Ever since I got some new gear a week or so ago, the wind has stopped...typical. I was that desperate that today I went out in the waves in probably 5-10kts of wind, turned out ok though got some sweet rides hahaha. Had to swim in though after chancing it one to many times.
I think air pressure systems are more important for generating seabreezes than sea temperatures, ie we need strong high pressure systems sitting out in the Tasman Sea, around Lord Howe Island and no bloody troughs sitting over us.
Mid next week is looking okay according to the synoptic charts. After that another crappy trough moves over to dump more rain.
Sea temp does help a lot though as getting the land/water temperature differential as large as possible is where it's at for maximum punch. As you say though you need the right pressure systems as well.