Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...

The Great Battery Conjob Exposed

Reply
Created by Crusoe Two weeks ago, 2 Feb 2019
Crusoe
QLD, 850 posts
2 Feb 2019 6:48PM
Thumbs Up

Read this in another place. But WTF is going on in SA. Do they still think the king has clothes on.

To keep the subsidies flowing and the public hoodwinked, green-rent-seekers have peddled the delusion that the intermittency of solar/wind can be solved with ''big batteries''.

This conjob was first sold in South Australia, as with their experiment of a 50% Renewable Energy Target descending into a costly farce, and to cover-up the fact they needed spend several hundred million on emergency diesel generators to keep the lights on just before the state election, with Hollywood fanfare SA announced they were installing ''the world's largest battery'' to save the day. And unsurprisingly, the green useless idiots of the left have swallowed this hook, line and sinker - as rent seekers continued to go laughing to the bank to cash their millions from subsidies.

Well the performance of the ''world's largest battery'' last Thursday exposed what a complete con job it's been - and delusion that we can power our economy on solar panels, wind turbines and big batteries is as dangerous to the economy as rabies is in a dog. Let's look at the evidence from 24th Jan ...As wind power collapsed into the afternoon, prices in South Australia surged to $14,500 Mwh (they averaged around $40 Mwh before all these 'cheap' renewables flooded into the grid) at around 4.30pm ''the world's biggest battery'' started to dribble in 30MW to the grid.

The 30MW was less than 1% of South Australia's total demand, and less than 0.1% of the National grid's demand. The world's biggest battery continued to dribble out around 30MW until 7.30pm, then it ran flat, rendering it completely useless as peak demand hit at 7.30pm.

Meanwhile the emergency diesel generators (chewing through a reported 80,000 litres of diesel an hour) were doing the real work in SA, pumping out over 400MW at a time on demand - and they continued to so as demand peaked at 7.30pm, when the world's largest battery had given up the ghost. So at peak demand, in the renewables paradise of South Australia, 97% of their electricity was coming from fossil fuels.

Over the afternoon, I estimate the ''world's biggest battery'' delivered only around 100 Mwh of electricity - compared to 2000Mwh by the diesel generators. The facts should be clear from the evidence that it's a dangerous delusion that Australia can run the economy with solar/wind backed up by big batteries. But sadly once leftists have been radicalised by green propaganda - evidence, engineering & economics no longer matter, because their belief is a semi-religious one based on feelings and emotions and their minds are closed to rational thoughts and logic.

Mr Milk
NSW, 1400 posts
2 Feb 2019 7:59PM
Thumbs Up

The battery isn't meant to cover the shortfall in generation when there is no wind.
It is there to provide grid stability.
The interconnector to Vic is supposed to provide the backup when SA runs low on generation.

kato
VIC, 2388 posts
2 Feb 2019 8:27PM
Thumbs Up

Select to expand quote
Crusoe said..
Read this in another place. But WTF is going on in SA. Do they still think the king has clothes on.

To keep the subsidies flowing and the public hoodwinked, green-rent-seekers have peddled the delusion that the intermittency of solar/wind can be solved with ''big batteries''.

This conjob was first sold in South Australia, as with their experiment of a 50% Renewable Energy Target descending into a costly farce, and to cover-up the fact they needed spend several hundred million on emergency diesel generators to keep the lights on just before the state election, with Hollywood fanfare SA announced they were installing ''the world's largest battery'' to save the day. And unsurprisingly, the green useless idiots of the left have swallowed this hook, line and sinker - as rent seekers continued to go laughing to the bank to cash their millions from subsidies.

Well the performance of the ''world's largest battery'' last Thursday exposed what a complete con job it's been - and delusion that we can power our economy on solar panels, wind turbines and big batteries is as dangerous to the economy as rabies is in a dog. Let's look at the evidence from 24th Jan ...As wind power collapsed into the afternoon, prices in South Australia surged to $14,500 Mwh (they averaged around $40 Mwh before all these 'cheap' renewables flooded into the grid) at around 4.30pm ''the world's biggest battery'' started to dribble in 30MW to the grid.

