argument. Carbon is 'polution' to carbon based lifeforms (i.e. us ) in the same way that gold dust would be a polution to your bank acount.

All this talk of "carbon trading" and "carbon credits" taints the whole debate and there is no doubt that even if humans have no effect at all on the climate, there are many who would still push strongly for the present path of carbon trading to continue.
Trant
Trant
NSW
601 posts
NSW, 601 posts
6 Nov 2009 10:30pm
That's the point, it's not a popularity contest and the science behind it is both hard to understand and quite complicated, despite the simplistic models touted about. Hence people are employed to do nothing BUT look at the climate and the way it is changing, so we need to listen to THEIR opinions.

If my doctor told me that I had cancer but a radio personality said that I didn't, I would probably listen to the doctor.
If nine out of ten doctors told me I had cancer, I wouldn't give a f*ck how many radio personalities, politicians or economists told me that I didn't. Just because it's expensive to treat, doesn't mean that the cancer isn't there.

We rely on people who are experts in the field to tell us what is happening. 75 out of 77 Climatologists have, it is happening and debating about how much money it will cost and who gets the money doesn't really change anything.
Have a look at the article I posted if you want to look at some of the ideas behind climate change, read some peer reviewed science articles rather than listening to "personalities" about it (and that includes Al Gore)

The debate should be what are we going to do about it, not whether it is happening.


Trant
Trant
NSW
601 posts
NSW, 601 posts
6 Nov 2009 10:32pm
p.s. Yes Carbon trading is ****, but it doesn't mean that the problem doesn't exist.
p.p.s. Don't get me started on Carbon offsetting either.
Test pilot 1
Test pilot 1
WA
1430 posts
WA, 1430 posts
6 Nov 2009 8:52pm
i hard on the wahless recntly that carbon was worth something lik $40.00 a kilo around ten years ago and now about $0.10. Do you suppose if i bought a few million tons of the stuff, would the price go up and then i could slowly sell it back for a profit? Aternatively if carbon sequestration becomes a good tax dodge could i call building with carbon fibre, sequestration and make landyachts etc and claim a tax credit?
cisco
cisco
QLD
12365 posts
QLD, 12365 posts
6 Nov 2009 11:17pm
Climate change is a result of sun spot activity NOT human activity.

I dare anyone to show conclusive proof to the contrary.

If an untruth (lie) is repeated often enough, people eventually accept it as truth.
mineral1
mineral1
WA
4564 posts
WA, 4564 posts
6 Nov 2009 9:41pm
cisco said...

Climate change is a result of sun spot activity NOT human activity.

I dare anyone to show conclusive proof to the contrary.

If an untruth (lie) is repeated often enough, people eventually accept it as truth.


Well said

Here is another small anomaly.
What happened to the catch phrase "Global Warming" from all the media outlets. We didn't by chance find out that this was proving to be a bit of a non event did we? It sort of just stopped being used, funny that.[}:)]
So lets come up with a new catch phrase. I know lets call it "Climate Change" there yar that done it. Get a few other million suckers roped in to some other dollar driven malarkey

I am all for keeping things clean neat and tidy, and it cant hurt to reduce any impact human activity is placing on our environment, like rainforest destruction and so on. But the rest of the hyped up dribble being portrayed via media and a few well healed or potential well healed nobs...... what a load of horse ****z
Trant
Trant
NSW
601 posts
NSW, 601 posts
7 Nov 2009 1:50am
cisco said...

Climate change is a result of sun spot activity NOT human activity.

I dare anyone to show conclusive proof to the contrary.

If an untruth (lie) is repeated often enough, people eventually accept it as truth.


Here you go, Sun Spot activity vs Global Temp. Data from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. Notice the complete lack of correlation.



Kind or ironic that last sentence of yours
paddymac
paddymac
WA
943 posts
WA, 943 posts
6 Nov 2009 11:40pm
cisco said...

Climate change is a result of sun spot activity NOT human activity.

I dare anyone to show conclusive proof to the contrary.

If an untruth (lie) is repeated often enough, people eventually accept it as truth.


Not quite how science works but I like the addition of the dare to spice things up.

Science works more like this - given two competing theories A and B the choices are to discredit one of the theories by showing that that the evidence presented is false OR show that the evidence for one theory is more significant, more sound than the other.

