I flew my son home from overseas business class at the start of the pandemic. I didn't know how things would turn out. Do you think I'm now beating myself up because, with the benefit of hindsight, things didn't turn into an apocalypse?

D3 said..

psychojoe said..

D3 said..

psychojoe said..

remery said..
No Association Between Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest and COVID-19 Vaccination

So what you're saying is that although correlation does not equal causation, a lack of correlation proves the impossibility of causation.

What causation? Status Quo was maintained?

Pretty sure the last paragraph explains the findings pretty well.
No variation between pre-covid, pre-vaccine or post vaccine OHCAs.

Exactly. You're mistaking absence of proof for proof of absence. I really expected better of you, probably giving you too much credit.

Proof of what?

Maybe you could provide 'proof*' that unexplained cardiac arrests and deaths are occurring in greater numbers in Australians under 50 since February 2021?

Then we could examine correlations and other evidence to investigate if there is a link between Covid vaccines and unexplained deaths.

The letter remery posted stated it found no variation in OHCA rates Feb 21 -Mar 22. This is obviously not definitive. But is one piece of evidence that says, during the period where over 95% of Australians received 2 doses of Covid vaccines, there was no substantial increase in OHCAs observed.

Personally, I would be interested to see if there is any chang since vaccination rates have dropped and Covid cases increased. Unlikely but it would be an interesting thing to investigate

* Preferably not memes

remery said..
I flew my son home from overseas business class at the start of the pandemic. I didn't know how things would turn out. Do you think I'm now beating myself up because, with the benefit of hindsight, things didn't turn into an apocalypse?

Did you think it was going to turn into an apocalypse ?

How long did you think this for ? And on what basis ?

You do know The Walking Dead wasn't a documentary ?

Carantoc said

Did you think it was going to turn into an apocalypse ?

How long did you think this for ? And on what basis ?

You do know The Walking Dead wasn't a documentary ?

Spanish Flu killed about 33 percent of th world's population including my grandfather. I wasn't going to take that risk with my son. How about you?

Remery should apologise.

remery said..
My bad, Spanish flu *infected* a third of the world's population and only killed 50 million. Reducing life expectancy in the US by 12 years.

Still didn't sound like much fun either way!

TonyAbbott said..
To be fair, the initial and reports from China were apocalyptic. We watched on the news ..
...Insane 5-10% death rates predicted. We soon learnt this was a massive load of bull

Argh yes... "the reports".

Wait....you mean the media reports ? The media reports from China. Not the report from the AHPPC or anything like that.

All your info comes from the daily news bulletin ?

news at six
first at five
first at four
news 24/7
no, no watch us, we have much better stories than them, we are so far ahead of everyone else we even provide you with the news that hasn't happened yet. New headline guaranteed every 4 minutes, just hit refresh, watch the ad and then get a new headline more juicy than the last.....


...chick chick boom

remery said..
Spanish Flu killed about 33 percent of th world's population including my grandfather. I wasn't going to take that risk with my son. How about you?

The concept COVID-19 was going to kill 33% of the worlds population is insane. At what point did even the most pessimistic pandemic expert get remotely close to saying that ?


The worst predictions from any of the modelers was about 0.75%. And that was if there was zero response. And even that was a worst case from the most pessimistic and called out by the others.

CDC prediction in March 2020 for the US was <0.002% deaths in population under 19 and <0.02% in 20to49 age group, if there is zero response. Then 0.5% in entire population, with 80% of those in the over 70 age group, if there is no response.


The CDC also predicted the Covid would likely kill 5 times (or up to 10 times if you fudge the numbers) more people than the flu (if there is zero response to the pandemic).

So, how seriously do you take death from the flu ? Zero ? because 5 x zero is ... very small.


Still, by the time the CDC real numbers made it through the media, through the pollies and back through the media to the WA electorate it seems it had morphed into 33% certain to die even with a state wide lockdown and everyone having 6 shots of a yet to be found vaccine that doesn't do bugger all for most people anyways.

Be-jeezuz, I hope a nut never falls on your head. We'll all be locked down like a chicken-little panicking the sky is falling down.

Flying Dutchman said..

remery said..
My bad, Spanish flu *infected* a third of the world's population and only killed 50 million. Reducing life expectancy in the US by 12 years.

Still didn't sound like much fun either way!

Oh no, it would have been fine.

Unless of course you were one of the 1 to 5.4%. 1 in 100 sounds okay. 1 in 20 not so much. But these are serious numbers and this was at a time when there was large movements of people due to the war, but not as quickly as travel across the globe is today.

I guess whichever way we look at it, the same pandemic today would have better treatment and survival rates even without vaccines. Would I take my chance or take my chance with the vaccine? At 1 in 100 I would take the vaccine.

remery said..
Deaths per million population so far.

Sweden - 2,362
Australia - 778

I suppose we could have under-reacted and allowed three times a many people to die.

