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Melbourne to Hobart next week

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Created by Donk107 2 months ago, 6 Jul 2018
Donk107
TAS, 1886 posts
6 Jul 2018 5:57AM
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Hi all

3 mates of mine are bringing a Walker H28 from Melbourne to Hobart and planning to leave early next week

Any thoughts on the forecast and what route would you take

Regards Don

lydia
642 posts
6 Jul 2018 7:05AM
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Don
You need a faster boat if it is next week.
There looks to be two distinct windows next week if you are coming down the east coast.
Sunday pm to Wednesday am with stop of a day at say Cape Portland or Waterhouse island on late Tuesday night as after the corner is crap for a day.
West coast go across the Stanley and wait then should have a good run all the way but will be a strong breeze but not crazy.
If you want a more detailed analysis let me know.

crustysailor
VIC, 593 posts
6 Jul 2018 4:53PM
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Hi Don,

out of interest, whats the name of the Walker H28?

Donk107
TAS, 1886 posts
6 Jul 2018 7:01PM
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crustysailor said..
Hi Don,

out of interest, whats the name of the Walker H28?



Hi Crusty

She is Driftwood

Hayden's (HG02) old boat

A mate of mine from down here has bought her off Hayden

Regards Don

lydia
642 posts
6 Jul 2018 5:33PM
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Donk107 said..
Hi all

3 mates of mine are bringing a Walker H28 from Melbourne to Hobart and planning to leave early next week

Any thoughts on the forecast and what route would you take

Regards Don


Definitely looking like West coast leaving late Monday early Tuesday.
Nothing really from Tuesday to Friday.
Need plenty of diesel

Donk107
TAS, 1886 posts
6 Jul 2018 8:13PM
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lydia said..

Donk107 said..
Hi all

3 mates of mine are bringing a Walker H28 from Melbourne to Hobart and planning to leave early next week

Any thoughts on the forecast and what route would you take

Regards Don



Definitely looking like West coast leaving late Monday early Tuesday.
Nothing really from Tuesday to Friday.
Need plenty of diesel


Hi Lydia

Thanks for your thoughts on this and i have passed the information on to my mates

How much can you trust the forecast and do you think that if the weather turns bad you are better being on the east coast of Tassie rather than the west coast

Regards Don

lydia
642 posts
6 Jul 2018 7:22PM
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Don
What I am seeing there is nothing on the west coast from early Wednesday through Thursday and by late Thursday a building northerly well into Friday.
East coast has strong southerly on Tuesday and Wednesday so you won't get past the corner those days.
Just got to take a bit of a beating early on Tuesday as you leave Melbourne but it gets better very quickly.

Donk107
TAS, 1886 posts
7 Jul 2018 7:54AM
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lydia said..
Don
What I am seeing there is nothing on the west coast from early Wednesday through Thursday and by late Thursday a building northerly well into Friday.
East coast has strong southerly on Tuesday and Wednesday so you won't get past the corner those days.
Just got to take a bit of a beating early on Tuesday as you leave Melbourne but it gets better very quickly.


Hi Lydia

Thanks for the explanation

Regards Don

crustysailor
VIC, 593 posts
7 Jul 2018 8:07PM
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cheers Don, glad to see the spirit of Driftwood goes on.

Good luck with the crossing, it's been blowing brown shorts over the past few days, and more coming apparently.

SandS
VIC, 5215 posts
7 Jul 2018 9:34PM
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maybe wait until next feb

Donk107
TAS, 1886 posts
8 Jul 2018 12:28AM
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SandS said..
maybe wait until next feb


Hi Sands

I think that they are setting off on Tuesday

Regards Don

Donk107
TAS, 1886 posts
8 Jul 2018 1:48AM
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crustysailor said..
cheers Don, glad to see the spirit of Driftwood goes on.

Good luck with the crossing, it's been blowing brown shorts over the past few days, and more coming apparently.


