As you've probably seen on the media, bushfires have recently turned the South Coast of NSW into a fiery hell. Some of your favourite destinations for kiting, surfing, windsurfing and just getting away from the city for some peace amongst our beautiful natural environment have been burnt beyond recognition. So far a number of lives have been lost devastating families in the region 
Hundreds of houses are gone, power lines litter the roads meaning no power, with minimal fuel, food, communications and other services we take for granted.
I live in the Jervis Bay region of the NSW South Coast and we have been fortunate, with some earlier fires and fortuitous wind changes, protecting us from the disaster further south. We can see the fires across the waters of St Georges Basin and backburns have been made from the boundary of some of our villages further protecting us. We have full access to the Princes Highway and no loss of services.
The fires aren't out so we're not out of the woods yet but it's getting to the point where there's not much left to burn.
We can go out kitesurfing, windsurfing etc here and enjoy the north easters which turn to dry, fire feeding north westers a few km inland and further south, fuelling this current disaster. It's surreal to look back from the water and see so much of the country enveloped in an endless cloud of smoke.
This weekend is forecast to have catastrophic fire weather conditions, so lets hope the great work the Regional Fire Service has done gives us some respite. Currently there are convoys of cars travelling north on the few open roads as the emergency services try and empty the region.
Unfortunately after the fires burn out, (as it doesn't look like any rain is forecast in the near future), the disaster will roll on. As well as all the buildings which have been lost, business have also been lost and the South Coast economy which is so dependent on tourism has been decimated. Rebuilding a region which extends hundreds of km from Nowra to the Victorian border will be an unprecedented challenge. Those of us who live on the South Coast would value any support that can be given once the fire threat is over. Once services have been restored, many unburnt destinations will be open for business and need your support. Visit and stay in local accommodation, eat in restaurants & cafes, take cruises, buy from South Coast shops, SUP, surf & kite, bushwalk in the National Parks and do all the great things the South Coast offers.
For my friends further South, take care and I hope things get better soon. My thoughts and those of many others are with you.
Looks absolutely terrible over there. I hope all the 'breezers make it through OK. I can't even imagine how terrifying it would be.
The only positive has been seeing ScoMo getting abuse hurled at him yesterday - whanker should have also had a flaming log thrown at his face though
My daughter left Burrill Lake just after 5am this morning. Arrived at Ulludulla around 7am. 5km in just under 2 hours. She was being passed by people on foot and apparently many had slept by the road overnight.
Dies Berri have a bypass yet? The tailback from the main street used to wind back half way to Nowra on long weekends but I can't imagine the gridlock there now.
Hope all are safe
Berri does have a bypass but there are roadworks almost all the way from Nowra to the bypass.
Select to expand quotejapie said..
Berri does have a bypass but there are roadworks almost all the way from Nowra to the bypass.
The funny thing is that you could make that statement any day of the year and you'd always be correct.
Select to expand quoteHarrow said..japie said..
Berri does have a bypass but there are roadworks almost all the way from Nowra to the bypass.
The funny thing is that you could make that statement any day of the year and you'd always be correct.
I drove from Sydney to Sanctuary Point on Boxing day, and as far as I can tell the roadworks is mostly complete, up until you get just before Nowra. The rest is a pure dream compared to driving down there years ago!
Despite all the signs warning of backburning operations south of Nowra, they appeared to be just beyond the turnoff to Sanctuary Point.
Berry has the bypass completed 100% I am pretty sure, and lots much better for it.
Would it be a crazy idea to work out what the safe perimeter is that houses need, clear that area, and then just let bush fires do their thing like they have for millennia?
Select to expand quoteHarrow said..
Would it be a crazy idea to work out what the safe perimeter is that houses need, clear that area, and then just let bush fires do their thing like they have for millennia?
I don't think its as simple as that. People like living near the bush and normally like having trees around.
When I was down at Sanctuary Point, another sailor there was telling us that he was getting embers from a fire a distance away. How far do you need to be from a fire before an ember can get to your house. A long way by the sounds of it.
