economics and kiting

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brucex
brucex
QLD
701 posts
QLD, 701 posts
6 Oct 2008 6:14pm
Just been watching the buisness chanel on cable which has been annalysing the world credit crunch- they were make a few summaries

Petrol - should drop to $75 a barrel - means cheaper prices at the bowser
Interest rates will drop - means your home loan will be cheaper
The dollars is weakening and is at a 2 year low - means imported stuff - like kites will be more expensive - maybe buy a new kite before they go up more -

They are saying we are going to see a slow down caused by the recession in the US.

Interesting times ahead

user
user
WA
1140 posts
WA, 1140 posts
6 Oct 2008 5:43pm
A slow down??

More time to go kiting !
cwamit
cwamit
WA
1194 posts
WA, 1194 posts
6 Oct 2008 6:36pm
if credit is going to be more difficult to obtain, then that flows onto many many many things, regardless of lower interest rates and cheaper fuel.

interesting times indeed!
KiteAction
KiteAction
QLD
337 posts
QLD, 337 posts
6 Oct 2008 10:31pm
"economics and kiting" ???

Bruce only a buisness man would ever put those two words together! shame on you! lol

But unfortunately you are right the economy is changing and prices of kites like everything else are rising.

This means tougher times for both retailer and customer.(my only tip here is make sure you get a good trade in price on your old kite )

It may be time to evaluate what is important in your life and where you should spend your money...

From a kitesurfing and windsurfing retailer's perspective - my hope is.....

- The fact that the economy is going through some testing times and that borowing big $$$ is going to become even harder for all, will mean that people should second think that new $50,000 4WD drive or that lavish overseas holiday and insted choose to enjoy their local beaches and coastline soaking up the amazzingness of home that we call...Australia.

Kites may be your ticket to freedom in terms of little outlay for mega satisfaction!

Just remember once you have your wind power source - its all free!

As a rider and conscience consumer myself I know that I will be spending more of my time carving up the coast line with my kite and less time worring about my new plasma and if my car is as good as the Joneses.

See you on the water!

Regards
Luke
Kitehard
Kitehard
WA
2782 posts
WA, 2782 posts
7 Oct 2008 1:04am
Hi Guys,

The Aussie dollar is falling over in a big way, it dropped another 3 cents today OMFG!

This is sure to mean that prices will rise on most kite gear this year. I heard that two major brands have already raised their prices and that others are about to follow suit.

How far can the aussie dollar fall??? It could go further in which case, if you are thinking of grabbing some new gear, I'd do it like now! I think prices will be rising in the next week on many brands. This sucks but there is nothing we as retailers can do about it. I'd think we'll be seeing 10% price increases at a minimum as many of the orders were placed, and prices worked out when the dollar was at 95c. It's currently 74c and falling. Thats more than a 20% increase in price for the importers. I don't think anyone is going to just 'absorb' this price hike.

Brace yourselves!

Good winds,



brucex
brucex
QLD
701 posts
QLD, 701 posts
7 Oct 2008 7:56am
I have to agree with Darren - buy now before prices go up
The dollar went below 70c this morning ouch!!!!!!
This means that the next shippment your brands distribitutor will buy will cost them 20% more than it did when it was 95c

Luke makes some great points - once you have your kites it is all free
Fuel will be cheaper which means it will cost you less to drive to your favourite spot or do a road trip

PLUS airfares could drop as well -making that dream overseas trip more of a reality

We did an awesome downwinder on Sunday 25 km in good surf with 20 kts - all it cost was the fuel for the car shuttleand it was so much - I feel sorry for my friends who play golf and come home after forking out up to $100 to get frustrated duffing shots - give me a kite and a wave any day - nothin beats it!
I can't believe how lucky we are to have this sport!!!!!
O
O
VIC
118 posts
O O
VIC, 118 posts
7 Oct 2008 11:27am
Dont expect fuel to drop too much while our dollar continues to fall against the US dollar. That makes it more expensive to us to buy.

Great post Luke - I had been thinking the same, when it all goes pear shaped at least Ive got my kites!!
Supersane
Supersane
NSW
174 posts
NSW, 174 posts
7 Oct 2008 11:35am
Kitehard said...

This sucks but there is nothing we as retailers can do about it. I'd think we'll be seeing 10% price increases at a minimum as many of the orders were placed, and prices worked out when the dollar was at 95c. It's currently 74c and falling. Thats more than a 20% increase in price for the importers. I don't think anyone is going to just 'absorb' this price hike.

Brace yourselves!




Local brands will become more competitive, good for exporters...
RAL INN
RAL INN
SA
2898 posts
SA, 2898 posts
7 Oct 2008 11:51am
The Local brands (kites) are chinese or asian made and they deal in USD.

so No joy there.

bigmark100
bigmark100
NSW
584 posts
NSW, 584 posts
7 Oct 2008 12:50pm
Funny how when the au dollar was almost on par with the us dollar the brands were not exactly falling over each other to lower their prices....!!!

