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Hyperinflation

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Created by Razzonater A week ago, 24 Mar 2020
Razzonater
2058 posts
24 Mar 2020 3:27PM
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The scenario in the world playing out right now is the perfect recipe for hyperinflation.
I discussed this last year however many did not think it was possible, what we are now seeing on a global scale is the requirement for many many governments to print money out of thin air and a lot of it.
Several indicators are already apparent in our population
1) hoarding goods
2) limited goods available
3) Cash money about to be printed at an unprecedented rate
4) destabilised population
5) high unemployment
6) rapid loss of value against other Currencies
7)high unemployment rate

At the current stage We are looking at a 50/50 of hyperinflation occurring in several countries

FormulaNova
NSW, 10484 posts
24 Mar 2020 6:45PM
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Select to expand quote
Razzonater said..
The scenario in the world playing out right now is the perfect recipe for hyperinflation.
I discussed this last year however many did not think it was possible, what we are now seeing on a global scale is the requirement for many many governments to print money out of thin air and a lot of it.
Several indicators are already apparent in our population
1) hoarding goods
2) limited goods available
3) Cash money about to be printed at an unprecedented rate
4) destabilised population
5) high unemployment
6) rapid loss of value against other Currencies
7)high unemployment rate

At the current stage We are looking at a 50/50 of hyperinflation occurring in several countries


Really? I know you want your prediction to be true, but I think the main thing to consider is that hoarding is of food. Not of TVs, not of washing machines, not of cars. There will be plenty of those around after this thing is done. Heaps! No shortage here.

Even with food, we are a nett exporter and we can't export as much as we used to, so there will be an oversupply of food, no matter how much people think they can squirrel away.

High unemployment does not make for high inflation. Probably the opposite. Demand falls with increasing unemployment.

Nah, I think you are clutching at straws with this one.

Chris6791
WA, 3214 posts
24 Mar 2020 3:56PM
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Hoarding of food is a spike, feedback already today from talking to supermarket staff is that people are now already being frugal and shopping to a strict budget. Can't keep stocking up if you've already maxed out the credit card and you're unemployed.

bazz61
QLD, 2829 posts
24 Mar 2020 6:01PM
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Every other country will be printing $$ as well , so its the same sinking ship .

Imax1
QLD, 2514 posts
24 Mar 2020 6:19PM
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Should i be turning all my cash holding up my mattress into gold ?

Razzonater
2058 posts
24 Mar 2020 4:25PM
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bazz61 said..
Every other country will be printing $$ as well , so its the same sinking ship .


Agree 100% , however this is exactly What may cause an unprecedented hyperinflation scenario in multiple countries.

This is currently a global power play of purchasing companies land and resources

Tequila !
WA, 358 posts
24 Mar 2020 4:47PM
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Prices are already up 10% a mininum at supermarkets.
Oil at 25 yr lows and fuel at the bowser not coming down.
Its already here folks

Paddles B'mere
QLD, 3120 posts
24 Mar 2020 6:54PM
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You're absolutely right Bazz everyone will be printing money, the exchange rates are the killer for the importers at the moment though. We do a bit of work with some importers so I had a bit of a quick check yesterday and for this calendar year the Renmimbi has hardly changed against the $US but the $AU has dropped by about 14% ..................... it's brutal.

bazz61
QLD, 2829 posts
24 Mar 2020 7:07PM
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Aust has every thing the world needs , so picking it will bounce back quicker except the tourist areas , WA will boom again , fingers crossed .

Paddles B'mere
QLD, 3120 posts
24 Mar 2020 7:13PM
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That's my call too Bazz, conditions should be perfect for an industrial revolution. I would love to see manufacturing bounce back with government support now that we're a low cost centre for labour.

Bara
WA, 647 posts
24 Mar 2020 5:22PM
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Agreed razz hyperinflation is a real risk out the other side.

Gold is your hedge and the liquidity crunch has meant it's not taken off in USD yet..