It would have been preferable. Although the main exacerbator of deaths was moving the ill into nursing homes so a lesser reaction could have saved more lives.

Carantoc said..

FormulaNova said..
....At 1 in 100 I would take the vaccine.

Fair enough.

But it was never 1:100. Never anywhere close.

So what then if I argue the worst case scenario ? (apparently for a change)


CDC worst case (and as remery pointed out - an inflated worse case primarily designed to sensationalize and spur leadership into action) with zero pandemic measures put in place gave you less than 1 in 5,000 if you are under 49 and of average health.

Given you were in WA already with border closures and mask wearing etc. the "zero pandemic measures" bit was removed and inflated worse case was long gone then 1:5,000 was seriously over the odds.

and if :
Chance of winning anything on the Saturday lotto is 1 in 55.
Chance of being injured in a car accident in any one year is 1:3,200
Chance of dying in a traffic accident in any one year is about 1 in 22,000


So 1:100 you take the vaccine. Fair enough
1 in 3,200 you still take the car. Fair enough

but ..... roughly where on the scale would you not take the covid vaccine ? 1:3,200 ? 1:5,000 ?, 1:22,000 ?

1 in Mr McGowan told me to on the radio this morning ?

FN, just block him. Don't encourage him. Life's short

Carantoc said..

From that report you forgot to quote :

"...Initial projections built worst-case scenarios that would never happen as a means of spurring leadership into action."

So, the "scientific" reports contained known lies intended only to drive whatever political response the author decided they wanted ?

I thought scientific reports were supposed to provide an unbiased analysis of the facts.

Science and advocacy are not the same thing.

I've been working off my phone so it's not easy to read. But I took the report as stating initials calculations were the upper limit of a worst case scenario where over 2 million Americans die because everyone is stupid and nobody wears a mask, socially distances or gets vaccinated. Happily there were not that many stupid people in America and the measures worked, so only a little over a million Americans died.

myscreenname said..

Carantoc said..

FormulaNova said..
....At 1 in 100 I would take the vaccine.

Fair enough.

But it was never 1:100. Never anywhere close.

So what then if I argue the worst case scenario ? (apparently for a change)


CDC worst case (and as remery pointed out - an inflated worse case primarily designed to sensationalize and spur leadership into action) with zero pandemic measures put in place gave you less than 1 in 5,000 if you are under 49 and of average health.

Given you were in WA already with border closures and mask wearing etc. the "zero pandemic measures" bit was removed and inflated worse case was long gone then 1:5,000 was seriously over the odds.

and if :
Chance of winning anything on the Saturday lotto is 1 in 55.
Chance of being injured in a car accident in any one year is 1:3,200
Chance of dying in a traffic accident in any one year is about 1 in 22,000


So 1:100 you take the vaccine. Fair enough
1 in 3,200 you still take the car. Fair enough

but ..... roughly where on the scale would you not take the covid vaccine ? 1:3,200 ? 1:5,000 ?, 1:22,000 ?

1 in Mr McGowan told me to on the radio this morning ?

FN, just block him. Don't encourage him. Life's short

No worries. He is still in the hidden list but sometimes people quote him and I have no self-control

Thanks for quoting him

psychojoe said..

remery

The is a chapter where he asks what would have happened if an airline regulator had introduced compulsory locks on plane cockpits. What wouldn't have happened is 9/11.

It really doesn't matter whether you believe some crusty sand _______ decided to precisely collapse two over insured worthless buildings on a public holiday for the purpose of maximum death, or if you believe it was the nefarious act of others, one thing is for sure,if you believe this to be true you've never heard of a locksmith.

Is this where conspiracy theories start? Lack of comprehension? Lack of noticing details?

It wasn't a public holiday. People were at work there.

The attackers would have been very surprised that the buildings collapsed. No one thought that they would, until they did. If they had, people would have been told to evacuate immediately, but they weren't.

remery said..
I flew my son home from overseas business class at the start of the pandemic. I didn't know how things would turn out. Do you think I'm now beating myself up because, with the benefit of hindsight, things didn't turn into an apocalypse?

Yeah, it was worth it. There were plenty of stories going around about people that packed up their lives in places like the UK, quit their jobs, ended their leases, packed everything up, and then couldn't get a flight out because the airlines were bumping people from flights that were not paying a premium.

The idiots amongst us were saying 'they can just get the next flight back home' but the reality was that airlines were prioritising those that could pay more and scheduling flights was a problem in itself. I have met people that said they were lucky and left quickly and others that have said they took ages to get out as they were always waiting for a phone call to say they were on the next flight. A hell of a way to exist if you are not sure what the world is going to do.

Of course, those of us with psychic abilities knew that it wasn't going to be a problem at all so we bought houses at the beginning, stayed where we were, stocked up on toilet paper and pasta straight away, and now some of 'us' are even posting to this forum