With the grim looking future ahead - I would not be spending my savings (or more credit) on new kites - rather save it for when you might need it.
Tough times ahead does not mean spend now worry later...



laurie
laurie
QLD
3902 posts
QLD, 3902 posts
7 Oct 2008 3:42pm
brucex said...
They are saying we are going to see a slow down caused by the recession in the US.


These same people have correctly predicted 15 of the last 2 recessions.

theDoctor
theDoctor
NSW
5786 posts
NSW, 5786 posts
7 Oct 2008 4:52pm
^^ you're a brave man bagging other peoples somewhat inaccurate predictions mr green arrow no show...
omega
omega
VIC
100 posts
VIC, 100 posts
7 Oct 2008 5:28pm
theDoctor said...

^^ you're a brave man bagging other peoples somewhat inaccurate predictions mr green arrow no show...


HAHAHA!! Thats Gold!
kiteboy dave
kiteboy dave
QLD
6525 posts
QLD, 6525 posts
7 Oct 2008 4:30pm
'O' is right don't expect fuel prices to drop much unless the dollar rebounds strongly against the US dollar.. most people don't realise just how much we were actually protected from crazy fuel prices by the high Aus dollar. It's all a world market and we import and export both crude and refined products.

/spent the last 4 years working at a Caltex refinery.
Blownaway
Blownaway
QLD
776 posts
QLD, 776 posts
7 Oct 2008 4:30pm
I just got a new kite

It truly is the answer to the economic problem
xtortya
xtortya
WA
322 posts
WA, 322 posts
7 Oct 2008 3:00pm
theDoctor said...

^^ you're a brave man bagging other peoples somewhat inaccurate predictions mr green arrow no show...

Best call ever.
Jimmyz
Jimmyz
NSW
446 posts
NSW, 446 posts
7 Oct 2008 6:42pm
Unfortunately due to the relatively inelastic (meaning, we're all addicted ) nature of kite sales I reckon its very possible that price will rise by a significant proportion of the change in the exchange rate... BUT you're all looking at the wrong exchange rate I believe!

I wouldn't think the AUD/USD exchange rate is too relevant for most brands as aren't most kites produced in and exported from the Asia region anyway? The AUD has fallen sharply to the USD, but not as sharply to the majority of Asian currencies, which have also fallen sharply to the USD... (so in effect the USD has made an upwards movement relative to all the others). I wouldn't worry too much about kites becoming more expensive, just as they didn't become much cheaper when the AUD was going for 90+ US cents, meaning that falls in the AUD's value in USD would not reduce kite companies revenue meaning that price rises as a direct result of this particular shift in exchange rates are unlikely (assuming that most of the kite companies are not US based) - fear not.
taxi
taxi
QLD
416 posts
QLD, 416 posts
7 Oct 2008 6:22pm
Yeah I totally agree with bigmark100
BrisKites
BrisKites
QLD
1293 posts
QLD, 1293 posts
7 Oct 2008 6:23pm
Dont want to burst your bubble Jimmyz but it's just not the case.
We import products from all over the world but the country of origin has no relevance.
We have only ever pay in 2 currencies, USD and EURO. Never anything else.

All brands will go up unless they were paid for before the AUD plummet.
user
user
WA
1140 posts
WA, 1140 posts
7 Oct 2008 4:50pm
So,the retailers are going to put prices up,because of the fall in the Dollar,caused by recession.

If there is a recession,who is going to fork out for these "soon to be overpriced" kites??

Most likely the other way round. Retailers will be struggling and have to reduce their margins and DROP prices to stay in business.

As Big Mark said,why did the retailers not drop their prices when the dollar was high??

Why can't they absorb most of the difference now?

Plus kites are so good now,you don't really have to update.
RAL INN
RAL INN
SA
2898 posts
SA, 2898 posts
7 Oct 2008 7:42pm
Kite prices did go up.

In kite company pricing, their kites went up in price.
Interestingly enough, they went up by a similar margin to the rise in the AUD.
So no net price effect.
what will happen now is we will see the flow on effect now that the AUD has dropped.

we will get last seasons real pricerise and then a proportion of the rise associated with the AUD going below 75cents.

Jimmyz
Jimmyz
NSW
446 posts
NSW, 446 posts
7 Oct 2008 8:15pm
BrisKites said...

Dont want to burst your bubble Jimmyz but it's just not the case.
We import products from all over the world but the country of origin has no relevance.
We have only ever pay in 2 currencies, USD and EURO. Never anything else.

All brands will go up unless they were paid for before the AUD plummet.



Uh, you didn't burst any bubble don't worry, you just corrected my assumptions, which I did mention I was unsure of.

No, of course the country of origin has relevance, unless they source their materials from the US the amount which they pay to produce the kite in terms of their own 'production' currency would remain constant (granted all else being equal; materials being sourced domestically). An increase in the value of $US would mean that the company could easily afford to sell it for less $US than previously because 1$US can now buy more of that original currency used to pay for the kite's production, meaning cheaper kites in terms of $US to the distributor.