It really sounds like this season is worse because of almost no rainfall over a sustained period, so that normal areas that may not burn or wouldn't burn vigorously, are burning easily.
I live a km or two from the national park, but in normal suburbia. Potentially emebers could strike here, so how would you prevent that? Its very unlikely, but it could happen in the wrong conditions.
Select to expand quoteHarrow said..
Would it be a crazy idea to work out what the safe perimeter is that houses need, clear that area, and then just let bush fires do their thing like they have for millennia?
A bit crazy. Embers can travel a long distance to ignite a house. If no one is there to extinguish it the house will go. You can clear the surface fuel from around a house ( no need to chop the trees, just the twigs and leaves they drop ) such that it is safe enough for a person to stay and defend. There has been more emphasis on evacuation since the Black Saturday fires 2009 where there were 180 fatalities. The fire tornadoes that upturned the tankers a few days ago will destroy a house . Fire tornadoes are sporadic but are a risk for someone sheltering from the worst of the fire front in a house, with plans to get out and save the house once the front has passed.
That's probably one of the reasons the "Be prepared and stay or go early " advice shifted to early evacuation. More houses are lost but possibly casualties have been reduced. Last minute evacuation along smoky roads is very risky.
I'm living in the bush on hundreds of acres near huskisson. Wishing all around my area and the areas all through the south, affected by the fires good luck for tomorrow ??
Select to expand quoteIan K said..
You can clear the surface fuel from around a house ( no need to chop the trees, just the twigs and leaves they drop ) such that it is safe enough for a person to stay and defend.
With the intensity of the temperature and wind I have seen in the Adelaide Hills this season, you can throw everything you previously assumed out of the window IMO. My parents have gums around their house. They need to **** them off. Period.
Select to expand quoteIan K said..Harrow said..
Would it be a crazy idea to work out what the safe perimeter is that houses need, clear that area, and then just let bush fires do their thing like they have for millennia?
A bit crazy. Embers can travel a long distance to ignite a house. If no one is there to extinguish it the house will go. You can clear the surface fuel from around a house ( no need to chop the trees, just the twigs and leaves they drop ) such that it is safe enough for a person to stay and defend. There has been more emphasis on evacuation since the Black Saturday fires 2009 where there were 180 fatalities. The fire tornadoes that upturned the tankers a few days ago will destroy a house . Fire tornadoes are sporadic but are a risk for someone sheltering from the worst of the fire front in a house, with plans to get out and save the house once the front has passed.
That's probably one of the reasons the "Be prepared and stay or go early " advice shifted to early evacuation. More houses are lost but possibly casualties have been reduced. Last minute evacuation along smoky roads is very risky.
I have been doing a bit of reading recently about bushfires. What comes clear - that energy radiated during is enormous.
I needed to read twice and check again and again if the dot and units at numbers are in right place.
Consensus is that until fire hits 3,000 kw per meter of front line you could still try to fight, but above that all our effort is hopeless.
Hard to imagine. Our sun on good day deliver 1kw power per square meter and we are talking here about Megawatts per single meter !!
up to 20,000x more heat then on sunny day !
learnline.cdu.edu.au/units/env207/fundamentals/behaviour.html
and even more interesting lecture how our brave firefighters are preparing himself for the fight, once caught
Select to expand quoteTheTruth said..
Around 1000 of them will be arriving on Hastings Warf on the HMAS Choules in a few hours time. They've come from Mallacoota as part of the evacuations. Some may have lost their homes, Grey Nomads may have just left their RV's there.
If you were to set up a gazeebo at Hastings Warf to sell them stuff, what would you sell them to bring in maximum profit if you were that way inclined?
Depends on how well insured the house was. I recall a bit of chicken and champagne being consumed in the driveway of one burnt out house after the Canberra fires.
Looking at some of the images of of burned out houses and fire fronts. It seems to me that these fires don't seem to care if it bushland or farmland.
Select to expand quoteMacroscien said..
I have been doing a bit of reading recently about bushfires. What comes clear - that energy radiated during is enormous.
I needed to read twice and check again and again if the dot and units at numbers are in right place.