What you should avoid doing is to proposing a theory that has limited or no evidence to support it and "daring" the proponents of a competing theory that has a large, credible body of evidence that supports it to disprove your theory.
cisco
cisco
QLD
12365 posts
QLD, 12365 posts
7 Nov 2009 2:07pm
I guess you have me there Trant. There is some correlation though however disproportionate. Temperatures and sunspot activity are both rising.

paddymac. I agree with what you say but what you are talking about is "Theory" just like evolution which is still Darwin's theory. It has not been proven and so therefore is not fact like many people believe.

The same is true with Global Warming/Climate Change. It has been repated so often that many people have accepted it as fact.

Another theory worthy of consideration is that put forward by Immanuel Velikovsky in his books Worlds in Collision and Earth in Upheaval, published by Abacus.

Google his name to get some idea of it but better if you can get hold of the books which I believe are still available. They really put a different slant on things. His theory is based on facts.

The Wongs, Gawwets and Wudds of the world do not give us facts. They just ripp us off.
Cheers Cisco
ginger pom
ginger pom
VIC
1746 posts
VIC, 1746 posts
7 Nov 2009 3:58pm
The intellectual debate - where both sides should be read and circulated widely to help scientists develop their theories

The PR game - where most people read 3 or at most 6 sentences on global warming that are thrust in front of them by whoever wants to sell newspapers, petrol, Toyota Prius, eggs or solar panels, in between an article on posh spice and rugby league players in hotel rooms...

Free speech definitely applies to the first category...

It also applies to the second, but with a lack of proper review and diligent readers, we reserve the right to strike down crude summaries as irresponsible and wrong eg sun spots cause global warming...
Mark _australia
Mark _australia
WA
23684 posts
WA, 23684 posts
7 Nov 2009 1:50pm
I love the way the unintelligent blonde fluff on the news recently said we have had the hottest October day since 1960something (her emphasis on those words)

Of course they then look stern and mention global warming / climate change

Hang on.... so we actually had a hotter October day in the 60's? Hmmmm........

Regardless of which camp you're in, the most infuriating part is always the media.
petermac33
petermac33
WA
6415 posts
WA, 6415 posts
7 Nov 2009 3:16pm
here is a trailer of The Great Global Warming Swindle.











busterwa
busterwa
3782 posts
3782 posts
7 Nov 2009 4:04pm
the reckon climate change is because our solar system is flattening out !!!
dont worry were all going to die in 2012 when our milky way colides with plannet boobies X
undefined Ref ... utube


theDoctor
theDoctor
NSW
5786 posts
NSW, 5786 posts
8 Nov 2009 12:04am


paddymac
paddymac
WA
943 posts
WA, 943 posts
7 Nov 2009 9:33pm
cisco said...
paddymac. I agree with what you say but what you are talking about is "Theory" just like evolution which is still Darwin's theory. It has not been proven and so therefore is not fact like many people believe.

That's right, it's not a fact. It's a theory that is will supported by a growing body of evidence. That evidence has been gathered through experimentation. The experiments must be repeatable so the others can repeat and verify. That's the scientific method. Scientists are a bunch of skeptics that enjoy testing their colleague's assertions. That's called peer review.


The same is true with Global Warming/Climate Change. It has been repated so often that many people have accepted it as fact.

Another theory worthy of consideration is that put forward by Immanuel Velikovsky in his books Worlds in Collision and Earth in Upheaval, published by Abacus.

Google his name to get some idea of it but better if you can get hold of the books which I believe are still available. They really put a different slant on things. His theory is based on facts.


I did, it didn't.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immanuel_Velikovsky

"His books use comparative mythology and ancient literary sources (including the Bible) to argue that Earth has suffered catastrophic close-contacts with other planets..."

"In general, Velikovsky's theories have been vigorously rejected or ignored by the academic community."

That doesn't sound like a theory based on facts.

The Wongs, Gawwets and Wudds of the world do not give us facts.


Most politicians now accept Climate Change given the growing body of credible evidence. How to address Climate Change presents them with an enormous challenge, not the least of which is losing the vote of people that share your opinion. But at least they are having a crack at it and proposing solutions.
cisco
cisco
QLD
12365 posts
QLD, 12365 posts
8 Nov 2009 4:22am
paddymac said...

