Slightly related: can anyone tell me why seabreeze's wind readings are consistently 3-4 knots higher than windy.com, the windy.af app, willy weather, etc

In my experience the Australian BOM and others are limited to providing forecasts for a wide area and a varied audience.

The only high resolution model I have found is ECMWF and readily available from windy.com

Windy is amazingly reliable and accurate. It sort of cheats by providing a wide wind range for each time slice. There's always a very good chance that the wind will fall somewhere within the predicted range.

That's sort of a good thing. With the right wing foiling gear and skills you can cover the entire predicted range so there's a very high chance of getting a session. It's even easier with kite foiling gear.

If you're talking about learning stuff so you can make your own forecasts, good luck with that. In my experience it's easy to know about normal patterns like how sea breezes work in your area, or cloud formations work with the local terrain, or whatever. I am sceptical about the ol' man of the sea who can predict the weather from the dangle of his left testicle.

This is one of my recent projects too (mostly for sailing, but also foiling), and have 2 books I've been working through that have been helpful. The first is a bit more basic and UK focused, the second is more technical and comprehensive, and seems to be the default reference for marine weather courses...

RYA Weather Handbook:
www.amazon.com/RYA-Weather-Handbook-Chris-Tibbs/dp/1910017140/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2MIH0B486I4O6&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.h53nTG-2v3gB-0TzwMwSfpKkSjSlyQltzYSS598EVztAl1NAMyWXsrneum-_4a9anAB616T27s8_g7JgJU4vHSLoYPk-AoR6jJsqHltMY3P4XCA_poXugBZ6LAC5elNEhPk82Ltoteg-T_FGD5mgqKTK9AvtkmDYy4DFXozHowhmWpTss6n1ikS7NW3Yv0hIfeuak9OPRsrg73rzxVZ9Dxrexu4PI7YEzVs1omN6NW8.BVDqt1e8qGGJq0r7w5Pv9QdjGYpZSVXkIbn_V0xFd4E&dib_tag=se&keywords=rya+weather+handbook&qid=1732024746&s=books&sprefix=rya+weather+handbook%2Cstripbooks%2C190&sr=1-1


Modern Marine Weather, 3rd Ed.:
www.amazon.com/Modern-Marine-Weather-Time-Honored-Traditional-dp-0914025589/dp/0914025589/ref=dp_ob_title_bk

Relapse said..

Doesn't cover Bom models but a really good overview of global weather models.

Good explanation of the various computer models. Which model is best depends a lot on the spot in my experience. On Cape Cod, which sticks out into the ocean, the higher resolution models usually under-predict the wind, since they over-estimate how much the wind drops close to land. On Cape Hatteras, the higher-resolution models seem to be more accurate, maybe because the land area is very narrow, and the gap to the main land is large.

All models I look at at a regular basis tend to underestimate thermals and local effects. At Kalmus on Cape Cod, we often get 10-15 mph more than the highest forecast if (a) the direction is WSW, (b) humidity is low (for Cape Cod), and (c) the difference between air and water temperature is small enough, or the predicted wind is strong (20+ knots). Sun also helps, although we sometimes get the WSW boost even on cloudy days. The model that often gets closest on WSW days is the IW-WRF model, which takes local historical data into account.

For late winter and spring in Corpus Christi, Texas, thermal forecasts are even easier: sunny and onshore winds = thermal boost, which can be 10 knots or more.

So if you have weather stations at your spot that measure the wind accurately, or get to play enough days on the water, check out the various model predictions and compare them to what's actually happening. With time, you can often learn which models tends to be best, and what factors (like wind direction, sun/clouds/humidity, temperatures, etc.) can be useful to modify the forecast.