I have noticed that after years of observations that the BOM consistently forcast NE seabreezes for the hunter area in summer when there is a strong frontal system in the south and strong ridging high in the tasman back to NSW (like the one approaching this weekend) yet hedge there bets with the associated high temperature forcast .They usually get the temp right and the wind forcast wrong(specifically newcastle).For example in late Jan we had one of these systems to the south it was bloody hot with the NW wind pushing down the valley and keeping the seabreeze off shore .they got the temp right and the wind wrong .(again for newcastle) If the fronts stay well to the south with the stationary high in the tasman( but not ridging)they get the NE seabreeze forcast correct (Melbournes pain for days on end /our gain ,If its only a day or 2 of really hot for melb it indicates a faster moving system and hence the hunter valley westerly the next day here and no NE seabreeze)

It will be interesting to see what happens this weekend .BOM are going for hot temps with seabreezes in Newcastle .Will the seabreeze eventuate in newcastle ?my hunch is no(based on previous events), but wind guru who seems to be the most accurate say yes and the top temp around 30 degrees( so i'm gona hedge my bet for now . I reckon if your in the hunter valley drive to forster/tuncurry for a really good chance of NE (protected from the hunter valley westerlies ) you might even get it at hawks nest and norah head area (protected to a lessor degree also) if you stick around newcastle stockton is your best bet(as i reckon it'll have alot of northerly influence and nobby will be excluded) and it might do what windguru are predicting if we are lucky.It seems the later in the summer season we are, the lower the effect of the valley westerly wind

Perhaps the BOM marine forcast is for the ave of what they reckon will happen over the whole area(including bits mentioned above that are not effected by the valley westerly) including the area 60 nm seawards (ever noticed that the valley westerly keeps the seabreze just off shore) so if you draw a big block of that area the percentage that doesn't get it is only small so therefore doesn't get a mention.It's a large area going from seal rocks to broken bay and include the area 60 nm seaward so i suppose it makes sense that the forcast is based on the ave for that whole area and is not specific to newcastle which i think many of us novocastrians assume it would be for (judging by the dissapointed comments you regularly hear ,eg'what happend to that bloody NE seabreeze they forcast")

Ok Lac, I think you owe the BOM an apology this time! Twelve days of kitable N'easteries! I think that has to be a Newie record! (I am very tired)

Nerk said...

Ok Lac, I think you owe the BOM an apology this time! Twelve days of kitable N'easteries! I think that has to be a Newie record! (I am very tired)

no I don't .they still hedged their bets .temp vs NE wind .Does not add up

They were all correct on the NE .Winguru going with it confirmed .no wind guru no NE

BTW regarding records I am pretty sure that in season 00/01 or 01/02 we counted 85 kiiteable days in a row (el nino years)not complaining this year tho .Has been good and the ocassional decent wave .