It will probably be crap but pt2

> 10 years ago
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Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14969 posts
QLD, 14969 posts
6 Aug 2010 4:56pm
tue. choowoo!
KenHo
KenHo
NSW
1353 posts
NSW, 1353 posts
6 Aug 2010 6:03pm
The only thing for sure, is that the forecast will change at least a hundred times between now and Tuesday.
The next week seems very dynamic with a series of fronts and lows.

Gotta be a crap shoot !!
Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14969 posts
QLD, 14969 posts
6 Aug 2010 6:16pm
you could be right, but i'll cling to it none the less.

tides in brizzy are .16m so no joy up here.
doodah
doodah
WA
301 posts
WA, 301 posts
6 Aug 2010 7:20pm
serious longshot but I applaude your optimism. If it comes through I'll be there
Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14969 posts
QLD, 14969 posts
8 Aug 2010 2:57pm
i hope the rain doesn't kill it. good to see some lows starting to come through though.
KenHo
KenHo
NSW
1353 posts
NSW, 1353 posts
8 Aug 2010 7:03pm
Well, it looks like I was wrong about the stability of that forecast.
It's starting to unravel a little now though.
I'm reading that as a fast moving change that does bugger all at this point.
Hope for all yer sakes I'm a chump.
Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14969 posts
QLD, 14969 posts
8 Aug 2010 8:34pm
hoping your wrong.

thursday looks more likely on the forecasts but tues if it fires is going to be a cracker. some of the models are showing 35+
KenHo
KenHo
NSW
1353 posts
NSW, 1353 posts
8 Aug 2010 10:35pm
I know, I'm being a negative Nellie, but until today, the pattern looked solid.
Suddenly it's changing, and showing a much shorter period of likely high wind, which is why I'm saying it's unravelling.
The water is cold, but will the land get warm enough to make a NE bust that hard ??
You might well get your big Wello Winter Westerly though !!

Gestalt said...

hoping your wrong.

thursday looks more likely on the forecasts but tues if it fires is going to be a cracker. some of the models are showing 35+


vando
vando
QLD
3419 posts
QLD, 3419 posts
8 Aug 2010 10:43pm
Gestalt said...

hoping your wrong.

thursday looks more likely on the forecasts but tues if it fires is going to be a cracker. some of the models are showing 35+


yer hard to beleave tue forecast but who knows.
Like you said ken i dont think its will be warm enough needs to be 28 imo before you get a decent seabreeze. but then there a pretty good squeeze between that high near NZ and that low coming through.
Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14969 posts
QLD, 14969 posts
9 Aug 2010 12:20am
but it's not a seabreeze, it's from a low.

i still think the rain may kill it but i'm hopefull it comes through, all of the models are saying yes so that is something.

@vando - see you thursday?

@ken - we need to get you up to brisvegas to experience the winter wonderland. high tide at wello on thurs would be a good time to attend.

Haircut
Haircut
QLD
6491 posts
QLD, 6491 posts
9 Aug 2010 7:36am
i'm hoping for something by mid arvo today in the south
KenHo
KenHo
NSW
1353 posts
NSW, 1353 posts
9 Aug 2010 7:58am
That's gonna be a bit tricky cos I'm in Atherton again for 2 weeks.
I'm doing as much work as I can in winter, so I can bludge off later in spring and summer.
The sun is shining, so I'm making hay.
I did get a really good look at VP and Wello from the air though as we flew past on Saturday.
There is a good body of water there, and it looked nice and blue and pretty as we flew by.
Not often that a commercial airline is so obliging for sight-seeing !!





Gestalt said...

but it's not a seabreeze, it's from a low.

i still think the rain may kill it but i'm hopefull it comes through, all of the models are saying yes so that is something.

@vando - see you thursday?

@ken - we need to get you up to brisvegas to experience the winter wonderland. high tide at wello on thurs would be a good time to attend.




Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14969 posts
QLD, 14969 posts
9 Aug 2010 12:36pm
looks like it's just gone north at the southern end. wonder if it's coming throug hearly or just a gust.

i'm out of phase with you ken, trying to get as much tow while works quiet. very early signs are there that this might not last much longer so i need to make the most of it.
KenHo
KenHo
NSW
1353 posts
NSW, 1353 posts
9 Aug 2010 3:47pm
Graph is matching the forecast nicely at this stage, which is promising.
Haircut
Haircut
QLD
6491 posts
QLD, 6491 posts
9 Aug 2010 3:50pm
It's becoming pretty windy here. If it's still ok in 20 mins I'm off to the shearwater for a couple of hours for some conveyor belt action
KenHo
KenHo
NSW
1353 posts
NSW, 1353 posts
9 Aug 2010 3:55pm
I hate you too.