The fact that the companies use $US and Euros is because they are more commonly accepted/watched/comparable/standard/stable currencies, I'd also imagine that much of the production takes place in subsidiaries owned by US corporations . If they continue to sell at the same price in USD as before then essentially they are making higher profit margins as their costs in terms of USD have decreased yet they are still selling at the same price in USD(which I am assuming to be fixed). If I wanted to speculate further it might be possible that some companies will lower their selling price in USD to avoid losing too much demand, moving back towards their original profit margins so still, I reckon it is still possible that price won't change dramatically. It also depends on things such as whether the kites were pre-paid by the company at a previously weaker USD or not and whether or not orders were prepaid by retailers to the kite companies.

I doubt there is any long term price rise here, price will likely adjust(ie: go down) if the USD stays so high for long enough, which itself is unlikely so... just make sure you don't buy any overpriced kites.
Jimmyz
Jimmyz
NSW
446 posts
NSW, 446 posts
7 Oct 2008 8:35pm
RAL INN said...

Kite prices did go up.

In kite company pricing, their kites went up in price.
Interestingly enough, they went up by a similar margin to the rise in the AUD.
So no net price effect.
what will happen now is we will see the flow on effect now that the AUD has dropped.

we will get last seasons real pricerise and then a proportion of the rise associated with the AUD going below 75cents.




What you are saying demonstrates what I was saying about how prices should remain constant in AUD provided profit margins remain the same.

So even if you don't understand what I'm saying above (badly worded sorry ) you can see the association. AUD UP vs USD ---> prices in USD UP. Hence AUD DOWN ---> prices in USD DOWN, in theory prices should remain the same in Australia, but if kite companies are anything like oil companies there will be a far greater lag time for price decrements than price increments; the longer they can keep it high, the more profit they make you see Dependent on whether or not retailers react by buying fewer kites in the knowledge that they are being 'screwed'...

So yes, in the short run kite prices will increase if retailers buy at new inflated prices, however in the long run they will return to their 'normal' price.
stabber
stabber
NSW
1114 posts
NSW, 1114 posts
7 Oct 2008 10:50pm
don't do what i did(oh you can't now) and forward hedge 1 million USD at 98c it only costs $50K AUD (pLus margin call((if required)). Then when our dollar drops(as it has) you(or in this case I!) clean up...

200K in 3 weeks...best payday I've ever had..

And Laurie banned my thread on financial advice earlier this year....Big mistake...huge!


Might buy 3 new kites....and give them to the poor.
wdric
wdric
NSW
1625 posts
NSW, 1625 posts
7 Oct 2008 10:55pm
stabber said...


Might buy 3 new kites....and give them to the poor.


I gotta start paying off a home loan from tommorrow so I will be poor
And since I live in newcastle you can save on delivery

Bigwavedave
Bigwavedave
QLD
2057 posts
QLD, 2057 posts
7 Oct 2008 11:48pm
I heard that 95.3% of statistics were made up on the spot.
sebol
sebol
WA
753 posts
WA, 753 posts
7 Oct 2008 10:05pm
Hey,Stabber,is there more people making or loosing money at the moment on the stock market?
As per usual in unstable markets a few people will make insane amounts of money with gambles that pay off
To advertise it as if it was a sure way to get cashed up is a #$#$% of s$%%t[}:)]
Some people may actually listen to you and do stupid things that they could regret a long time
Oh,don't think i am bitter because i didn't loose any cash
sandman
sandman
WA
432 posts
WA, 432 posts
7 Oct 2008 10:32pm
$2000 per kite divided by 2 seasons @ 75 sessions per year is $13 per session

$900 per board divided by 2 seasons @ 75 sessions per year is $6 per session

wetsuit, harness, about $600 is $4 per session

kiting costs $23 bucks a session + fuel... pretty good if you ask me

cruisy night at the pub with meal $60...nowhere near as exciting


global recession=flood of second hand kites with low demand = me smiling
Mr float
Mr float
NSW
3452 posts
NSW, 3452 posts
8 Oct 2008 8:38am
sandman said...

global recession=flood of second hand kites with low demand = me smiling


Disagree .Lots of people with no jobs and lots of time on their hand .They will be feeling depressed and the perfect antidote for that is kiting .There will be strong demand for cheap used kites .People will hang onto their kites for as long as possible so that demand will not be met , flea bay will be mainly trading old c shaped ****ters from 03 which will turn up on your beach with some numpty that cant afford lessons either .
There will be plenty of brand new cheap kites from the previous sseason which is actually the curent year (already happening ) so thats where the bargains will be
O
O
VIC
118 posts
O O
VIC, 118 posts
8 Oct 2008 11:24am
yeah I reckon more people will be holding onto their kites rather than updating. I like the point above^ if you have last year's kite you can still say its an 08!
stabber
stabber
NSW
1114 posts
NSW, 1114 posts
8 Oct 2008 7:20pm
hey wdric money's not the problem!
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