I did, it didn't.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immanuel_Velikovsky

"His books use comparative mythology and ancient literary sources (including the Bible) to argue that Earth has suffered catastrophic close-contacts with other planets..."

"In general, Velikovsky's theories have been vigorously rejected or ignored by the academic community."

That doesn't sound like a theory based on facts.

Most politicians now accept Climate Change given the growing body of credible evidence. How to address Climate Change presents them with an enormous challenge, not the least of which is losing the vote of people that share your opinion. But at least they are having a crack at it and proposing solutions.


Taxing people out of existence will have no effect on the climate.

Worlds in Collision is based on comparisons of ancient writings.

Earth in Upheaval is based on geological and other physical evidence eg his theory is the most plausible explanation of how the mammoths in Siberia came to be snap frozen and the plant matter found in their mouths is from species that only grow in temperate climates. Also marine fossils found on the Himalayas.

"In general, Velikovsky's theories have been vigorously rejected or ignored by the academic community."

This is only intellectual "tarring and feathering" and "mob mentality" from those who see their recearch funding threatened if his theory gains popular acceptance.

Read the books to really know what he has said. There is I am told another book "Velikovsky Revisited" written by others that confirms much of what he said. Cheers Cisco

Bluedog76
Bluedog76
249 posts
249 posts
8 Nov 2009 5:35am
Trant said...

cisco said...

Climate change is a result of sun spot activity NOT human activity.

I dare anyone to show conclusive proof to the contrary.

If an untruth (lie) is repeated often enough, people eventually accept it as truth.


Here you go, Sun Spot activity vs Global Temp. Data from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. Notice the complete lack of correlation.



Kind or ironic that last sentence of yours



Which ever way you go.........Is this graph relevant? It shows temp over 120 years. 120 YEARS............out of 4.54 billion.

Go back over 1000 years....also not a releveant time period in the bigger scheme of things but the temp had dropped 1 degree to a small ice age before climbing again - what did humans do to cause this, if we can make the temp rise surely we can make it fall!!

Either way, I think we should pollute and use less which dispite the momentum to a greener future I don't see anywhere......here my product is twice as green, now you can buy 4 is closer to the present day to me.
choco
choco
SA
4186 posts
SA, 4186 posts
8 Nov 2009 10:02am
Everyone in the world should buy an Iced Tea and then we all drink it at the same time......
Ian K
Ian K
WA
4169 posts
WA, 4169 posts
8 Nov 2009 7:40am
Can anybody think of a dynamic system that doesn't oscillate?? Flags flutter, fins whistle, roads corrugate, skirts go up and down.

No doubt we're doing enough to make a difference, like putting a bit of duck tape on a flag - It'll change the way it flutters but there's a fair chance it will still work OK? Or maybe only half a chance it'll work OK? A bit of a guess, the only way to really know is to put it up the flag pole again.

The next 20 years will be interesting.


Trant
Trant
NSW
601 posts
NSW, 601 posts
8 Nov 2009 11:03am
I agree with what you say but what you are talking about is "Theory" just like evolution which is still Darwin's theory. It has not been proven and so therefore is not fact like many people believe.


Quickly
There are no "facts" in science and nothing is even proven beyond doubt. There are hypothesis, theories and laws.
"Theories" and "laws" are both said to be beyond doubt until evidence surfaces to prove to the contrary.
A hypothesis is an educated guess.

The "Law" of gravity can also be expressed as the "Theory" of gravity.

Thus, the "Theory of Evolution" is about as strong as it gets for science. It can not be said to be "more" proven and it will never get to the point where it is "proven".

Trant
Trant
NSW
601 posts
NSW, 601 posts
8 Nov 2009 11:11am
Ian K said...

Can anybody think of a dynamic system that doesn't oscillate?? Flags flutter, fins whistle, roads corrugate, skirts go up and down.

No doubt we're doing enough to make a difference, like putting a bit of duck tape on a flag


It's a fair point, everyone knows that the climate has changed in the past without us anyway. What we're doing is waving the flag pole making the flag oscillate more, making things worse. I believe that previously the temperature has never changed this rapidly.

