Sundays downwinder WA?

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orsmboost
orsmboost
WA
17 posts
WA, 17 posts
26 Sep 2007 10:42pm
Hi WAKSA
Sundays graph in WA looks bad.
One can assume that the downwinder is off......No?
bobjaan
bobjaan
WA
314 posts
WA, 314 posts
27 Sep 2007 8:25am
will it be held next weekend instead. Was looking forward to starting the season off by meeting some new people over a few beers.

getfunky
getfunky
WA
4485 posts
WA, 4485 posts
27 Sep 2007 11:10am
Burger!! (with extra cheese please) I have to work every Sunday in Oct Oh well there probably won't be any SWsters for the month the way things are going...
Juddy
Juddy
WA
1103 posts
WA, 1103 posts
27 Sep 2007 12:53pm
what a freakin' crying waste of a long weekend. Not a dot of kiteable wind...and when we all go back to work on Tuesday, guess what will happen...
ADS
ADS
WA
365 posts
ADS ADS
WA, 365 posts
27 Sep 2007 6:06pm
May be some wind after all - BOM is forcasting 13-18 ssw Sat and 15-20 ssw Sunday...
orsmboost
orsmboost
WA
17 posts
WA, 17 posts
27 Sep 2007 10:37pm
Huh?
How come the SeaBreeze graph differs so from BOM?
sci
sci
WA
762 posts
sci sci
WA, 762 posts
28 Sep 2007 12:17am
Taken from BOM.

Saturday: E/NE winds 8/13 knots shifting S/SW 13/18 knots in the afternoon. Seas
1.0m to 1.5m. Swell 1.5m to 2.0m.

Sunday: S/SE winds 10/15 knots, tending S/SW 15/20 knots in the afternoon
brooksy
brooksy
WA
498 posts
WA, 498 posts
28 Sep 2007 6:44am
Laurie uses his own algorithms to forecast.

Just have to wait and see who is right...
Kitehard
Kitehard
WA
2782 posts
WA, 2782 posts
28 Sep 2007 7:16am
If you subtract the BOM's 5 knot arse covering Policy, you get about the same reading from both.

Having said that, I welcome any kind of seabreeze at this point.

Good winds,

laurie
laurie
QLD
3902 posts
QLD, 3902 posts
28 Sep 2007 12:25pm
quote:
Originally posted by brooksy

Laurie uses his own algorithms to forecast.

Just have to wait and see who is right...



For those who are interested, the specific algorithm is:

Windspeed = (Windspeed + Random(10)) + (LozX x 10)

The LozX factor ranges from 0 to 1 .. The higher my chances of getting on the water, the lower the forecast will be (by upto 10 knots) to reduce the crowd factor. This also explains why on days when there's a perfect 3m swell, and sideshore 20 knot winds, seabreeze forecasts 0.5 m swell and mild offshore wind.

(The above is ficticous, just in case you've got your serious face on .. don't want to start a new urban myth!)
choicey
choicey
QLD
280 posts
QLD, 280 posts
28 Sep 2007 12:55pm
What happend to the crystal ball Loz?
xtortya
xtortya
WA
322 posts
WA, 322 posts
28 Sep 2007 11:51am
so its really a 4 meter swell and 23 knot southerly at the moment loz. Damn you work!!!!!
Poida
Poida
WA
1922 posts
WA, 1922 posts
28 Sep 2007 1:08pm
sounds like a very similar algorithm I use for estimating construction costs

getfunky
getfunky
WA
4485 posts
WA, 4485 posts
28 Sep 2007 3:42pm
quote:
If you subtract the BOM's 5 knot arse covering Policy, you get about the same reading from both.




That is excactly how I have explained the diff to newbies in the past.

It is the "Don't even try to sue us when you get dragged accross the highway cowboy - we overestimated and you just plain fkd up!!" disclaimer.
WAKSA
WAKSA
WA
813 posts
WA, 813 posts
28 Sep 2007 10:27pm
This event is going ahead....

Please see this post
www.seabreeze.com.au/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=31037 for details and the WAKSA Website
www.waksa.org.au
Joe_Vetter
Joe_Vetter
WA
17 posts
WA, 17 posts
28 Sep 2007 11:24pm

The WAKSA main page says Saturday 30th. Saturday is the 29th. I assume it's still planned for Sunday ?

Joe
WAKSA
WAKSA
WA
813 posts
WA, 813 posts
29 Sep 2007 6:54am
Apologies Joe, corrected now, thanks for pointing out!

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