The 30MW was less than 1% of South Australia's total demand, and less than 0.1% of the National grid's demand. The world's biggest battery continued to dribble out around 30MW until 7.30pm, then it ran flat, rendering it completely useless as peak demand hit at 7.30pm.

Meanwhile the emergency diesel generators (chewing through a reported 80,000 litres of diesel an hour) were doing the real work in SA, pumping out over 400MW at a time on demand - and they continued to so as demand peaked at 7.30pm, when the world's largest battery had given up the ghost. So at peak demand, in the renewables paradise of South Australia, 97% of their electricity was coming from fossil fuels.

Over the afternoon, I estimate the ''world's biggest battery'' delivered only around 100 Mwh of electricity - compared to 2000Mwh by the diesel generators. The facts should be clear from the evidence that it's a dangerous delusion that Australia can run the economy with solar/wind backed up by big batteries. But sadly once leftists have been radicalised by green propaganda - evidence, engineering & economics no longer matter, because their belief is a semi-religious one based on feelings and emotions and their minds are closed to rational thoughts and logic.


By this rant you just don't understand how a battery system or a de centralised network functions. Probably never will. Understand this. If the Right is wrong the result is we kill this planet.
If the left is wrong we change to a sustainable energy source and jobs will disappear in the coal/oil industry.
Make ya bets but remember your betting your planet

Tonz
217 posts
2 Feb 2019 5:36PM
Thumbs Up

Select to expand quote
Crusoe said..
Read this in another place. But WTF is going on in SA. Do they still think the king has clothes on.

To keep the subsidies flowing and the public hoodwinked, green-rent-seekers have peddled the delusion that the intermittency of solar/wind can be solved with ''big batteries''.

This conjob was first sold in South Australia, as with their experiment of a 50% Renewable Energy Target descending into a costly farce, and to cover-up the fact they needed spend several hundred million on emergency diesel generators to keep the lights on just before the state election, with Hollywood fanfare SA announced they were installing ''the world's largest battery'' to save the day. And unsurprisingly, the green useless idiots of the left have swallowed this hook, line and sinker - as rent seekers continued to go laughing to the bank to cash their millions from subsidies.

Well the performance of the ''world's largest battery'' last Thursday exposed what a complete con job it's been - and delusion that we can power our economy on solar panels, wind turbines and big batteries is as dangerous to the economy as rabies is in a dog. Let's look at the evidence from 24th Jan ...As wind power collapsed into the afternoon, prices in South Australia surged to $14,500 Mwh (they averaged around $40 Mwh before all these 'cheap' renewables flooded into the grid) at around 4.30pm ''the world's biggest battery'' started to dribble in 30MW to the grid.

The 30MW was less than 1% of South Australia's total demand, and less than 0.1% of the National grid's demand. The world's biggest battery continued to dribble out around 30MW until 7.30pm, then it ran flat, rendering it completely useless as peak demand hit at 7.30pm.

Meanwhile the emergency diesel generators (chewing through a reported 80,000 litres of diesel an hour) were doing the real work in SA, pumping out over 400MW at a time on demand - and they continued to so as demand peaked at 7.30pm, when the world's largest battery had given up the ghost. So at peak demand, in the renewables paradise of South Australia, 97% of their electricity was coming from fossil fuels.

Over the afternoon, I estimate the ''world's biggest battery'' delivered only around 100 Mwh of electricity - compared to 2000Mwh by the diesel generators. The facts should be clear from the evidence that it's a dangerous delusion that Australia can run the economy with solar/wind backed up by big batteries. But sadly once leftists have been radicalised by green propaganda - evidence, engineering & economics no longer matter, because their belief is a semi-religious one based on feelings and emotions and their minds are closed to rational thoughts and logic.


and where do you get this information from?

