stray said..
It would be interesting to compare numbers for dinghy fleets. Maybe a lot of people are staying in dinghys.
Theres not much incentive to go from a boat like a 49er for example to yachts unless you can afford a sports boat or something fun and competative. How will you get someone who is skippering there own mini rocket ship to go be a pleb on an average keelboat?
I know people with young families have a lot less spare time and basically no spare money, with pay packets covering food and bills not much more.
Then there is the time factor. Maybe shorter races so its only 3-4 hours out of your weekend not 3/4 of saturday.
DInghy fleets are dropping. The skiff classes are only doing well where clubs subsidise them. The last NSW Moth Class AGM pointed out that there was one (yes, just one) junior in the class in NSW and yet magazines, national authorities and others screech that "foiling is the future".
The Laser class is now basically juniors, youth and masters. The NSW standard rig Laser titles had just one sailor who was not a Youth or Master, because guys of that age cannot compete with the Olympians so don't bother.
IMHO the issue may be the reverse of what you note. The TP52s and other modern yachts are rippers that can plane beautifully and the increasing disparity of wealth means that there are owners who can splash the cash on their crew. Why would a young sailor spend all their dough on a 49er which has no fleet, when they could sail a TP52 and get nice meals and hotel rooms on the owner's credit card as well as go even faster?
One interesting point is that despite the hype about newer designs, the most popular and widespread fast dinghy is the venerable Sharpie. No carbon, no hype, no assy, no squaretop, no poker machine sponsorship, but good fleets in most states.
Perhaps the biggest problem is that the powers that be are promoting elitist classes that are generally shrinking, and snubbing the classes that people can actually afford and sail. As you say, young families are often scratching these days.
Even in affluent families, there is now a belief that sailing is too expensive. We took a guy and his family out on our scruffy old 28'er for NYE once. He now owns a Sydney 38 because we showed him that he could afford to get into the sport. The fact that a guy on his income didn't believe he could afford to sail is perhaps the #1 problem for the sport.