Forums > Kitesurfing   Western Australia

Wind at Melville today

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Created by Swavek 1 month ago, 17 Oct 2020
Swavek
WA, 355 posts
17 Oct 2020 9:35PM
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Strange that the wind was pumping today at Garden Island, Safety Bay, and Roto but nothing at Melville. I wish I new more about the weather to not waste my time waiting for the wind to come (which it did the last few days, but not today).

Is it possible to deduce this based on the pressure charts and knowledge of weather/wind?

Nutdip
WA, 58 posts
17 Oct 2020 10:49PM
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It had a lot of south in it today. Maybe Melville is even more sh!t with south in it? Also, the easterly felt warm and moist so that could help explain why the sea breeze didn't penetrate too far inland.

davinchi
WA, 20 posts
18 Oct 2020 11:14AM
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Select to expand quote
Swavek said..
... Is it possible to deduce this based on the pressure charts and knowledge of weather/wind?


yes.. just start with looking at all the observations and forecast data/charts you can and soon enough you'll become an expert like many other "crusty old windsurfers"

- synoptic analysis:
www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml

- synoptic forecast (australian ACCESS model):
www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AWST&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

- sat viewer:
satview.bom.gov.au/

- ACCESS model, the link SimonM posted:
www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml?unit=p4&location=wa-per&tz=AWST

- ECMWF from windy.com:
www.windy.com/-32.021/115.825?-32.153,115.825,10,i:pressure,m:cLMajod

- MetEye from BoM:
www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
(short term underlying wind grids in MetEye will generally be from ACCESS or ECMWF at least until day 2, depending upon which model is verifying better on the day with some "forecaster tweeks" that may or may not represent reality at a given point. From day 3 to day 7 they may just be a consensus forecast between a number of different models with some "forecaster tweeks".

generally speaking ACCESS and ECMWF are the best performing models in the australian region. GFS (also available from windy.com and "other sources" does not consistently perform in Australia as well as ECMWF and ACCESS)

snalberski
WA, 748 posts
18 Oct 2020 11:19AM
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Swavek said..
Strange that the wind was pumping today at Garden Island, Safety Bay, and Roto but nothing at Melville. I wish I new more about the weather to not waste my time waiting for the wind to come (which it did the last few days, but not today).

Is it possible to deduce this based on the pressure charts and knowledge of weather/wind?


Looking at the bigger weather systems picture on Windy.com I find useful. Yesterday one system was feeding WA from the SW and another was feeding from the SE, converging on the coast line. This accounts for easterlies most of the day with a late and short submission by the easterlies to the system feeding the SWesterly, possibly bolstered by any seabreeze effect particular to WA. The conditions were pretty much what I expected for the coast but predicting inland is probably harder.
Regular study of the live wind/system conditions provided on Windy.com can provide a more complete forecast and the app actually provides computer generated for casting.

Swavek
WA, 355 posts
18 Oct 2020 2:09PM
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Thanks guys, might have to study it a bit more... Sounds like it is worth the effort to try to understand it.

wishy
WA, 1466 posts
21 Oct 2020 1:25PM
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Now that Freres pie shop is gone from Applecross, I don't ever kite the river anymore.
Their pies were absolutely world class, god only knows how many kg of butter per square inch they had in them.

MikeyG
WA, 144 posts
22 Oct 2020 11:12PM
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I can see the river from the top floor of our place and my observations in summary are... you can foil it nearly every day (always seems to be someone out), if it's a late breeze at the coast, it's likely to be light (less than 15 knots), if it's SSW, S, SSE or SE, the river is likely to be very light especially at Melville Beach Road.

tromes
6 posts
25 Oct 2020 10:56AM
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A basic rule of thumb is the more the morning wind is towards the East/NE (vs SE), the more difficult it will be for the seabreeze front to move inland, and therefore reach Melville.
Have in mind that the Easterlies will still be blowing but above the seabreeze front so there is really a battle between the two air masses.

But how strong the seabreeze is, and how quickly the front will move inland depends on so many parameters (like high clouds, wheat fields inland green, dry or harvested, temperature of the ocean vs inland...)
Late in the season, the seabreeze front may reach Scarborough and not even make it to Cottesloe, when on the other side, I have once witness a seabreze front reaching Meredin (few hundred kms inland) in the evening.
You get the best seabreeze in November/December when the ocean is still quite cold and the wheat crops still not harvested, with clear blue sky when you have high in the Great Southern Ocean Bight and on the Indian Ocean and a low forming in Australia, with the isobars kind of following the coast line, so the wind in teh morning is like SE in the SW seabreeze doesn't have to fight too much to move inland.
But the question whetehr it will reach Melville is into much more marginal conditions, which makes it quite tricky to predict... But you can only build your know how by recording the synoptic chart of the day, the overall conditions, and how good the seabreeze was in Melville.

This year, we are very lucky getting so much seabreeze That early in the season, but I have no clue why and why last season was so bad
El Nina??? Bushfire last year over east?

Aspiremr
WA, 98 posts
Wednesday , 18 Nov 2020 7:37PM
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I have never heard the state of crops in the wheatbelt as being a factor for when sea breezes come in.Is this for real, or a joke? If it's for real, can you tell me where to read and understand more about this please.

psychojoe
VIC, 983 posts
Friday , 20 Nov 2020 9:38AM
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"Predict Wind" is a brilliant app.
Try it.

Bit fishy
WA, 28 posts
Saturday , 21 Nov 2020 9:57PM
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My "predict wind" is
go to Safety bay avoid Melville beach . Great to learn , frustrating as all f... when you can get your sh.t together.

theDoctor
NSW, 5174 posts
Sunday , 23 Nov 2020 12:03AM
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Select to expand quote
Nutdip said..
It had a lot of south in it today. Maybe Melville is even more sh!t with south in it? Also, the easterly felt warm and moist so that could help explain why the sea breeze didn't penetrate too far inland.


Warm
Moist
Penetrate
... all in one post from someone going by the name Nutdip....

tromes
6 posts
Monday , 23 Nov 2020 6:00PM
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Select to expand quote
Aspiremr said..
I have never heard the state of crops in the wheatbelt as being a factor for when sea breezes come in.Is this for real, or a joke? If it's for real, can you tell me where to read and understand more about this please.


It is a real factor. Few years ago, the wheat belt was drench by the remaining of a cyclone around January from memory, so it was really green inland and we didn't get any seabreeze for more than a month.
Basically, the seabreeze is compensating all the air rising in the thermals inland, so read about thermals in flatlands and you will find out that yellow wheat fields are the best generators. The bush is very good as well and doesn't really get so green or get harvested, so one of the reason the seabreeze start earlier in the season in Gero and north of it.



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Forums > Kitesurfing   Western Australia


"Wind at Melville today" started by Swavek