Hi Crusty

She has been bought by a nice bloke who appreciates the work that Hayden has done to her and I look forward to finally seeing her in the flesh

The weather looks a bit dodgy at the moment but if the forecast is correct there are a few good days next week

Regards Don

lydia
642 posts
8 Jul 2018 6:07AM
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Don
Significant change on the models this morning.
East coast is almost a dream run right up until very early Saturday when there is some SW stream but even that does not last long.
If they leave Tuesday am there is almost nothing in Banks Straits on Thursday and what follows is from the north.
Tell them to take extra diesel though.
Cheers

lydia
642 posts
8 Jul 2018 10:00AM
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Good day out on the west coast today but!
Cape Sorrel wave buoy, about 10 to 14 m every 10 seconds

www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT65014.shtml

And Bruny AWS has not really been under 50 knots since very early this morning.

lydia
642 posts
8 Jul 2018 3:25PM
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lydia said..
Don
Significant change on the models this morning.
East coast is almost a dream run right up until very early Saturday when there is some SW stream but even that does not last long.
If they leave Tuesday am there is almost nothing in Banks Straits on Thursday and what follows is from the north.
Tell them to take extra diesel though.
Cheers


Window just gets better!

Donk107
TAS, 1886 posts
8 Jul 2018 6:50PM
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lydia said..



lydia said..
Don
Significant change on the models this morning.
East coast is almost a dream run right up until very early Saturday when there is some SW stream but even that does not last long.
If they leave Tuesday am there is almost nothing in Banks Straits on Thursday and what follows is from the north.
Tell them to take extra diesel though.
Cheers





Window just gets better!




Hi Lydia

It seems to be constantly changing

There are 3 Mormons on board so perhaps they are getting a bit of help from above

What forecast site are you looking at because if have been keeping an eye on Windy

Regards Don

lydia
642 posts
8 Jul 2018 4:59PM
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Don
Not really, just better resolution as you get closer.
For free access go to the Access model and the GFS model on Weatherzone.com.au
There will be slight differences but are generally in agreement.
Meteye has pretty poor resolution generally.
I pay for access to other services.

Just checked out Windy which looks to be a pretty picture of the ECF or the GFS depending on which mode you choose so where the model differ is Friday morning on the upper east coast.

EC31
NSW, 314 posts
8 Jul 2018 10:11PM
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Which model generally has the better reliability, ECF or GFS? We are planning to leave Sydney either Friday or Saturday to go north. The ECF looks a much nicer picture.

lydia
642 posts
9 Jul 2018 5:26AM
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Actually, that is great example of how the models differ and in particular how the GFS model usually overreacts to lows in the south west Pacific.
The Access model is more reliable if there any lows about as the GFS usually exaggerates the effect.
ECM will be close to the access model.
I would go with that.

lydia
642 posts
10 Jul 2018 4:39AM
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Don
Your mates getting away this morning?

Donk107
TAS, 1886 posts
10 Jul 2018 9:52PM
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lydia said..
Don
Your mates getting away this morning?



Hi Lydia

They left at around 10am this morning and overnighting at Waratah Bay tonight

All went well today with the first sail of the boat since HG02 started working on her all those years ago

They are heading for Deal Island tomorrow

Regards Don

samsturdy
NSW, 1224 posts
11 Jul 2018 10:01AM
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Donk107 said..

lydia said..
Don
Your mates getting away this morning?




Hi Lydia

They left at around 10am this morning and overnighting at Waratah Bay tonight

All went well today with the first sail of the boat since HG02 started working on her all those years ago

They are heading for Deal Island tomorrow

Regards Don


Don....I seem to remember HG changing the rig from ketch to sloop. I can't remember if he altered the mast position to compensate,
but it must be handling OK.

Donk107
TAS, 1886 posts
11 Jul 2018 6:42PM
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samsturdy said..

Donk107 said..


lydia said..
Don
Your mates getting away this morning?





