Weather -Forecasting/Predicting Port Phillip Bay

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Spider
Spider
VIC
18 posts
VIC, 18 posts
29 Mar 2006 11:42pm
Just wanted to start this to help those new to kiteboarding:
- how to find wind
- Places that are safer and more fun in certain wind directions
- How to predict dangerous winds and squalls to avoid serious injury
- General weather patterns: Summer & winter
- What to do in a serious squall
- the sea breeze?

Whatever etc etc etc. If any new people to kiteboarding have any questions or for those that don't know much about the weather post questions here and myself or somenone else will do their best to help.
I hope this can help prevent people from being seriously hurt or worse...

ming_arsenal
ming_arsenal
VIC
112 posts
VIC, 112 posts
30 Mar 2006 12:02am
winter-most suck and northerly best place is Rye (far)
otherwise-St kilda (dirty water)-anything with south.
-Brighton-anything with south and west.
-Altona-anything except north.
Another choice is go down to Goolong. See detail from person below
Spider
Spider
VIC
18 posts
VIC, 18 posts
30 Mar 2006 12:11am
quote:
Originally posted by ming_arsenal

winter-most suck and northerly best place is Rye (far)
otherwise-St kilda (dirty water)-anything with south.
-Brighton-anything with south and west.
-Altona-anything except north.
Another choice is go down to Goolong. See detail from person below



Congrats on your 100th post!!!!!!!

Altona is dirty cos Lane kites there.
Rye is fun but you can often get let down if the wind doesn't get in there. Also its very onshore and I seen 1 guy get thrown into the carpark during 20 minutes of winter mayhem. Best to get there early in the day for consistent winds.
West at Brighton not good. There are better places on a westerly. South or SSW is perfect.
dan OK?
dan OK?
VIC
253 posts
VIC, 253 posts
30 Mar 2006 5:10pm
hey spider thanks for your email and for starting this page.
after hearing about Laurie at gnotuck and hearing how experienced he is i thought, would i have seen the squall coming,what tell tale signs do the more experienced guys pick up that the rest of us miss.
Till now any wind that gets me out there is good wind and the cloud coming towards me brings hope of a good session not danger.so;
can you kite in the rain ever?
can you kite in a westerly in winter ever?
is nw and sw out to?
in a squall ide dive the kite at the water then pull the release ball(recon). is that right?
been too busy learning all the cool stuff to worry about all this boring stuff but after reading these pages and what can happen so quickly i need to stuff more inside my head the protect it with my shinny new helmet!
bondo
bondo
QLD
699 posts
QLD, 699 posts
30 Mar 2006 4:39pm
dont dive the kite just pull the quick release as soon as you possibly can. accept it will most likely happen too fast for you to react in time, you will only be able to mitigate the consequences if you get really caught by a strong gust.

can you kite in the rain? yes - but if the forecast predicts squalls avoid going out. judge this one on the day. the odd rain cloud throwing some water at you is normally ok.

can you kite in a westerly? depends, they are gusty. are squalls predicted? what is the predicted strength? im still working this out myself but i'd say the answer is maybe, judge on the day. ive kited NW and SW in melbourne and they were OK. i found NW at brighton very gusty though.

btw - pt henry in geelong is sick - big area of butter flat water, sea urchins and lovely stink weed that keeps the more precious kiters away
Spider
Spider
VIC
18 posts
VIC, 18 posts
30 Mar 2006 10:15pm
You can kite in winter be it W, SW, NW or any other directions. But generally W and NW winds are associated with frontal systems and can be more unpredictable and dangerous.

Kiting in the rain isn't always a problem. It isn't the most pleasent time to go out so it shouldn't be crowded. However if it is raining the wind will be less consistent and very up & down. Big gusts and big lulls. Usually when the rain clears the wind becomes more consistant. It may drop out or pick up in strength depending on a bunch of different factors.

Clouds aren't all bad either. The one's to look out for are cumulonimbus which basically means thunderstorm and very unsettled air. These cells usually travel east which means they are usually accompanied by westerly winds. Check the link out. This site will teach you all you heaps about this.
www.australiasevereweather.com/techniques/moreadv/storms.htm#1
Remember if it fully overcast it will be harder to identify these cells so look out for flat bottomed dark clouds. Dark clouds mean the cloud stretches very high from base to top not allowing much light through.

