Wind is supposed to swing around to the Nor'East tomorrow. Given what I saw this evening looking out over the break I'd say stay on standby for tomorrow mornings update... just saying.
I've been watching the forecast/maps for the last few days in anticipation, it seems to keep getting worse and worse but if it works anywhere it will be Gerroa
Don't be silly, nothing you can say will change the weather. The wheels are in motion, what it will do in Gerroa in 3 weeks and 3 days time is already locked in. If we knew exactly what each moderately-sized piece of atmosphere was doing right now and had a big enough computer the BOM would be able to tell you right now.
Ian, do you think it's feasible to do better predictions than the BOM if we only care about one metric, e.g. probability of seabreeze strength at 3pm being better than 18kts at one spot (say Gerroa/Kyeemagh). I would imagine it is, but I guess the question is how much better?
All we can go on is what the BOM gives us and read between the lines. Don't know what goes on in the BOM office but if they knew so many were hanging on whether the breeze was more likely to be 16 knots or 18 knots they might look harder at the model outputs and phrase the forecast appropriately. They were pretty spot on forecasting the southerly moving up the coast on Boxing day.