Nah, no I don't.
Looks like I'm going to Hervey Bay for a few weeks late August to mid September, so I should catch up then.



Haircut said...

It's becoming pretty windy here. If it's still ok in 20 mins I'm off to the shearwater for a couple of hours for some conveyor belt action


Qlandr
Qlandr
QLD
103 posts
QLD, 103 posts
9 Aug 2010 8:52pm
It must be nice to still be considering sailing at 4pm in winter - I definately have to convince the better half we need to relocate closer to the water.

Tough decision pending with plenty of wind forecast: tue with rain, or thurs with flaky westerlies and sun. at least we have options

Haircut said...

It's becoming pretty windy here. If it's still ok in 20 mins I'm off to the shearwater for a couple of hours for some conveyor belt action


Haircut
Haircut
QLD
6491 posts
QLD, 6491 posts
9 Aug 2010 9:36pm

tomorrow
KenHo
KenHo
NSW
1353 posts
NSW, 1353 posts
9 Aug 2010 10:49pm
So, what happened, you goddamned hippy ??

Haircut said...


tomorrow


Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14969 posts
QLD, 14969 posts
9 Aug 2010 11:02pm
think i might pack the 4.7 just in case.
KenHo
KenHo
NSW
1353 posts
NSW, 1353 posts
10 Aug 2010 1:28am
Make a good brolly to shelter you from the rain anyway.

Gestalt said...

think i might pack the 4.7 just in case.


doodah
doodah
WA
301 posts
WA, 301 posts
10 Aug 2010 5:51am
Where are you guys heading... still the train?? Looks gusty as hell down there at the moment. I'll be at the goldy by about 1030 hopefully
KenHo
KenHo
NSW
1353 posts
NSW, 1353 posts
10 Aug 2010 8:15am
I dunno, low tide at lunchtime with a decent swell and a good north wind sounds like a recipe for Currumbin Soup to me.

Sailing the run-in tide there through the afternoon should be very good. Starting on a low tide means it's nice and easy to walk out to the wind and get well around the groyne.
Haircut
Haircut
QLD
6491 posts
QLD, 6491 posts
10 Aug 2010 8:53am
I'll most likely do the train, or possibly shearwater after low tide turns. I'll make my way to train after 11am.
Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14969 posts
QLD, 14969 posts
10 Aug 2010 9:25am
train for me too. thinking i'll be there between 11-12
doodah
doodah
WA
301 posts
WA, 301 posts
10 Aug 2010 7:29am
Starting to look a bit like a turd sandwich up this way
Gestalt
Gestalt
QLD
14969 posts
QLD, 14969 posts
10 Aug 2010 9:43am
i can't believe how gusty it is. 10-30 knots
doodah
doodah
WA
301 posts
WA, 301 posts
10 Aug 2010 8:22am
Heading off shortly. I'll be at the train by about 1030. Anyone keen to catch up for lunch if the rain sets in?? I need a back up plan to help avoid dissapointment
Richiefish
Richiefish
QLD
5612 posts
QLD, 5612 posts
10 Aug 2010 10:52am
.0954...meanwhile at Manly.....20 knot squalls followed by periods of 7 knots NE......waiting for improvement.
KenHo
KenHo
NSW
1353 posts
NSW, 1353 posts
10 Aug 2010 11:18am
I can only remember sailing a northerly driven by a low coming across the land once. It was not good. It was actually the remnants of a confused cyclone, possibly called Barry, which had come down through the Gulf and wandered inland until it decided to exit across Bundaberg to head out to sea again.
It was gusting 5-50kts, I think. I remember being on a 4.0 and massively disappointed.
Despite that, you will have more fun today than I will.
Rig a big board and a big cambered sail and you'll have a blast.


Gestalt said...

i can't believe how gusty it is. 10-30 knots


Haircut
Haircut
QLD
6491 posts
QLD, 6491 posts
10 Aug 2010 11:37am
totally honking for the last hour here in cooly
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