Carantoc
NSW, 4050 posts
2 Feb 2019 8:42PM
Thumbs Up

Problem is Kato, those diesel generators produced more CO2 running for a short period to produce back-up power than the gas ones that got shut down do all year.

By shutting down the gas generators simply to lift the relative % of renewables solely for political one-up-manship and to claim you have delivered a higher % of renewables than anyone else, the end result has been not only more expensive and less reliable power, but also more CO2, not less.

Shutting down your gas generator and then relying on diesel and dirty brown Victorian coal isn't "changing to a sustainable energy source". It is just producing more pollution than you did before but hiding it behind a picture of a shiny giant battery.

Harrow
NSW, 2485 posts
2 Feb 2019 9:36PM
Thumbs Up

Select to expand quote
Mr Milk said..
The battery isn't meant to cover the shortfall in generation when there is no wind.
It is there to provide grid stability.
The interconnector to Vic is supposed to provide the backup when SA runs low on generation.

Problem is that VIC and SA manage to peak at the same time often enough for it to be a problem. The new interconnector planned between SA and NSW is going to be a big help in this regard, but following the recent retirement of Hazelwood in VIC and with the upcoming retirement of Liddell in NSW, it's all gonna have to trickle down from QLD where they still have a relatively young fleet of coal power stations.

Snowy 2.0 seems a great idea to me. Mass pump/storage smack bang in the middle of the national grid.

nnnbrewery
NSW, 63 posts
2 Feb 2019 9:36PM
Thumbs Up

The battery is an enormous success. A quote from a Tony Seba presentation slide:

"Tesla's Battery with just 2% of the FCAS (Frequency Control & Ancillary Services) capacity has taken 55% market share while slashing wholesale prices (and gas FCAS revenues) by 90%."

The battery is not there for peak demand, it's there for grid stabilisation.

The Diesel generators, on the other hand, were deployed precisely to meet peak demand. The expectation is that they should not be switched on very often. So... when the demand couldn't be met by the available generators (coal included, because there were a number of very big failures there), the diesel generators were turned on.

There are studies that say we can go to more than 50% renewables without any additional storage, but of course we will need more storage longer term.

I guess this has become a bit of a religious debate for some... you will seek out and agree with the commentators that match your own world view, and poor scorn on the others.

harry potter
VIC, 2497 posts
3 Feb 2019 7:08AM
Thumbs Up

Select to expand quote
Mr Milk said..
The battery isn't meant to cover the shortfall in generation when there is no wind.
It is there to provide grid stability.
The interconnector to Vic is supposed to provide the backup when SA runs low on generation.


Unfortunately over here in Vic we also have a leftist green influenced government who has shut power stations in the persuit of renewables ... we also now have rolling " brown outs " .. and fields of diesel generators pumping out pollution at a massive cost.

boofta
NSW, 117 posts
3 Feb 2019 8:56AM
Thumbs Up

Its the greeny dream that really costs.
Last Thursday's power COST surge will be passed onto every Victorian consumer at average $500.
The days power bill for Victoria was $700 million, this is divided into all consumers bills.
That $700 million should have been spent building or refurbishing proper generators.
This is how it works greeny's , the power is provided to consumers via a government contract.
That contract allows the providers to recover their costs plus a fixed margin of profit.
So last Thursday you will make up the $700 million on your bills, congrats you have saved the planet.
Now think about how you will find $500 dollars to pay for saving the planet, which probably
increased CO2 as well because they fired up diesel generators that you all voted for, go greeny's!

Mr Milk
NSW, 1400 posts
3 Feb 2019 9:48AM
Thumbs Up

Can you back that $500/customer number up with evidence?

Back of the envelope calculation is $14000/MW peak price = $14/kWh.
Say the surge price was maintained for 4 hrs =$56

Against that, most of the electricity in the market is provided on long term fixed prices. There is a market in electricity futures which allows retailers to hedge their exposure to price spikes. ie A financial mechanism to stabilise price around an average.