NW winds are more common in winter in melbourne and can be fun days on the water. They are very similar to north winds over summer and will blow harder in the morning and ease off in the arvo (sunny). This might happen 2 or 3 days prior to a cold front/LPS (low pressure system). As the LPS approaches the NW winds will get stronger and tend more westerly. At this time they will get very hard to predict and squalls will be more likely. If you are not confident reading the conditions it would be advisable to not head out the day a front is meant to arrive. Especially if overcast.

SW in summer and winter is usually OK but during winter isn't nearly as common. It may blow SW during the initial front of the LPS but as it dies out it usually goes more W followed by W or NW the next day.

If you get stuck in one of these squalls get rid of the kite. The only thing that will hurt you is the kite. It has almost happened to me before when I wanted to protect the kite and almost got hurt. If it is cross shore and you are out to see you shouldn't panic. You are pretty safe in the water. Fly your kite out to sea and check if the weather is looking like hanging around. It may only last 5 minutes or less. Otherwise dump it. If the worst happens and you get launched into the air, don't panic and remember you can still control the kite just like jumping. Once you are on or close enough to the ground get rid of the kite. Avoid flying the kite directly over head to minimize the chance of it happening in the first place. This could be a matter of opinion but thats mine.
Everything happens very fast in these situations.

Hope this helps. Anyone correct me if I'm wrong in any way.

dan OK?
dan OK?
VIC
253 posts
VIC, 253 posts
31 Mar 2006 5:04pm
Im gonna print that up and stick it to the inside of my eyelids, so i can read it when i blink.
That is pure gold!
silviu
silviu
VIC
663 posts
VIC, 663 posts
31 Mar 2006 6:50pm
Thanks Spider. I'm speechless (literally).
Good stuff.
Spider
Spider
VIC
18 posts
VIC, 18 posts
4 Apr 2006 8:30pm
Be a little careful over the next 3 - 4 days. Unpredictable winds and storms very likely. Keep an eye out for changing conditions and don't rig to big a kite.
tWp
tWp
VIC
53 posts
tWp tWp
VIC, 53 posts
5 Apr 2006 3:47pm
great post.

I was just about to post a thread asking where in vic might be decent in winter months.

Gusts = NO NO NO



(edited so people don't read this and get the wrong ideas. read Spiders suggestions below)
Mr Plow
Mr Plow
VIC
428 posts
VIC, 428 posts
5 Apr 2006 6:36pm
Altona doesnt work in a westerly...generally in melb, if its westerly find something else to do...

Altona works best in south thru ESE.
stamp
stamp
QLD
2800 posts
QLD, 2800 posts
5 Apr 2006 7:18pm
you can get away with kiting northerlies at frankston and seaford.
there are also heaps of good spots between frankston and mordialloc when the breeze is coming anywhere from the south right through to the north-west. the water is much cleaner along this stretch than at the northern bay beaches and there is less attitude.
hampton is a great beginners spot in a southerly/sou-wester as the beach is over 50m wide near the lifesaving club and it rarely gets crowded.
always check the bom marine forecast for port philip, its issued at 5am and updated at 1050 and again at 1625. watkins wind site (someone please help me out with the addresses, i am *** hopeless with this stuff) is excellent for the latest wind readings around the bay. its available on mobile phones too but dont ask me how.
as the weather generally moves from west to east, i reckon its a good move to check what the wind is doing on the west coast so you have an idea of whats on the way. ozwind and watkins site are good for this

have respect for the elements
Spider
Spider
VIC
18 posts
VIC, 18 posts
6 Apr 2006 12:00am
North - Carrum (Keast? Park) is fun. Usually isn't quite as windy as the Fawkner Beacon reading. If FB says 30kts will probably be about 20kts. Same as seaford & Frankston.
- Rye is good and heaps of fun cos the sand bars but is almost directly onshore so you can get in trouble.

NW - Brighton is good. can be up and down.
- Ricketts Point 1st car park is awesome but dangerous.
- Parkdale (near Bay St) is good. Plenty of beach to launch etc. Can be a bit gusty

W - Parkdale good also. More cross shore and a lot more beach than Aspendale so should be safer
- Ricketts Pt: Dalgety rd beach. But park down the bottom near life saving club. Usually flat water which is nice but the reef up-wind can hide squalls and bad weather coming.
- Towards the city W is almost directly onshore everywhere which isn't super safe considering the strong squalls associated with westerlies. Also water is usually dirty over winter like Stamp said cos of stoem water drains. Dead possums and ** in the water.

