SandS said..
But will I? Where is the evidence? And how much better is the chance?
Yes, the guys who never spend much time in the water may have a significantly better chance of survival. But that is not all of us.
Yes you will . The evidence is in any story you have ever heard , where the MOB was wearing a pfd and survived . As opposed to any story you have ever heard , where the MOB was not wearing a pfd and perished.
Even only one account of each event, [ and i know there are many more of the latter] should be enough for you to decide which action will give you a much better chance.of survival ,if you do end up in the water.
You may may wish to role the dice , and back yourself in, to tread water for hours waiting for rescue . But please don't encourage anyone reading this to follow your gambling habits.
PFD were not designed to hang in the locker , there is another fact .
Sorry, that is not logical. The fact that person A was wearing a PFD and survived is NOT proof that the PFD was a factor in their survival.
The fact that person B was not wearing a PFD and died is NOT proof that they would have survived if they wore a PFD. For example, in the 1998 Hobart and 1979 Fastnet several people drowned with PFDs on. Therefore there is not evidence in every story.
The fact that some people who are not good in the water and may be offshore or in cold conditions drown without a PFD does not mean that a person who spends a lot of time in the water and is within a few hundred metres of shore on warm water is likely to drown without a PFD.
You seem to be assuming that I'm ignorant, which is pretty odd considering I have been keenly following safety at sea for 40 years. The opposite is true - I have spent years studying safety at sea and working as an accident investigator and therefore I don't like ignoring the reality of risks. Those realities include the fact that human beings obsess about unlikely risks and ignore more important chronic ones, and that we fall into errors like risk compensation.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensationAbout gambling - you have an increased risk of death today if you do not wear a helmet when driving home from work. Are you going to gamble by doing that? You may wish to roll the dice, and back yourself in, to protect your head in a car or bus crash. But please don't encourage anyone to follow your gambling habits.
Are you going to dice with death by having some wine or beer tonight? That's a gamble, because even moderate drinking increases your chance of death. Are you going to eat some steak? That's a gamble - recent studies are indicating that even a little bit of red meat increases your chances of death? Are you going to not exercise today - that's a gamble because not exercising increases your risk of death.
The point is simple - if you are going to run certain risks it is illogical to scold others for running other risks of similar or lesser magnitude - especially when some of us specifically take measures to alleviate the risk in other ways and when concentrating on one risk (which can easily be made to be extremely unlikely) can cause people to compensate or overlook other risks.
You gamble every time you go on the water. You gamble every time you get into a dinghy, hoist a sail on your yacht and head offshore. You gamble every time you hoist the main and let the mainsheet run. Why do you assume that your gambling is fine and mine is not.
May I ask the last time you tried to get back aboard your own boat unaided? How did it go? Have you proven that your normal crew can get back on board? How did the MOB drill go last time you. tried it on your boat? If you have not done those things aren't you running a serious risk yourself?
May I ask whether you remember about Harvey Bagnall? Do you remember the Tom Curnow story? Do you remember the crewman in the Wednesday race aboard WIngs III? Do you remember Peter Taylor? Do you remember Ray Crawford? If your answer is "no" then you may be running or ignoring a serious risk yourself.
This is a complex, multi-faceted subject and simplistic thinking is not the answer.