Finally, why haven't you mentioned the much greater number of days during the year when the wholesale price of electricity is about $40-60/MWh? On your logic, that should be saving consumers $ hundreds.

Mr Milk
NSW, 1400 posts
3 Feb 2019 10:49AM
Thumbs Up

Select to expand quote
harry potter said..

Unfortunately over here in Vic we also have a leftist green influenced government who has shut power stations in the persuit of renewables ... we also now have rolling " brown outs " .. and fields of diesel generators pumping out pollution at a massive cost.





The government sold off the power stations years ago. They haven't shut any.

If you are actually interested in the facts about CO2 emission when various fuels are burned to make electricity, a quick Sunday morning Google gave me this page from the USA government.

www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=73&t=11

You can see that diesel produces about 50% more CO2 than gas. Coal is another 30% on top of that, but gets more complicated because it has water content that results in wasted energy. The point of the diesel generators is that the capital cost is lower than for a gas plant. And that should be a point in their favour for all you people who just want cheap power.



Select to expand quote
Harrow said..
Problem is that VIC and SA manage to peak at the same time often enough for it to be a problem. The new interconnector planned between SA and NSW is going to be a big help in this regard, but following the recent retirement of Hazelwood in VIC and with the upcoming retirement of Liddell in NSW, it's all gonna have to trickle down from QLD where they still have a relatively young fleet of coal power stations.

Snowy 2.0 seems a great idea to me. Mass pump/storage smack bang in the middle of the national grid.






And that is something I have said for years now in response to people who claim that you can go off grid with a solar system. We all live in the SE corner of the country with the same cloudy weeks in winter so all those home batteries go flat together.
The solution is to bring in solar from the inland tropics using a much bigger stronger grid and storage. Snowy 2.0 might do part of it, along with some of the other 20 000+ sites for pumped hydro that have been identified around the country.

bazz61
QLD, 1897 posts
3 Feb 2019 11:26AM
Thumbs Up

Who actually privitised the energy market .. left or right ..? because this is the root cause of the problem , and now big business has closed down power stations which could have been kept running for a few more years untill new ones built ..they have no intention of building new power stations the shortage of power means more profit , and lets not forget it was the Liberals in SA that sold of the power years ago ... and now want to sell off the generators again and the battery to their big business mates nodoubt in return for donations for election funding , so this rant blaming lefties is crap .

quikdrawMcgraw
830 posts
3 Feb 2019 9:38AM
Thumbs Up

Labor did it

boofta
NSW, 117 posts
3 Feb 2019 2:16PM
Thumbs Up

And labour and the greens will finish the job on all reliable generation.

It costs heaps for electricity when supply is intermittent, always will
be and will become dearer as each generator expires or is closed.

It's okay though greeny's , we just borrow more for our grandchildren
to pay off, and save their planet, but can they afford your misguided AGW religion.

How many hours was the surge price? It's almost daily at different times.

kato
VIC, 2388 posts
3 Feb 2019 2:23PM
Thumbs Up

Jeff Kennet in Vic. Lib
Note that the reason for the brown outs was ,2 of the turbines were down for maintenance.
Hazelwood was closed as it was so full of micro cracking in the pipes that is was no longer safe without a complete refit. Ever seen a steam pipe go perhaps some of you should work at these places.
BTW my power bill is still under $1 K for the year. Ain't solar great

Macroscien
QLD, 4572 posts
3 Feb 2019 1:26PM
Thumbs Up

If think that battery problem will be resolved in a completely different way.Let's imagine then in 10-20 years time you have only electric vehicles driving on our roads.5 mln vehicles with average battery capacity 100 kWh.Some vehicles on the road and other parked and connected to the grid.Now having this big battery you could not only buy power from the grid when is cheap but also sell back when is most expensive. So in the standard condition, you will charge your car at night at 10c per kWh and of the following afternoon, the electricity prices jump to 50c your car will sell back to the grid at profit.Then most homes may have solar panels on the roof too and domestic type battery. The stationary battery could be much cheaper than EV battery.As much as 10x cheaper per kW because you don't need a battery that is very light build. Smart grid may then decide to purchase electricity from those millions of home at peak load.As to Tesla battery power bank installed in SA - it may serve as a smart demonstration but for real effect, we need a completely different type of batteries that Tesla is using. Instead of relying on laptop batteries ( as Tesla do) another type of high-temperature molten salt batteries are designed for stationary use -as there are very heavy, not portable but up to 100x cheaper per kWh then Telsa batteries.

