How accurate do you find Forecasts?

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salt
salt
VIC
617 posts
VIC, 617 posts
28 Mar 2010 12:26am
SO Is it worth checking forescasts? Has anyojjne got data on how accurate they are? is there a link to a compare and contrast between forecasts and actual weather.

Basically should i stop being a seabreeze weather forecast junkie??
Bigwavedave
Bigwavedave
QLD
2057 posts
QLD, 2057 posts
27 Mar 2010 11:50pm
You should do a search and find the four thousand other times this subject has been discussed.
echostorm
echostorm
QLD
1245 posts
QLD, 1245 posts
27 Mar 2010 11:52pm
Depends on where your from. Most of us will say they are not accurate when we are amping up for super winds and are totally let down when they never arrive. However in reality they are actually quite accurate.

Here on the Sunny Coast, the graphs tend to over estimate the Southerlys and under estimate the northerlys. Its always good to combine this with the wind graphs from the BOM, synoptic charts, local knowlege, and the coastal waters forecast.

Using all technologies you will still get those days, when everything says there is going to be wind but sadly it just never arrives. Feel free to start abusing Laurie when this does happen although, bare in mind, on the days when we get wind, we also should be thanking laurie for preparing us!!!
laurie
laurie
QLD
3902 posts
QLD, 3902 posts
28 Mar 2010 9:42pm
echostorm said...
Feel free to start abusing Laurie when this does happen although, bare in mind, on the days when we get wind, we also should be thanking laurie for preparing us!!!


Hey!

The weather often has a mind of it's own, despite everybodies best attempt to predict it. As echostorm suggests, arm yourself with knowledge, so you can "substantiate" the green arrows in your neck of the woods.

Learn to read synoptic charts is the best start. You can click on the 7 day forecast, and it takes you directly to the synoptic.

Primer on synoptics / using them to read the wind is here:

www.seabreeze.com.au/info/wind.asp

This article shows how far forecasting has come in the last 50 years

www.seabreeze.com.au/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx

Enjoy...
lotofwind
lotofwind
NSW
6451 posts
NSW, 6451 posts
28 Mar 2010 10:50pm
The best thing about the forcasts is when seabreeze shows red arrows,
so you think,ok,no chance today,
then it blows the fleas off ya dog all day.
Gotta love the unexpected sessions.

But then again,
I think we have all sat down the beach for 6hrs because green arrows were shown,
and nothing comesYou know its not gunna come as predicted,but,you dont want to leave,,,, just in case.
Thats when I come home and start sticking pins into the spine of my Laurie vodoo doll. LOL[}:)][}:)][}:)]
salt
salt
VIC
617 posts
VIC, 617 posts
28 Mar 2010 10:51pm
laurie said...

echostorm said...
Feel free to start abusing Laurie when this does happen although, bare in mind, on the days when we get wind, we also should be thanking laurie for preparing us!!!


Hey!

The weather often has a mind of it's own, despite everybodies best attempt to predict it. As echostorm suggests, arm yourself with knowledge, so you can "substantiate" the green arrows in your neck of the woods.

Learn to read synoptic charts is the best start. You can click on the 7 day forecast, and it takes you directly to the synoptic.

Primer on synoptics / using them to read the wind is here:

www.seabreeze.com.au/info/wind.asp

This article shows how far forecasting has come in the last 50 years

www.seabreeze.com.au/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx

Enjoy...



Nice one, thanx a lot
KnutH
KnutH
VIC
427 posts
VIC, 427 posts
28 Mar 2010 10:52pm
For Melbourne, I usually find BOM substantially more accurate than Seabreeze.
However in the last few weeks, the forecast on this site was not too far off -did you guys change anything?
I should have trusted the Seabreeze forecast today, so I ended up driving all the way to Rosebud..
Who else had a fantastic session there? [}:)]
TOAD
TOAD
NSW
305 posts
NSW, 305 posts
29 Mar 2010 12:42pm
As a popular singer once said "You don't need a weatherman to say which way the wind blows"
the gibbo
the gibbo
WA
776 posts
WA, 776 posts
29 Mar 2010 7:08pm
Always seabreeze for the here and now but, BOM forecast seems right more often than not. Windguru(google it) a bit negative seabreeze a bit positive, somwhere in the middle.

Over two years of kiting ive done you learn whats going on, the lows and highs and what happens when they bump into eachother, the synoptics is the one as said before. Watch it every day, quickly youll pick whats happening locally.

This said WA very predictable.
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