Volvo Ocean Race finish time stretches, food supplies short on Leg 5

9:55 PM Sun 22 Mar 2009 GMT

'Arve Roaas holding an octopus, onboard Ericsson 3, on leg 5 of the Volvo Ocean Race, from Qingdao to Rio de Janeiro. Might look pretty good for the pot if weather predictions are correct.' Gustav Morin/Ericsson Racing Team/Volvo Ocean Race &copy

Predictions made four days ago that the Volvo Ocean race would finish on 24 March UTC, now appear to be rather optimistic as the leaders are beset by light winds which will last all the way to the finish off Rio de Janeiro.

Sail-World has used weather data supplied by PredictWindand course optimisation software from Expeditionto see how the remainder of Leg 5 shapes up, and whether there will be any lead changes. Predictwind is now supplying seven days of data, however this can change as the movement and path of weather systems in the area alter.

Previously the joint application was showing patchy winds initially but with stronger breezes later in the leg. Those winds are not now predicted to arrive and the effect will be a delay of at least 24 hours for the finish, and on the yachts means that food will be severely rationed for a leg that was said by organisers to take 34 days, and is now in its 37th day and looks likely to run to 40 days.

The race continues to be led by Ericsson 3, which was late to start Leg 5 by seven hours after being forced to undertake repairs in Taiwan for two weeks on Leg 4 to Qingdao. She made a bold move on Leg 5 after the first scoring gate (where she was second) and leapt into a 100nm lead which she has defended since.

Our updated prognosis shows the three leading boats concertinaing over the next four days, but the on the water result shows now change in placings.

Below:Actual placings at 0700hrs (NZT this morning, 23 March), or 1900hrs on 22 March UTC

Actual positions at 1800hrs on 22 March UTC - Volvo Ocean Race, Leg 5 - Predictwind.com-iexpedition.org Click Here to view large photo

Below:Actual placings at 0700hrs (NZT this morning, 23 March), or 1900hrs on 22 March UTC

Actual positions at 1800hrs on 22 March UTC showing optimised courses - Volvo Ocean Race, Leg 5 - Predictwind.com-iexpedition.org Click Here to view large photo

Below:Projected positions close to the finish line at 1300hrs NZT 26 March or 0100hrs on 26 March UTC. Ericsson 3 is expected to finish an hour or two after this time inside the harbour at Rio de Janeiro

Prognosis close to finish of Leg 5 0100hrs on 26 March UTC with leaders finishing in light (10kt) tail winds - Volvo Ocean Race, Leg 5. The race actually finishes inside the harbour at Rio de Janeiro - Predictwind.com-iexpedition.org Click Here to view large photo

Day by day progress projections

Below:Projected positions at 0700hrs NZT 23 March or 1800hrs on 22 March UTC

Prognosis at 1800hrs on 22 March UTC showing current position and light winds - Volvo Ocean Race, Leg 5 - Predictwind.com-iexpedition.org Click Here to view large photo

Below:Projected positions at 0700hrs NZT 24 March or 1800hrs on 23 March UTC

Prognosis at 1800hrs on 23 March UTC showing projected position and light winds - Volvo Ocean Race, Leg 5 - Predictwind.com-iexpedition.org Click Here to view large photo

Below:Projected positions at 0700hrs NZT 25 March or 1800hrs on 24 March UTC

Prognosis at 1800hrs on 24 March UTC showing projected position and light winds - Volvo Ocean Race, Leg 5 - Predictwind.com-iexpedition.org Click Here to view large photo

Below:Projected positions at 0700hrs NZT 26 March or 1800hrs on 25 March UTC

Prognosis at 1800hrs on 25 March UTC showing projected position and light winds - Volvo Ocean Race, Leg 5 - Predictwind.com-iexpedition.org Click Here to view large photo

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The images used in this story have been generated by Expeditionwhich is a tactical and navigation software application which has been developed by veteran Volvo Ocean Race navigator and Whitbread winner, physicist Nick White, initially for his use in the 2001-2 Volvo Ocean Race with Team News Corp and the Stars & Stripes Americas Cup team.

Since then, Expeditionhas been continually refined by a core group of world-renowned navigators and two-time America's Cup winning navigator Peter Isler has consulted closely in the development of the system. Expedition supports more instrument systems, is easier to use and has the most powerful and useful functions for the racing navigator.

Expedition is now has PredictWind integrated into the application as an option for PredictWind subscribers.

The wind data and prognosis used to produce these images also uses software developed by PredictWind, an application developed by Jon Bilger a top NZ youth and Olympic sailor who turned his hand to wind and weather prediction, and helped Alinghi to their outstanding victories in the last two America's Cups.

Now that same technology is available to the weekend sailing and club racers, the cruising fraternity or professional sailors around the world. Select any region in the world of interest to you and PredictWindwill monitor the area for you and provide updated predictions on demand.

PredictWind is a subscription system, with a number of options. While some may feel the wind is free, the ability to get a five day detailed wind forecast for an area of interest creates great peace of mind, allowing forward planning and decision making to be made with some certainty. The time and money saved through being able to work with a high degree of confidence, is more than offset by the relatively small cost of the subscription.

But don't take our word for it, get PredictWindnow and have a 30 day trial for free, and see for yourself.

by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com