Bitcoin hasn't done too well this crisis has it!

patsken
WA, 685 posts
24 Mar 2020 5:28PM
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Select to expand quote
Tequila ! said..
Prices are already up 10% a mininum at supermarkets.
Oil at 25 yr lows and fuel at the bowser not coming down.
Its already here folks


I just filled the wife's car up for a $1.01 per litre so I'm not sure where you're buying your fuel but I'd shop around a bit if I were you if you can !

Bananabender
QLD, 1032 posts
24 Mar 2020 7:47PM
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Select to expand quote
patsken said..
Tequila ! said..
Prices are already up 10% a mininum at supermarkets.
Oil at 25 yr lows and fuel at the bowser not coming down.
Its already here folks


I just filled the wife's car up for a $1.01 per litre so I'm not sure where you're buying your fuel but I'd shop around a bit if I were you if you can !

1.49 here in brissy. Gouging when everyone is f...ked

FormulaNova
NSW, 10484 posts
24 Mar 2020 9:05PM
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Select to expand quote
patsken said..
Tequila ! said..
Prices are already up 10% a mininum at supermarkets.
Oil at 25 yr lows and fuel at the bowser not coming down.
Its already here folks


I just filled the wife's car up for a $1.01 per litre so I'm not sure where you're buying your fuel but I'd shop around a bit if I were you if you can !


The price advertising scheme does wonders in WA. You should be happy you have got it, as in other states, they still play games with it.

Here in WA everyone knows what the price is for tomorrow, so they will go there and the places that try and exploit the price get ignored. Not so in NSW, and probably the other states too.

Tequila !
WA, 358 posts
24 Mar 2020 10:00PM
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Select to expand quote
patsken said..

Tequila ! said..
Prices are already up 10% a mininum at supermarkets.
Oil at 25 yr lows and fuel at the bowser not coming down.
Its already here folks



I just filled the wife's car up for a $1.01 per litre so I'm not sure where you're buying your fuel but I'd shop around a bit if I were you if you can !


A gallon (4 litres) selling in USA for 1.65USD today and what are saying again?

AndyShwartz
WA, 56 posts
24 Mar 2020 10:38PM
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Select to expand quote
Razzonater said..
The scenario in the world playing out right now is the perfect recipe for hyperinflation.
I discussed this last year however many did not think it was possible, what we are now seeing on a global scale is the requirement for many many governments to print money out of thin air and a lot of it.
Several indicators are already apparent in our population
1) hoarding goods
2) limited goods available
3) Cash money about to be printed at an unprecedented rate
4) destabilised population
5) high unemployment
6) rapid loss of value against other Currencies
7)high unemployment rate

At the current stage We are looking at a 50/50 of hyperinflation occurring in several countries


Things could not look more ripe for hyperinflation.

Maybe go 50/50 gold/cash. Crazy times.

Little Jon
NSW, 2013 posts
25 Mar 2020 7:42PM
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Like germany in the great depression needing a wheelbarrow to take home your pay or zimbabwe and their one billion dollar note or more recently in venezuela so worthless you would bother picking it up in the street.




psychomub
277 posts
25 Mar 2020 4:53PM
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The long term goal of the elites has always been the destruction of the middle classes.

Hyperinflation will do a lot of that and I do believe it is coming. In the short term most of this bailout money will go to the 1%. They will use these funds to buy up assets for cents in the dollar. Deeply indebted countries will have to pay the bailout funds back .

Hyperinflation will finish off anyone left with anything.

BTW, gold confiscation has happened before.

Mr Milk
NSW, 1886 posts
25 Mar 2020 7:54PM
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Select to expand quote
Paddles B'mere said..
You're absolutely right Bazz everyone will be printing money, the exchange rates are the killer for the importers at the moment though. We do a bit of work with some importers so I had a bit of a quick check yesterday and for this calendar year the Renmimbi has hardly changed against the $US but the $AU has dropped by about 14% ..................... it's brutal.


