Sydney Hobart: Now to the tricky part - the Tasmanian coast

6:14 AM Sat 27 Dec 2008 GMT

'The other Weather Briefing from Roger ’Clouds’ Badham - Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2008' Crosbie Lorimer Click Here to view large photo

While the weather models predicted a fast ride last night for the 64th annual Rolex Sydney to Hobart fleet, with solid 20-25 knot breezes, particularly wide offshore, the reality was quite different.

Last night Bob Oatley's Wild Oats XI was expected to street the fleet, but instead she almost parked for an agonizing ninety minutes. In contrast inside her Grant Wharington's Skandia was on the travellator, pushed south by as much as four and a half knots of current.

Again on the outside and further back, Ray Robert's Quantum Racing, the pre-race handicap favourite had a disappointing night.

'We made good gains in the late afternoon but we had a major shut down of the breeze around 2am this morning," says Bryan Northcote, the navigator of Quantum Racing.

'The boats that chose to gybe north east of Montague island into the rhumbline got the biggest dividend: Quest, Cougar II and Yendys. They probably put about 25 miles on us."

'But it is still interesting; we've still got this trough line which is going to drop out today in Bass Strait, so we will see what happens with that.

Peter Harburg's Reichel Pugh 66 Black Jack similarly suffered, on the seaward side of the fleet.

However for the last 8-9 hours, these most easterly boats have been making gains, as the rough line has slid south.

Leading meterologist Roger 'Clouds' Badham comments. 'This afternoon was always going to be the trickiest part of the race and it's not disappointed.

'The trough line has moved from Victoria to the eastern coast of Tasmania.'

Right now the westerly has come in, on Flinders Island there is 20.7 knots from the west and 21.4 knots at Wilson's promontory and at Maria Island is swung to the south west at 19.7

Badham continues 'gradually tonight the north westerly will return, it will fill in from the south and south west and so the most southerly boats will be the first to gain, the rich will get richer.

'There is just not going to be enough pressure tonight. In theory the leaders could do it, but it's looking less likely.

'Normally the Derwent is still particularly between 2-6am, but tomorrow morning there could be as much as 4-6 knots and for the two super maxis, they can power to the finish line with that little breeze.'

It's going to be a long night for the line hours and overall handicap contenders

The leadership battle is closing up, Skandia lead which two hours ago was 5 knots over triple line honours winner Wild Oats XI slipped to 4.5 knots an hour ago and has now shrunk further to 3.9 knots.

by Rob Kothe

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