kato
VIC, 2388 posts
3 Feb 2019 3:55PM
Thumbs Up

bobajob
QLD, 1294 posts
3 Feb 2019 3:20PM
Thumbs Up

Select to expand quote
Macroscien said..
If think that battery problem will be resolved in a completely different way.Let's imagine then in 10-20 years time you have only electric vehicles driving on our roads.5 mln vehicles with average battery capacity 100 kWh.Some vehicles on the road and other parked and connected to the grid.Now having this big battery you could not only buy power from the grid when is cheap but also sell back when is most expensive. So in the standard condition, you will charge your car at night at 10c per kWh and of the following afternoon, the electricity prices jump to 50c your car will sell back to the grid at profit.Then most homes may have solar panels on the roof too and domestic type battery. The stationary battery could be much cheaper than EV battery.As much as 10x cheaper per kW because you don't need a battery that is very light build. Smart grid may then decide to purchase electricity from those millions of home at peak load.As to Tesla battery power bank installed in SA - it may serve as a smart demonstration but for real effect, we need a completely different type of batteries that Tesla is using. Instead of relying on laptop batteries ( as Tesla do) another type of high-temperature molten salt batteries are designed for stationary use -as there are very heavy, not portable but up to 100x cheaper per kWh then Telsa batteries.


Like this?

Ian K
NSW, 2769 posts
4 Feb 2019 1:03AM
Thumbs Up

The consumer price is buffered so of course when it gets a bit hot everyone cranks the AC to the max and we run out of power. What a stupid system! Supply and demand should be felt by the person with a finger on the switch.

www.accenture.com/us-en/blogs/blogs-european-utilities-demand-dynamic-pricing

FormulaNova
NSW, 7865 posts
4 Feb 2019 6:42AM
Thumbs Up

Select to expand quote
Ian K said..
The consumer price is buffered so of course when it gets a bit hot everyone cranks the AC to the max and we run out of power. What a stupid system! Supply and demand should be felt by the person with a finger on the switch.

www.accenture.com/us-en/blogs/blogs-european-utilities-demand-dynamic-pricing


I thought I read somewhere that aircon units now have some control in them where they can be switched off by energy suppliers as required. I can't see that feature being a great seller if its optional.

I have a problem with the whole concept of privatising energy generation and then making it dynamic pricing. What is to stop the behavior we saw recently where companies can abstain from providing energy and then when the price goes up suddenly making it available?

evlPanda
NSW, 8591 posts
4 Feb 2019 9:33AM
Thumbs Up

I just want to repeat this, because obviously it needs to be repeated, perhaps indefinitely, judging by the number of 911 and Flat Earth posts that still abound:


Select to expand quote
Mr Milk said... The battery is not there for peak demand, it's there for grid stabilisation.



The battery is not there for peak demand, it's there for grid stabilisation.
The battery is not there for peak demand, it's there for grid stabilisation.
The battery is not there for peak demand, it's there for grid stabilisation.

Select to expand quote
...evidence, engineering & economics no longer matter, because their belief is a semi-religious one based on feelings and emotions and their minds are closed to rational thoughts and logic.


You should start with a basic understanding of what it is you are talking about, else you look a complete fool.

nnnbrewery
NSW, 63 posts
4 Feb 2019 9:45AM
Thumbs Up

There's always a lot of bollocks spewed forth regarding the massive wholesale spot prices. The $14K is for a 5 minute interval (or may be for multiple I guess). That's almost irrelevant to you as a consumer. What's relevant is the averaged price over time. If you really want to look, here it is:

www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/annual-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices

boofta
NSW, 117 posts
4 Feb 2019 11:07AM
Thumbs Up

Thanks for the figures
The cost has more than doubled over the past 10 years as intermittent power has come on line.
What does that prove
It's stupid costly, and unsustainable to rely on intermittent power sources.