Previous climate changes have led to mass level extinctions in the past so it's probably not a good thing if we help another one come along!
maxm
maxm
NSW
864 posts
NSW, 864 posts
8 Nov 2009 12:17pm
Cisco is both right and wrong - sunspot activity goes through a regular cycle called the Maunder cycle which lasts about 11 years. We went through the Maunder minimum recently so yes, sunspot activity is now increasing but it'll decrease again in a few years when the cycle hits maximum. There has been some talk of a larger cycle on top of that with a longer period but we just don't have enough data to really flesh out whether it exists 'cause we just haven't been looking at the Sun long enough to collect the info.

Is climate change due to solar activity? Probably yes to some extent because Mars is also thought to be going through some global warming of its own. Humans definitely have nothing to do with that one! But really, it isn't understood how much and anyway, we're still learning just how the Earth and Sun are tied together. Eg just this past couple of weeks there was a paper released showing that the solar wind is much more complex than was thought to be the case previously. What that means for the Earth is anyone's guess.

But really, arguing about the cause of climate change is like arguing about how many angels fit on the head of a pin. A pointless argument. Clearly, whatever geological record we look at shows that the Earth's climate is always changing. It has previously been warmer and colder than it is now. Even if there were no humans then the climate would still change. So even if we clean up our act completely and cause zero pollution, still the climate will change.

So the debate should stop fussing over whether we're causing it or not and start focussing on the real question - what do we do about it?

Here endeth the rant.

PS I think some in the science community are already trying to have that debate but the media, as always, is slow on the uptake. There's more papers to be sold with doom and gloom headlines.
theDoctor
theDoctor
NSW
5786 posts
NSW, 5786 posts
8 Nov 2009 1:40pm

www.mauricecotterell.com


all questions will be answered


the guys a frikken genius

Roar
Roar
NSW
471 posts
NSW, 471 posts
8 Nov 2009 6:17pm
The true irony of the whole climate change argument is that the best way to stop human interference would be to stop having babies and reduce the human population. Of course in 100 years or so with no births the human race will be wiped out and then there would really be no point in saving the planet anyway :)

I love the way people want to "save the earth for future generations" when the mere act of creating future generations is making it unihabitable that much faster.

Do you really care if humans are still around in another 500 years? not like you gonna live to see it!


Mobydisc
Mobydisc
NSW
9029 posts
NSW, 9029 posts
8 Nov 2009 6:31pm
On that line of thought isn't there something contradictory when in one week KRUDD welcomes Australia's population doubling in the next 40 years, then the next week he laments the climate change sceptics ransoming future generation's on the alter of greed and ignorance?

Doesn't take Einstein to work out more people means more consumption and more pollution. Unless our society and economy is radically altered and we revert to some sort of pre or post industrial way of existance then more people must mean more pollution. As technology improves humans are better able to exploit and destroy the environment. Combined with increased numbers means there is more need to exploit and destroy.

50 years ago a household was lucky to have a few electric lights, a fridge and a radio. Now we have all sorts of gadgets that need electricity.

In relation to climate change. The geological evidence indicates that Earth's climate changes regulary. Similarly sea levels regulary change. Human history has recorded changes in climate that predate the possibility of humans affecting climate. For example the Norse grew grapes for wine in modern day Canada and wheat in Greenland. The Romans grew grapes in modern day northern England.

Clearly humanity is greatly affecting local and global environments. The question is whether the idea of carbon taxes are going to anything besides taxing the average person, transferring billions to the biggest polluters and earning brokers big fat bonuses.
morph89
morph89
SA
54 posts
SA, 54 posts
8 Nov 2009 6:18pm
A bloke called Ian Plimer published a book earlier this year called "Heaven and Earth" about the idea of global warming filling the spiritual void left in the western world. He s a lecture at my uni and its pretty interesting to hear his ideas about global warming from a geologists point.
Bluedog76
Bluedog76
249 posts
249 posts
8 Nov 2009 4:32pm
I just hope that i can claim carbon credits when I buy carbon windsurfing gear as I am locking up that nasty carbon in my masts, booms and boards etc from the atmosphere.

theDoctor
theDoctor
NSW
5786 posts
NSW, 5786 posts
8 Nov 2009 9:42pm
i heard an interesting theory in an interview today... we are carbon based lifeforms, does that mean, as responsible for carbon emmissions we can be traded by our governments or those we owe financial debts too, as carbon offsets.

effectively being sold as slaves

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