12:58 PM Wed 22 Apr 2009 GMT
Although leg leader Telefonica Blue is being caught by the other three front runners, she is expected to extend on the final period of the race as she gets into a stronger wind pattern enabling her to stretch away.
The PredictWindmodel show the fleet on a beam reach in 16kt winds from a NE direction. With Telefonica Blue leading.
Over the next 24 hours they will get a first blast from a stronger wind system , and as the wind rotates into the south the yachts respond by heading in a more northerly direction.
Based on the PredictWindprognosis, the Expeditionprediction is that there will not be a change in the lead, and Telefonica Blue should hold her advantage through the fresh weather pattern, and then split away from the rest of the fleet to increase her lead out to about 30nm at the point the fleet approaches the Exclusion Zone.
(A Whale Exclusion zone has been set by organisers to keep the yachts north of Boston and the Volvo racers will approach the finish line from a northern direction, along the coast).
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At this stage it is beyond the capabilities of your humble scribe to route around the Exclusion Zone, and we cannot project a finish time, however race organisers expect the yachts to finish on Sunday morning (Local Time) and as can be seen from the exclusion zone location, will approach Boston from the North.
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The images used in this story have been generated by Expeditionwhich is a tactical and navigation software application which has been developed by veteran Volvo Ocean Race navigator and Whitbread winner, physicist Nick White, initially for his use in the 2001-2 Volvo Ocean Race with Team News Corp and the Stars & Stripes Americas Cup team.
Since then, Expeditionhas been continually refined by a core group of world-renowned navigators and two-time America's Cup winning navigator Peter Isler has consulted closely in the development of the system. Expedition supports more instrument systems, is easier to use and has the most powerful and useful functions for the racing navigator.
Expedition is now has PredictWind integrated into the application as an option for PredictWind subscribers.
The wind data and prognosis used to produce these images also uses software developed by PredictWind, an application developed by Jon Bilger a top NZ youth and Olympic sailor who turned his hand to wind and weather prediction, and helped Alinghi to their outstanding victories in the last two America's Cups.
Now that same technology is available to the weekend sailing and club racers, the cruising fraternity or professional sailors around the world. Select any region in the world of interest to you and PredictWindwill monitor the area for you and provide updated predictions on demand.
PredictWind is a subscription system, with a number of options. While some may feel the wind is free, the ability to get a five day detailed wind forecast for an area of interest creates great peace of mind, allowing forward planning and decision making to be made with some certainty. The time and money saved through being able to work with a high degree of confidence, is more than offset by the relatively small cost of the subscription.
But don't take our word for it, get PredictWindnow and have a 30 day trial for free, and see for yourself.
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com
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