Moderate flood at Sale as Thomson peak arrives

A peak arriving after the rain stopped

The flooding at Sale is the tail end of the weekend rather than the start of something new, and that distinction matters for anyone planning the next two days.

Rain gauges across Gippsland were quiet on Tuesday morning, with Bairnsdale Airport and Latrobe Valley Airport also registering 0.0 mm for the 24 hours to 9:51am.

Dry above, wet below, the catchment has stopped collecting water while the lower Thomson is still passing what it already holds down towards the Port of Sale.

Moderate flooding was occurring at Sale in the latest Bureau of Meteorology flood warning for the Thomson River, issued at 9:43 pm Monday as warning number 8.

Moderate flooding occurring at Sale, with levels likely to peak early Tuesday morning.

That warning put the likely crest near 3.30 m, a level not reached at the time of the update, with the Sale Wharf gauge then sitting at 3.08 m.

The upstream gauges have already turned

Further up the system the numbers were pointing the right way, the clearest sign that Sale is dealing with a single pulse rather than a continuing rise.

The Thomson at Wandocka read 5.20 m and falling at 9:00 pm Monday, while the Heyfield gauge was at 1.55 m and also falling.

Bundalaguah held steady at 7.01 m at 9:26 pm Monday, the sort of plateau that often shows up as a crest works its way through a reach.

No new rain forecast, flood warnings for catchments that have eased note no significant rainfall is expected over the next few days.

That combination of falling upstream gauges and a dry outlook is why attention has shifted from how high the river goes to how long it takes to drop.

Port of Sale, the lakes and the ramps

Water moving down the Thomson works through the Port of Sale and then on towards Lake Wellington and the wider Gippsland Lakes system.

Boat ramps at Sale and around the lakes can be awkward in these conditions, with debris and floating material carried along by a river running well above its normal level.

Flows then fresh water, the lakes take days to settle after a flood pulse rather than hours, so conditions can look calm while the current still runs hard.

Anyone trailering a boat should inspect the ramp before launching, because approaches and car parks near the water can stay soft and slippery long after a peak passes.

Stay out of it, do not drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater, and call the SES on 132 500 if you need help.

Elsewhere across Victoria

The Latrobe River at Rosedale was in minor flood on Monday, reading 4.15 m and rising at 11:23 am, with a peak expected near 4.20 m overnight into Tuesday.

That warning was due for an update by midday Tuesday, which will show whether the Rosedale gauge has turned the corner yet.

On the Barwon, the Geelong gauge was at 1.48 m and rising on Monday, still below the minor flood level of 2.30 m.

Slow mover, the Barwon may reach around minor flooding at Geelong on Tuesday evening, a reminder that catchments respond on very different clocks.

The Bunyip River warning was finalised on Monday, with Cora Lynn at 3.06 m and falling, just below its minor flood level of 3.10 m.

Even so, the ford at Cora Lynn remains closed, the kind of local detail that catches drivers who assume a final warning means every road has reopened.

The Mitchell River also finished without reaching minor flooding, with Glenaladale falling at 2.01 m against a minor level of 3.00 m.

Tuesday's weather in the Latrobe Valley

Conditions across the Latrobe Valley on Tuesday were a showery westerly pattern rather than anything likely to add much more water to the rivers.

The forecast called for partly cloudy skies with a high chance of showers, becoming less likely during the afternoon, and a top of 18°.

Westerly winds of 30 to 40 km/h were expected to tend south-westerly at 25 to 40 km/h late in the afternoon before easing late in the evening.

Mild and breezy, East Sale Airport sat at 17.1° with 72 per cent humidity and a west wind of 17 km/h at 9:51am.

Latrobe Valley Airport read 16.3° with a west-north-west wind of 30 km/h, while Bairnsdale Airport was 15.6° in a similar airstream.

Pressure was a little above 1015 hPa at all three sites, consistent with the drying westerly flow that has followed the weekend's rain.

Bairnsdale's forecast was warmer again at 23°, with a medium chance of showers and west to south-west winds increasing to 25 to 40 km/h early in the afternoon.

Sun still strong, the UV index was forecast to reach 7 in both districts, with sun protection advised from 9:50am to 4:10pm in the valley.

What would change the picture

The main risk to a steady recession would be another band of rain landing on catchments that are already full, and that is not in the current outlook.

Wednesday looks cooler in the valley, with a minimum of 4° and a maximum of 16° as the post-frontal airmass settles over Gippsland.

Until the next Thomson update, due by 10:30 am Tuesday, the last confirmed figure for Sale remains 3.08 m and rising from 9:18 pm Monday.

Is more rain coming for the Thomson catchment?

No significant rainfall is forecast over the next few days for catchments that have eased, and Tuesday morning's Gippsland gauges recorded 0.0 mm for the previous 24 hours.

How high is the Thomson at Sale?

The last measured height at Sale Wharf was 3.08 m and rising at 9:18 pm Monday, in the moderate flood range, with a crest expected near 3.30 m.

Can I launch a boat at Sale?

Treat ramps with caution, because a river at moderate flood carries debris, runs faster than usual and can leave approaches and car parks soft underfoot.

Is the Cora Lynn ford open?

The ford at Cora Lynn remains closed despite the Bunyip River warning being finalised on Monday with levels falling back below minor flooding.

Who do I call in a flood emergency?

Call the SES on 132 500 for help, and never drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater regardless of how shallow it looks.

Track current Victorian alerts on our Victorian warnings page , and check the Hobart wind forecast if you are chasing the next breeze.