Consensus is that until fire hits 3,000 kw per meter of front line you could still try to fight, but above that all our effort is hopeless.
That's 3,000kW per lineal metre, the Byram fire line intensity. It's a result of multiplying the fire rate of spread, times the surface fuel load times the heat content of the fuel. (about 18MJ/kg). So it's basically the energy released behind a lineal metre of fire front. Not strictly an intensity which should be per square metre. But that's what they call it. The flame depth of course could be several metres. As a rule of thumb a 3MW fire has a flame about 3 metres high. Fully thick flames radiate at 100kW/m^2. For a 3 metres high flame , front side and back side thats's 600kW of radiation for a 3MW/metre fire. 20% of the energy, the rest of the energy is in the rising hot gases. Just a rough rule of thumb, lots of variables.
But 3 metre flames are about as high as a fire crew would be willing to tackle. Fire line intensities of up to 100MW/m are believed to be possible, 100 metre flame heights!
Select to expand quoteHarrow said..
Would it be a crazy idea to work out what the safe perimeter is that houses need, clear that area, and then just let bush fires do their thing like they have for millennia?
I fully agree with you Harrow, that all we really can do is some cleaning around the house and roads.Amount of green conferences and solar panels are not going to alternate our climate behaviour radically.
But bulldozing along main roads and cleaning some greenery is quite realistic goal.
Select to expand quoteIan K said..Macroscien said..
I have been doing a bit of reading recently about bushfires. What comes clear - that energy radiated during is enormous.
I needed to read twice and check again and again if the dot and units at numbers are in right place.
Consensus is that until fire hits 3,000 kw per meter of front line you could still try to fight, but above that all our effort is hopeless.
That's 3,000kW per lineal metre, the Byram fire line intensity. It's a result of multiplying the fire rate of spread, times the surface fuel load times the heat content of the fuel. (about 18MJ/kg). So it's basically the energy released behind a lineal metre of fire front. Not strictly an intensity which should be per square metre. But that's what they call it. The flame depth of course could be several metres. As a rule of thumb a 3MW fire has a flame about 3 metres high. Fully thick flames radiate at 100kW/m^2. For a 3 metres high flame , front side and back side thats's 600kW of radiation for a 3MW/metre fire. 20% of the energy, the rest of the energy is in the rising hot gases. Just a rough rule of thumb, lots of variables.
But 3 metre flames are about as high as a fire crew would be willing to tackle. Fire line intensities of up to 100MW/m are believed to be possible, 100 metre flame heights!
So the next interesting question from fire science could be amount of water required to put down raging fire.
If we know how much water is required to extinguish 3MW fire, per given square meter, would could calculate amount needed for 1 ha, and so on. That information could give us reasonable knowledge how realistic could be total war with extended bush fire,
If our air planes are really able to make any difference.
What size bushfire at given extreme wind and temp condition we have chance to put down every time.
I imagine that strategy for next year will be preparation of special forces- able to strike with maximum effect in very short time, before fire has a chance to spread.( BTW I wish we could invent sort of large sails able to screen property from direct radiant heat, We could fight amber attack with sprinklers , but not direct radiant heat and flames. I f I could invent something it will be sort of portable wall made of air gel )
the next idea could be attempt to controll 100MW/m fires with : .........
Jet engine!taken from most powerfull airplane and installed on fire truck should be able to controll the most vitious fire with blast of fresh air.
Even creating controlled fire tornados could be then helpfull in the time when no other means are available
Select to expand quotelocateg said..
Looking at some of the images of of burned out houses and fire fronts. It seems to me that these fires don't seem to care if it bushland or farmland.
You can have a house surrounded by water, but one burning ember in the corner of a deck/verandah, in a few dry leaves in a gutter, in some mulch in the garden beside the house and in minutes the house can be beyond saving even with a tanker. And burning embers can travel five kilometres or more!
Heat combined with an extreme lack of humidity makes things that would not usually burn quickly or easily, burn like they had an accelerant poured on them.
