quote:
Originally posted by tobes
it'd be interesting to know a little more of how the forcasts work, is it just the predictions from the BOM translated to a graph?
Good question! Most folks seem to think we're publishing the BoM, which is not the case. We certainly purchase and use a lot of data from them, and we also source data from a other crew as well. We then merge multiple data sources and apply our own tweaks.
The result is a "Forecast That's Never Wrong(TM)" .. oh.. ok.. the weather changes it's mind now and again, but the forecast was right at the time of publication!!
Weather is a fickle beastie .. I urge everybody to learn to read synoptic charts. It helps to make your own assesment of a forecast, and understand why a forecast may not eventuate as planned.
Better to teach a man to fish, than feed him for a day!
A guy wrote recently saying our forecast was wrong .. by checking the synoptics, we replied that it depended on how high the cold front got up the coast. If it travelled more northerly - windy.. if not .. not windy. We punted it wouldn't .. fortunately that time we were right. Sometimes it's the other way round! Point is, there's no "right" forecast .. just probabilities.
Check these two articles for starters:
About seabreezes and cold fronts
www.seabreeze.com.au/info/wind.asp &
History of weather discovery
www.seabreeze.com.au/Members/Content/Articles/Miscellaneous/A-history-of-weather-discovery_1216853.aspx As time allows, we'll publish more articles on things like the Coriolas effect, Hadley & Ferrel cells!
Enjoy .. Lozza