Hi Lydia

They left at around 10am this morning and overnighting at Waratah Bay tonight

All went well today with the first sail of the boat since HG02 started working on her all those years ago

They are heading for Deal Island tomorrow

Regards Don



Don....I seem to remember HG changing the rig from ketch to sloop. I can't remember if he altered the mast position to compensate,
but it must be handling OK.


Hi Sam

I was just speaking to them on the Sat phone and at the moment they are not far from Deal Island and they said they motored for a lot of today

The boat is going well under sail and motor and they are happy with her

Re the mast position Hayden removed the mizzen and left the main mast in its original position but they haven't said that it has caused any steering drama's

Most of the sailing has been reaching and running so far and the next couple of days the wind looks to be on the nose so I don't know how much sailing they will be doing

They may even decide to have a look around Deal and Flinder's on the way as there is no real hurry to get back

I will keep updating this thread with their progress

Regards Don

lydia
642 posts
11 Jul 2018 5:02PM
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Don
i did say take extra diesel
so am I on the money so far
pays to check
cheers

Donk107
TAS, 1886 posts
11 Jul 2018 7:29PM
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lydia said..
Don
i did say take extra diesel
so am I on the money so far
pays to check
cheers


Hi Lydia

I will confirm they have the next time i am talking to them

How do you see the weather going in the next few days

On the sites i am looking at there is a few days of Southerly's and then the wind veers west and then north on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday

Regards Don

lydia
642 posts
11 Jul 2018 6:12PM
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Don
Nothing too bad from the south, a bit on Friday morning but by Friday night they will be motoring again.
Hope they have plenty of diesel.
Sat and sun are good days to get south.

Bristolfashion
VIC, 364 posts
11 Jul 2018 9:53PM
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The thing I like about BOM is that they continually monitor the output of all the models and compare it to data coming in from their observation stations. In effect, they choose the best model for you in any given set of conditions. Plus, of course, you have direct access to the observation data itself.

Cheers

Bristol
(In the UK enjoying the heatwave!)

BlueMoon
514 posts
11 Jul 2018 8:39PM
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Bristolfashion said..
Cheers
Bristol
(In the UK enjoying the heatwave!)


"Football's coming home!" & so is Bristol, must be a great atmosphere over there at the moment,
cheers

lydia
642 posts
12 Jul 2018 3:08AM
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Bristolfashion said..
The thing I like about BOM is that they continually monitor the output of all the models and compare it to data coming in from their observation stations. In effect, they choose the best model for you in any given set of conditions. Plus, of course, you have direct access to the observation data itself.

Cheers

Bristol
(In the UK enjoying the heatwave!)



That is no longer the case.
Marine forecasts now usually produced without human intervention right down to the voice recordings.
Aviation has highest priority so all of the limited resources go there.
Marine if there is time except for Tasmania.
Remember BOM does hire science graduates anymore they hire maths graduates.

Guitz
VIC, 384 posts
12 Jul 2018 11:17AM
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Donk107 said..

lydia said..
Don
i did say take extra diesel
so am I on the money so far
pays to check
cheers



Hi Lydia

I will confirm they have the next time i am talking to them

How do you see the weather going in the next few days

On the sites i am looking at there is a few days of Southerly's and then the wind veers west and then north on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday

Regards Don


Last time I went that way, we topped up the fuel tanks at Lady Barron.

lydia
642 posts
12 Jul 2018 1:51PM
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Select to expand quote
Donk107 said..

lydia said..
Don
i did say take extra diesel
so am I on the money so far
pays to check
cheers



Hi Lydia

I will confirm they have the next time i am talking to them

How do you see the weather going in the next few days

On the sites i am looking at there is a few days of Southerly's and then the wind veers west and then north on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday

Regards Don


Don
Still very good
Little bit of southerly late Friday night on the East Coast but by day break it drops right out again.
Good then until Tuesday night.



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"Melbourne to Hobart next week" started by Donk107