You do know that renminbi is pegged against the $US, don't you, Paddles?
If it was a free float it would have collapsed due to Trump's tariffs and now the coronavirus shutdown

Main
QLD, 1998 posts
25 Mar 2020 7:01PM
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Select to expand quote
AndyShwartz said..

Razzonater said..
The scenario in the world playing out right now is the perfect recipe for hyperinflation.
I discussed this last year however many did not think it was possible, what we are now seeing on a global scale is the requirement for many many governments to print money out of thin air and a lot of it.
Several indicators are already apparent in our population
1) hoarding goods
2) limited goods available
3) Cash money about to be printed at an unprecedented rate
4) destabilised population
5) high unemployment
6) rapid loss of value against other Currencies
7)high unemployment rate

At the current stage We are looking at a 50/50 of hyperinflation occurring in several countries



Things could not look more ripe for hyperinflation.

Maybe go 50/50 gold/cash. Crazy times.


With all the write downs And losses I'd be surprised to see hyperinflation. it's like pumping more air into a ballon with a hole in it....

Tequila !
WA, 358 posts
25 Mar 2020 5:06PM
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Select to expand quote
Main said..

AndyShwartz said..


Razzonater said..
The scenario in the world playing out right now is the perfect recipe for hyperinflation.
I discussed this last year however many did not think it was possible, what we are now seeing on a global scale is the requirement for many many governments to print money out of thin air and a lot of it.
Several indicators are already apparent in our population
1) hoarding goods
2) limited goods available
3) Cash money about to be printed at an unprecedented rate
4) destabilised population
5) high unemployment
6) rapid loss of value against other Currencies
7)high unemployment rate

At the current stage We are looking at a 50/50 of hyperinflation occurring in several countries




Things could not look more ripe for hyperinflation.

Maybe go 50/50 gold/cash. Crazy times.



With all the write downs And losses I'd be surprised to see hyperinflation. it's like pumping more air into a ballon with a hole in it....


Production chains collapsing, logistical challenges, red tape, inspections, credit limits doe increased default risk of biz borrowing, tax increases (who is paying for all this cash splurge).
All fuel inflation.

Main
QLD, 1998 posts
25 Mar 2020 7:15PM
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Select to expand quote
Tequila ! said..

Main said..


AndyShwartz said..



Razzonater said..
The scenario in the world playing out right now is the perfect recipe for hyperinflation.
I discussed this last year however many did not think it was possible, what we are now seeing on a global scale is the requirement for many many governments to print money out of thin air and a lot of it.
Several indicators are already apparent in our population
1) hoarding goods
2) limited goods available
3) Cash money about to be printed at an unprecedented rate
4) destabilised population
5) high unemployment
6) rapid loss of value against other Currencies
7)high unemployment rate

At the current stage We are looking at a 50/50 of hyperinflation occurring in several countries





Things could not look more ripe for hyperinflation.

Maybe go 50/50 gold/cash. Crazy times.




With all the write downs And losses I'd be surprised to see hyperinflation. it's like pumping more air into a ballon with a hole in it....



Production chains collapsing, logistical challenges, red tape, inspections, credit limits doe increased default risk of biz borrowing, tax increases (who is paying for all this cash splurge).
All fuel inflation.


The US S&P has lost about $9 trillion. Who knows what values SME's have written off. need to print a lot of money to cause inflation in that environment.

FormulaNova
NSW, 10484 posts
25 Mar 2020 8:27PM
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Hyperinflation.. bring it on. No more mortgage and I can eat tomatoes all day long!

In Venezuela, the problem is lack of value in the currency as it is not fixed by the free market, it is fixed by the government. No one believes this value exists and even the government will not exchange at that rate. I.e. the value is rubbish and completely made up.

There has been a parallel black market running for a long time and the government tries to stamp it out but they cannot get away from the problem that no one will exchange your Venezuelan Bolivars for USD for anywhere near what the government says they should, and the government can't and won't do it either.