SW and S - As per usual. The places you probably kite in these directions should be OK. Brighton, St Kilda, Sandown St, Hampton, Beauy Yacht club etc.

earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/engage/dynamic-earth-updates/bay-winds
Thats the link to the wind obs site that Stamp is talking about. Other useful stuff on there as well.

www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV10460.txt
Thats the BOM wind forecast for the bays.

www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV65121.shtml
This give OBS for all of Vic including the west coast. Helps to see what weather is heading your way later if you know how to read into it. It doesn't have the nice red arrows though. The best thing about watkins is you can see the recent trends in the wind. ie. Dropping off or picking up, or heading slowly to the west or tending more easterly etc.
Mr Plow
Mr Plow
VIC
428 posts
VIC, 428 posts
6 Apr 2006 2:40pm
Spider,

Re: A mate sent me this link.

I'd remove it pretty quick smart if I was you....
azza
azza
1338 posts
1338 posts
6 Apr 2006 1:03pm
Spider,

Mr Plow is quite correct.

It's a shame, you actually sounded intelligent until that point.
Spider
Spider
VIC
18 posts
VIC, 18 posts
6 Apr 2006 10:37pm
It's removed. Sincere apologies...I was just trying to add some humour but obviously it wasn't hunorous.

I have added another link to my original post above which is what I use along with Watkins. It's more help during winter or when fronts are approaching to estimate arrival time of the front. Gives an idea or heads up on what might happen later.
Mr Plow
Mr Plow
VIC
428 posts
VIC, 428 posts
7 Apr 2006 7:34am
Nice one! You can claim your cred back.

BTW - you are not 6'100" and covered in appallingly bad tatts by any chance?
azza
azza
1338 posts
1338 posts
8 Apr 2006 7:16am
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Plow

Nice one! You can claim your cred back.

BTW - you are not 6'100" and covered in appallingly bad tatts by any chance?



Mr Plow likes 'em rough
Spider
Spider
VIC
18 posts
VIC, 18 posts
8 Apr 2006 11:51am
Na, no tatts here or 6'10". Who is it you're thinking of?
I'm clean cut and 5'8".
Say NO to colar up polo shirts.
Mr Plow
Mr Plow
VIC
428 posts
VIC, 428 posts
8 Apr 2006 12:29pm
Spida Everitt
azza
azza
1338 posts
1338 posts
8 Apr 2006 10:53pm
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Plow

Spida Everitt



Kenny's brother?
www.imdb.com/name/nm0263547/
Mr Plow
Mr Plow
VIC
428 posts
VIC, 428 posts
9 Apr 2006 7:59am
Kenny Everett was a gay comedian who died from Aids...

Spida Everitt is a gay comedian who plays footy for Hawthorn...

No similarity whatsoever
azza
azza
1338 posts
1338 posts
9 Apr 2006 5:12pm
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Plow

Kenny Everett was a gay comedian who died from Aids...

Spida Everitt is a gay comedian who plays footy for Hawthorn...

No similarity whatsoever



Jeeze... I dunno, there's only a shave between them.



Spider
Spider
VIC
18 posts
VIC, 18 posts
10 Apr 2006 1:37pm
OK OK OK.....Back on the topic.

Another little tip for those that kiteboard in E or SE winds in
the bayside area over summer. (ricketts/mentone etc)

If you are at the beach and it is blowing light E or SE about 5 to 10kts
and you look towards Frankston & Mornington and it appears to be hazy and not very visible then the wind is not likely to pick up. However in the same scenario Frankston is very clear with no haze then you could well be in for a windy afternoon.

Another edit: You don't necessarily have to be at the beach to check this. Check the live Frankston cam @ www.triggerbrothers.com.au/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1 and if it's clear bright blue sky over the houses then it could be on in the arvo.

This will usually mean you are in for 2 to 3 days of honking SE'ers tending more E on dusk.
(do beware at Mentone LSC on SE. You will probably get some of the biggest jumps ever but I have been lofted......)

Usually BOM will forecast E or SE winds a few days out and under estimate the strength - 10 to 15kts. If the weather is meant to be fine and warmish (25 to 29 degrees) then expect the winds to be stornger - 20 to 25kts+.
matto
matto
VIC
210 posts
VIC, 210 posts
28 Jun 2006 8:26am
Not to dredge up an old topic.

BUT

Is Rye the best place to go during Winter. I have been noticing the South Channel Island reading is much stronger than Fawkner and St K.

What has Rye been like of late?
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