Hardcarve1
QLD, 405 posts
4 Feb 2019 10:21AM
Thumbs Up

Select to expand quote
evlPanda said..
I just want to repeat this, because obviously it needs to be repeated, perhaps indefinitely, judging by the number of 911 and Flat Earth posts that still abound:



Mr Milk said... The battery is not there for peak demand, it's there for grid stabilisation.




The battery is not there for peak demand, it's there for grid stabilisation.
The battery is not there for peak demand, it's there for grid stabilisation.
The battery is not there for peak demand, it's there for grid stabilisation.


...evidence, engineering & economics no longer matter, because their belief is a semi-religious one based on feelings and emotions and their minds are closed to rational thoughts and logic.



You should start with a basic understanding of what it is you are talking about, else you look a complete fool.


Honest question but why do we need
"grid stabilisation"

Is this due to the lack of power generation for base load or is this to minimize the sudden turning on of alternative power sources.
Does nuclear, gas or coal need this.

boofta
NSW, 117 posts
4 Feb 2019 11:26AM
Thumbs Up

2019/01/24 the date
104.02 116.63 100.05 110.45 3359.82 5303.31 07.88 89.12 3377.97 5331.69
Daily average figures across the states, a couple of big numbers especially the renewable believer states.

You will all pay extra for your beliefs, and please stop blaming the faults with the remaining generators.
The problem of increasing costs is caused by the religious non repairing/maintaining/replacing generators.
Then hoping intermittent power will replace fossil fuelled generation, it can't, won't work, it's delusion.

paulyNOR
WA, 47 posts
4 Feb 2019 8:40AM
Thumbs Up

Good to see people are interested in the Industry I work for

If you wish to educate yourself refer to the following websites and report.

Main site

aemo.com.au/

Historic data for South Australia

www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/SA_Advisory/2017/South-Australian-Historical-Market-Information-Report-2017.pdf

Real time dashboard

www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard

paulyNOR
WA, 47 posts
4 Feb 2019 8:49AM
Thumbs Up

You can download historical market data prices / demand from here

www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#aggregated-data

Enjoy

Chris6791
WA, 3110 posts
4 Feb 2019 9:54AM
Thumbs Up

I'd just be happy if the could keep the power supply at 50 hertz so my bedside clock isn't now running 7 minutes fast.

nnnbrewery
NSW, 63 posts
4 Feb 2019 1:35PM
Thumbs Up

Select to expand quote
boofta said..
Thanks for the figures
The cost has more than doubled over the past 10 years as intermittent power has come on line.
What does that prove
It's stupid costly, and unsustainable to rely on intermittent power sources.


correlation != causation

The effects of privatisation have come on line over the last decade also. I would look there for your large increase in prices rather than renewables. Privatising a natural monopoly never ends well for the consumer.

Renewables + storage are cheaper than new coal generation. In some markets they are cheaper than existing coal generation. Eventually it will be just be too damn expensive to run those coal generators and they will all shut. That may be multiple decades away, or just 1. Don't be afraid...

Little Jon
NSW, 1597 posts
4 Feb 2019 2:02PM
Thumbs Up

Renewables seem like a fast way to the third world, no industry no jobs
www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-02/alcoa-curtails-production-at-portland-smelter/8085840

Mr Milk
NSW, 1400 posts
4 Feb 2019 2:06PM
Thumbs Up

Select to expand quote
Chris6791 said..
I'd just be happy if the could keep the power supply at 50 hertz so my bedside clock isn't now running 7 minutes fast.


Is that a battery clock?



Subscribe
Reply

Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...


"The Great Battery Conjob Exposed" started by Crusoe