Flying Dutchman said..remery said..
In addition, the vaccine rollout ramped up slowly from February 2021, with high rates of vaccination in August to October 2021 and again in January 2022, but has been low for most of 2022. This does not fit with the timing or shape of the excess mortality. Likely impact in Australia: Negligible.
High vaccination rates 2021 into early 2022. High excess death rates 2022. Negligible connection. Sounds suss.
So, wouldn't there be some sort of correlation between increases in doses with increases in observed deaths?
TLDR: The spikes in excess death rates do not correlate well (or at all) with increases in vaccination rates.
You'd expect there'd be some consistent increase in excess deaths over the course of 2021? 10 million doses by the middle of the year when Delta reared its head, increasing to 40 million doses by the end of the year, but the observed death rate pretty well stuck close to the expected rate for the second half of the year.
Until that big spike in January - Feb 2022, then the rate decreased again until winter.
Peak vaccination rates were July - October 21 (consistently daily 200k - 300k +) not really correlating with a significant increase in observed death rate for 2nd half that year.
The vaccination rates increase again at end of year and progressing through into March, you could almost argue there's correlation with observed increase in death rate. Except the death rate spike drops off sharply while the vaccination rates stay high past the peak before tapering off in March.
Then for the winter increase in death rates, there is an observed increase starting in April/May and peaking in July before rapidly dropping off. Vaccination rates dropped off through out that period, suddenly increasing for Mid-late July before dropping off again (it almost looks like vaccination rates are lagging behind the peak deaths in this case)
By September, the death rate is almost matching 2019s, vaccination rates remain low even when there is an uptick in deaths in December.
It could be that there's significant lag between vaccination and death rate, but if so it's not consistent.
Or maybe the increase in excess deaths from vaccination is actually very small and we need to look at other means of tracking them accurately.