Many houses are also lost after the fire has passed due to a small flammable part of the house erupting minutes or even hours later. That's why if you're going to defend your property you need to be prepared to first protect yourself so you can then protect your house.
If you're not confident you have the preparation, equipment and confidence to defend, leave early.
Select to expand quotedrsurf said..locateg said..
Looking at some of the images of of burned out houses and fire fronts. It seems to me that these fires don't seem to care if it bushland or farmland.
You can have a house surrounded by water, but one burning ember in the corner of a deck/verandah, in a few dry leaves in a gutter, in some mulch in the garden beside the house and in minutes the house can be beyond saving even with a tanker. And burning embers can travel five kilometres or more!
Heat combined with an extreme lack of humidity makes things that would not usually burn quickly or easily, burn like they had an accelerant poured on them.
Many houses are also lost after the fire has passed due to a small flammable part of the house erupting minutes or even hours later. That's why if you're going to defend your property you need to be prepared to first protect yourself so you can then protect your house.
If you're not confident you have the preparation, equipment and confidence to defend, leave early.
I'm totally aware of all that. Just went through it all in the last couple of months had a crown fire go over the top of my investment properties I decided to stay and fight at the more well prepared house.
Waiting for the fire front to come through is a stressful time.
Across the road from my farm there was a been a peat fire burning for about two months, Made me nervous as you said it only takes one ember to cause major problems. Also that peat smoke gave my lungs a hard time worse than normal smoke for some reason.
Select to expand quoteMacroscien said..
Where did you find that Macro? The Mogo fire simulator. Still going, all the young scientists are now old and grey. They no longer burn Bedfords. Did you know the initial layout and jet sizes were calculated to work with a noreaster blowing the flames over the truck by a windsurfer 25 years ago! Wind is important and a sea breeze at Broulee was the only direction he thought he stood a chance of predicting. He'd hoped to simulate a fire up to 12 MW/m but I think the best he got, burning about 3 litres of LPG a second was 5. Those crooked boxes shielding the control valves were annoying years ago. still no one has straightened them.
Select to expand quoteTheTruth said..
If you were to set up a gazeebo at Hastings Warf to sell them stuff, what would you sell them to bring in maximum profit if you were that way inclined?
Daughter saw 4 bottles of water for $45. I'm surprised the didn't receive a brick through the window.
It comes down to house design and not storing a wood pile under your eaves. I've no doubt a house can built to survive an ember attack and a certain level of radiant heat, which would then determine the width of the cleared perimeter. No good for existing homes, but there's going to be a lot of rebuilding, so there's now a chance for a lot of people to do it right. Costs more, sure, but so does having to rebuild a house that burned down.
A friend recently built a house in the blue mountains and described to me all the things he did to make the place fire proof. Things like metal fascia, mesh screens to stop radiant heat setting the curtains and mattresses on fire. No plastic plumbing external to the house. No timber fixings outside. Wood storage shed a good distance from the house. There's really nothing an ember attack could set alight on his house.
Select to expand quoteHarrow said..TheTruth said..
If you were to set up a gazeebo at Hastings Warf to sell them stuff, what would you sell them to bring in maximum profit if you were that way inclined?
Daughter saw 4 bottles of water for $45. I'm surprised the didn't receive a brick through the window.
There are stories down south about some shopkeeper jacking up prices when he realised that there weren't many options and people were trapped. I am sure that sort of thing doesn't go down well after the emergency has passed.
Here's a kind of funny story. When the power went down on the south coast, the petrol stations couldn't operate their pumps. However, one of my kids saw people filling up their cars and a long queue at one particular petrol station. She figured they must have had a local generator or something, so she joined the queue in her car. It took about 20 minutes for her to reach the pump, at which time she found out that the pumps weren't working. It seems everyone was just joining the queue like she did, and even though people were telling the car behind them that the pump didn't work, people couldn't help but try themselves, just to be sure. For passing cars, that looked like people filling their cars, and so they all just kept joining the queue like.
View from my bedroom window a couple of years back in penticton Canada. We were lucky there was a large area of cleared land (golf course) between us and it but still couldn't go outside for weeks due to thick smoke.