If VZ fixed their Bolivars to a percentage of the USD and guaranteed it, the inflation would be over in a heartbeat. It is purely a government run problem. The falling standards and failing to meet oil production targets is also their problem, but a true floating exchange rate fixes that. Which they will not allow... because they the government are corrupt idiots.

While I agree that we may have some corrupt idiots, our floating exchange rate will take care of the value question.

If you don't agree with the above I can just offer the advice of buying up in silver and living under a bridge.

Paddles B'mere
QLD, 3120 posts
25 Mar 2020 7:27PM
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Yep, I know a little about the Renminbi MM, in particular it's exchange rate can be "adjusted" by the Chinese government like you say. The issue is that most Australian importers rarely pay Renminbi for goods, they pay $US. Because the Renminbi is "adjusted" to suit US/China trade and not to suit AUS/China trade, the price of Chinese goods landed here will increase as local traders will find it difficult to negotiate reduced pricing on the basis of exchange rates. ie the Renminbi is following the $US and the $AU has plummeted against the $US. Bring on Australian manufacturing

FormulaNova
NSW, 10484 posts
25 Mar 2020 8:28PM
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Select to expand quote
Tequila ! said..
Main said..

AndyShwartz said..


Razzonater said..
The scenario in the world playing out right now is the perfect recipe for hyperinflation.
I discussed this last year however many did not think it was possible, what we are now seeing on a global scale is the requirement for many many governments to print money out of thin air and a lot of it.
Several indicators are already apparent in our population
1) hoarding goods
2) limited goods available
3) Cash money about to be printed at an unprecedented rate
4) destabilised population
5) high unemployment
6) rapid loss of value against other Currencies
7)high unemployment rate

At the current stage We are looking at a 50/50 of hyperinflation occurring in several countries




Things could not look more ripe for hyperinflation.

Maybe go 50/50 gold/cash. Crazy times.



With all the write downs And losses I'd be surprised to see hyperinflation. it's like pumping more air into a ballon with a hole in it....


Production chains collapsing, logistical challenges, red tape, inspections, credit limits doe increased default risk of biz borrowing, tax increases (who is paying for all this cash splurge).
All fuel inflation.


If there is demand. If there is falling demand, inflation will not happen.

Paddles B'mere
QLD, 3120 posts
25 Mar 2020 7:31PM
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If there is more fiat currency added to the economy inflation is guaranteed


And what does monetary policy dictate the RBA must do to combat inflation??????

AndyShwartz
WA, 56 posts
27 Mar 2020 5:19AM
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Paddles B'mere said..
If there is more fiat currency added to the economy inflation is guaranteed


And what does monetary policy dictate the RBA must do to combat inflation??????


Is this sarcasm? So we enter a period of inflation so the RBA increases interest rates to cool inflation but also cools the economy?

Paddles B'mere
QLD, 3120 posts
27 Mar 2020 9:09AM
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It is anything but Andy .................. it is guaranteed given existing monetary policy

Main
QLD, 1998 posts
27 Mar 2020 9:53AM
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Paddles B'mere said..
It is anything but Andy .................. it is guaranteed given existing monetary policy


You taking bets on your theories yet ?

Paddles B'mere
QLD, 3120 posts
27 Mar 2020 9:59AM
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Betting on the RBA having to raise interest rates within the next 12 months would have pretty short odds I reckon Main, do you think it won't happen?

Bara
WA, 647 posts
27 Mar 2020 11:28AM
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inflation will go up as measured by our CPI - its inevitable after a 15% to 20% currency devaluation. Well past the RBAs target.

Just look at the UK and pound post GFC for a guide. Currency devaluation followed by inflation into a weak economy.

We have no knowledge of this here in oz as we were either saved by rudd or by china depending on your level of economic knowledge.

The RBA will ignore our coming inflation spike though and call it transitory.

This will mean even more asset inflation.

is basically eppos golden age.

Ill take that bet paddles and ill even give 2 cases of corona to your 1 if im wrong




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Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...


"Hyperinflation" started by Razzonater